Devin Mesoraco

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 1:31 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	490	47	26	1	12	55	36	108	1	1	-2.4	.243	.303	.390	-.154	.242	.301	.390	.238	1.3	116-C -10	1.0
75^o	465	38	23	1	10	48	32	106	1	1	-2.2	.227	.285	.357	-.241	.227	.283	.357	.219	-8.3	110-C -9	0.1
60^o	447	33	20	1	9	43	29	104	1	1	-2.0	.217	.272	.335	-.298	.216	.270	.336	.206	-13.9	106-C -8	-0.5
50^o	438	31	19	1	8	41	28	103	1	1	-1.9	.212	.267	.325	-.325	.212	.265	.326	.200	-16.3	104-C -8	-0.7
40^o	423	27	18	1	7	37	26	101	1	1	-1.8	.204	.257	.309	-.368	.204	.255	.310	.189	-19.9	101-C -8	-1.1
25^o	405	23	16	1	6	32	24	98	1	1	-1.7	.196	.247	.292	-.414	.195	.245	.292	.176	-23.5	97-C -7	-1.5
10^o	377	19	13	0	5	26	20	94	1	1	-1.5	.184	.232	.267	-.480	.183	.231	.267	.156	-27.6	90-C -6	-2.0
Weighted Mean	444	31	20	1	8	42	28	104	1	1	-1.9	.213	.267	.326	-.303	.212	.265	.326	.200	-13.9	105-C -8	-0.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
55%	72%	14%	7%	1.07

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 21)	444	31	20	1	8	42	28	104	1	1	-1.9	.213	.267	.326	-.303	.212	.265	.326	.200	-13.9	105-C -8	-0.6
2010 (age 22)	403	30	18	1	8	39	28	89	1	1	-1.7	.223	.281	.345	-.282	.219	.275	.341	.213	-8.8	96-C -7	0.1
2011 (age 23)	396	32	17	1	10	39	28	84	1	1	-1.5	.231	.292	.363	-.233	.227	.286	.359	.224	-4.0	95-C -8	0.4
2012 (age 24)	403	34	18	1	10	43	30	82	1	1	-1.4	.236	.298	.374	-.205	.232	.292	.370	.231	-1.6	96-C -8	0.6
2013 (age 25)	336	27	15	1	9	36	25	67	1	1	-1.0	.243	.304	.387	-.173	.238	.298	.382	.237	0.4	81-C -6	0.7
2014 (age 26)	315	24	13	1	9	36	26	64	1	1	-0.9	.227	.292	.373	-.222	.223	.286	.369	.228	-1.9	76-C -8	0.3
2015 (age 27)	352	27	14	1	10	36	26	69	1	1	-0.6	.225	.286	.365	-.246	.221	.280	.361	.222	-2.3	85-C -8	0.2

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.228	.285	.353
vs RHP	.208	.260	.314
Split	+.020	+.024	+.040
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-16.9	-8.0	-0.6	$400,000	-21.6	0.0
2010	-10.6	-7.0	0.1	$400,000	-14.5	0.2
2011	-6.2	-8.0	0.4	$400,000	-10.0	0.1
2012	-3.8	-8.0	0.6	$425,000	-6.7	1.9
2013	-1.2	-6.0	0.7	$1,075,000	-2.9	1.8
2014	-3.9	-8.0	0.3	$400,000	-5.8	1.0
2015	-6.3	-8.0	0.2	$400,000	-4.7	1.4
Peak			2.4	$1,900,000	-3.3	8.4

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.219	.200	.176	.200
2010	.229	.216	.186	.213
2011	.245	.223	.191	.224
2012	.254	.236	.209	.231
2013	.267	.236	.208	.237
2014	.263	.225	.194	.228
2015	.254	.228	.197	.222

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	7%	0%	55%
2010	18%	7%	69%
2011	29%	17%	67%
2012	29%	22%	69%
2013	47%	33%	74%
2014	55%	34%	67%
2015	65%	53%	66%

58

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Rene Rivera	2004	56		11	Danny Sheaffer	1982	45
2	John Gibbons	1983	52		12	Joe Oliver	1986	44
3	Wynn Beck	1991	50		13	Ryan Luzinski	1994	44
4	Lance Jennings	1992	48		14	Scott Heard	2002	43
5	Mike Fitzgerald	1981	48		15	Bob Cummings	1981	43
6	Kurt Brown	1988	47		16	Bob Geren	1982	42
7	Derek Parks	1989	47		17	Walt McKeel	1993	42
8	Mike Berger	1983	46		18	Paul Williams	1989	42
9	Dave Valle	1981	45		19	Trey McCall	1988	41
10	Phil Lombardi	1984	45		20	Brandon Snyder	2007	41

Player Comments

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2008

After taking Mesoraco with the fifteenth overall pick in June, the Reds started every description of his talents with the word "plus." Others aren't as sold on him, describing him as a late first-round talent drafted on scarcity and organizational need. In his professional debut in the Gulf Coast League, Mesoraco showed none of the plus power the Reds trumpeted, but he was limited by hand injuries. He might have been over-drafted, but he's still an impressive talent and was the best high school catcher available in last year's draft.

Historical Stats