Michael Megrew

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 12:17 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	6	6	0	26	17	105.0	103	56	84	14	40%	.289	5	1.51	4.31	5.05	4.49	8.6	4.2	6.4	1.1	15.1	2.2	2.6
75^o	6	6	0	26	16	100.3	104	57	79	15	40%	.297	1	1.60	4.96	5.57	5.16	9.0	4.6	6.3	1.3	6.7	1.3	1.7
60^o	5	7	0	26	16	95.3	104	59	74	16	40%	.305	-4	1.71	5.69	6.17	5.92	9.5	4.9	6.2	1.4	-2.0	0.4	0.8
50^o	4	7	0	26	16	91.7	104	60	71	16	40%	.312	-7	1.78	6.24	6.61	6.48	9.9	5.2	6.1	1.5	-7.8	-0.2	0.2
40^o	4	7	0	26	15	88.3	104	60	67	17	40%	.318	-11	1.86	6.78	7.05	7.04	10.3	5.5	6.0	1.6	-13.2	-0.7	-0.3
25^o	3	7	0	26	15	83.7	103	61	63	17	40%	.326	-15	1.95	7.49	7.62	7.77	10.8	5.8	6.0	1.8	-19.7	-1.4	-1.0
10^o	2	7	0	26	13	74.3	100	61	54	18	40%	.342	-25	2.17	9.18	8.88	9.52	11.8	6.6	5.8	2.1	-32.4	-2.7	-2.4
Weighted Mean	4	7	0	26	15	89.0	100	57	69	15	40%	.310	-7	1.76	6.15	6.51	6.40	9.8	5.1	6.1	1.5	-6.9	-0.1	0.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
41%	70%	11%	6%	1.22

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 24)	4	7	0	26	15	89.0	100	57	69	15	40%	.310	-7	1.76	6.15	6.51	6.40	9.8	5.1	6.1	1.5	-6.9	-0.1	0.1
2009 (age 25)	4	6	0	30	11	80.0	88	51	63	14	39%	.306	-9	1.73	6.05	6.41	6.28	9.7	5.1	6.2	1.5	-4.4	-0.1	0.2
2010 (age 26)	3	5	0	29	9	67.7	76	45	51	12	37%	.308	-14	1.80	6.35	6.74	6.57	9.9	5.4	6.0	1.5	-5.3	-0.3	0.0
2011 (age 27)	3	5	0	28	9	68.7	77	41	53	10	39%	.313	-8	1.71	5.86	6.17	6.10	9.8	4.7	6.1	1.3	-2.2	0.0	0.2
2012 (age 28)	3	4	0	24	6	55.3	62	27	43	9	39%	.311	-6	1.61	5.69	5.97	5.91	9.8	3.9	6.2	1.4	-0.8	0.1	0.3
2013 (age 29)	2	3	0	24	4	47.3	53	24	37	8	38%	.310	-8	1.63	5.78	6.09	5.98	9.9	4.1	6.3	1.5	-1.0	0.0	0.2
2014 (age 30)	2	2	0	21	3	39.3	44	21	30	6	39%	.312	-7	1.63	5.54	5.89	5.76	9.7	4.2	6.1	1.3	-0.1	0.1	0.3

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.243	.367	.399
vs RHB	.270	.388	.476
Split	-.027	-.021	-.076
LgAvg	-.020	-.021	-.054

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	0.1	$425,000	-9.1	1.9
2009	0.2	$450,000	-6.1	3.0
2010	0.0	$400,000	-6.7	1.0
2011	0.2	$500,000	-3.5	1.5
2012	0.3	$500,000	-1.7	1.3
2013	0.2	$475,000	-1.9	0.8
2014	0.3	$525,000	-0.8	0.5
Peak	1.2	$400,000	0.0	9.6

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	5.16	6.48	7.77	6.40
2009	5.09	6.68	8.02	6.28
2010	5.02	6.19	8.49	6.57
2011	5.05	6.32	8.17	6.10
2012	4.92	6.35	8.46	5.91
2013	4.69	5.93	8.01	5.98
2014	4.93	5.78	9.07	5.76

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	6%	0%	41%
2009	30%	11%	37%
2010	42%	22%	34%
2011	46%	32%	31%
2012	64%	43%	27%
2013	66%	44%	27%
2014	72%	49%	25%

56

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Cory Stewart	2004	52		11	J.A. Happ	2007	40
2	Adam Bostick	2007	47		12	Ken Holubec	2003	39
3	Paul Spoljaric	1995	46		13	Blake Stein	1998	39
4	Eric Cyr	2003	46		14	Kyle Aselton	2007	39
5	Andrew Brown	2005	44		15	Alan Horne	2007	39
6	Brian Fuentes	2000	44		16	Robert Ellis	1995	39
7	Matt Beech	1996	42		17	Adrian Burnside	2001	38
8	Michael O'Connor	2005	41		18	Brett Evert	2005	37
9	Todd Wellemeyer	2003	40		19	Ryan Vogelsong	2001	37
10	Willie Smith	1992	40		20	Erik Schullstrom	1993	36

Player Comments

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2007

Briefly taken away by the Marlins in the 2005 Rule 5 draft after he had missed much of the previous season recovering from Tommy John surgery, Mike Megrew was returned to the Dodgers in mid-April, and still looked raw after recovering from new problems with his shoulder. On the 40-man, for reasons only Ned Colletti can explain.

2005

Lefty, obviously pitched pretty well at Vero Beach. Gotta like the peripherals, gotta like the left-handedness, which at the very least improves his perceived value should he need to be traded. He'll start the season at Double-A, which is kind of the testing ground for prospects. If his K rate stays north of one per inning, you've probably got your garden-variety top prospect.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	VRO	1C	0	2	0	2	2	4.0	9	2	2	1	47%	.444	-132	2.75	20.25	33.37	32.40	24.3	8.1	2.7	5.4	-9.8		-3.0
2006	VRO	1C	2	3	0	18	8	53.0	44	44	62	5	34%	.302	-26	1.66	3.57	7.40	5.59	8.8	10.2	6.3	1.9	0.1		0.7
2007	JAX	2A	6	6	0	21	19	93.3	97	46	90	7	39%	.341	-6	1.53	5.31	6.41	7.73	10.7	4.9	5.8	1.1	-20.7		-0.8

Historical Stats