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Adam Miller
Cleveland Indians [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 23
6' 4"
200 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2005 MHV 1A 0 0 0 3 3 10.7 17 4 6 0 49% .472 -55 1.96 5.05 13.32 10.00 18.0 7.0 1.0 1.0 -4.4 -0.2
2005 KIN 1C 2 4 0 12 12 59.7 76 17 45 5 48% .376 -27 1.56 4.82 9.58 10.28 14.5 4.4 3.5 1.6 -26.9 -1.8
2006 AKR 2A 15 6 0 26 24 153.2 129 43 157 9 56% .301 11 1.12 2.76 4.84 4.75 9.3 3.4 6.1 1.0 13.4 4.2
2006 BUF 3A 0 0 0 1 1 4.0 4 3 4 0 46% .308 -2 1.75 6.75 5.26 8.31 8.3 6.2 6.2 0.0 -1.3 0.0
2007 BUF 3A 5 4 0 19 11 65.3 68 21 68 4 54% .346 7 1.36 4.82 5.33 6.21 10.4 3.3 6.9 0.9 -4.2 0.7


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 12:29 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 7 4 0 18 18 102.0 98 38 85 8 50% .298 22 1.33 3.61 3.68 3.65 8.2 3.0 6.7 0.7 23.8 3.2 3.2
75o 6 5 0 23 15 97.3 97 39 80 8 50% .306 15 1.39 4.02 3.97 4.06 8.6 3.2 6.6 0.8 17.9 2.4 2.7
60o 6 5 0 23 15 92.7 97 39 75 9 50% .314 12 1.46 4.48 4.30 4.51 9.0 3.4 6.5 0.8 11.8 1.8 2.0
50o 5 6 0 23 14 88.3 96 39 71 9 50% .321 9 1.52 4.91 4.60 4.93 9.3 3.5 6.4 0.9 6.7 1.2 1.5
40o 4 6 0 23 13 83.7 95 38 66 9 50% .328 6 1.58 5.36 4.93 5.38 9.7 3.7 6.3 0.9 1.7 0.7 1.0
25o 3 6 0 22 12 75.0 91 37 57 9 50% .343 0 1.71 6.29 5.59 6.29 10.5 4.0 6.1 1.0 -7.0 -0.2 0.1
10o 2 5 0 19 8 51.7 77 32 35 8 50% .381 -16 2.10 9.03 7.57 8.99 12.7 5.1 5.5 1.3 -22.0 -1.8 -1.6
Weighted Mean 5 5 0 24 13 86.3 92 37 69 8 50% .318 9 1.49 4.76 4.47 4.79 9.2 3.5 6.5 0.9 7.7 1.3 1.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

46%

72%

15%

24%

1.11

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 23) 5 5 0 24 13 86.3 92 37 69 8 50% .318 9 1.49 4.76 4.47 4.79 9.2 3.5 6.5 0.9 7.7 1.3 1.6
2009 (age 24) 5 5 0 26 13 91.3 97 39 73 9 50% .316 7 1.48 4.66 4.43 4.69 9.1 3.4 6.4 0.8 8.9 1.5 1.8
2010 (age 25) 6 6 0 29 16 107.0 112 45 82 10 49% .311 7 1.46 4.59 4.30 4.63 9.0 3.4 6.2 0.8 9.7 1.8 1.9
2011 (age 26) 6 6 1 31 15 108.0 114 41 80 11 51% .308 6 1.44 4.69 4.27 4.74 9.1 3.1 6.0 0.9 8.5 1.7 1.8
2012 (age 27) 5 6 1 30 12 92.0 100 34 69 9 51% .316 5 1.46 4.74 4.40 4.77 9.4 3.0 6.0 0.9 6.6 1.3 1.4
2013 (age 28) 4 4 1 29 8 75.3 80 27 58 7 51% .314 5 1.43 4.57 4.22 4.61 9.2 2.9 6.2 0.8 7.6 1.1 1.5
2014 (age 29) 4 3 1 25 7 62.3 66 23 48 7 50% .309 4 1.42 4.47 4.31 4.49 9.1 3.0 6.2 1.0 7.2 1.0 1.3

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .266 .371 .422
vs RHB .268 .345 .387
Split -.001 +.026 +.036
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 1.6 $2,925,000 7.7 9.9
2009 1.8 $3,500,000 8.9 10.3
2010 1.9 $4,075,000 9.8 11.1
2011 1.8 $3,975,000 8.6 9.2
2012 1.4 $3,225,000 6.6 6.0
2013 1.5 $3,775,000 7.6 8.6
2014 1.3 $3,650,000 7.2 7.9
Peak 9.9 $15,825,000 41.7 55.1


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 4.06 4.93 6.29 4.79
2009 3.96 4.74 6.02 4.69
2010 4.10 4.89 6.29 4.63
2011 4.10 5.03 6.09 4.74
2012 4.21 4.89 6.07 4.77
2013 3.82 4.94 6.42 4.61
2014 3.51 4.99 5.93 4.49


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 24% 0% 46%
2009 25% 8% 50%
2010 26% 13% 42%
2011 30% 16% 37%
2012 36% 21% 36%
2013 45% 31% 35%
2014 51% 40% 31%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

56

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Kevin Gross 1985 56 11 Johnny Klippstein 1951 42
2 Colby Lewis 2003 51 12 Rob Bell 2000 42
3 J.D. Martin 2006 50 13 Bruce Kison 1973 41
4 Cesar Carrillo 2007 49 14 John Urrea 1978 40
5 Ted Abernathy 1956 49 15 Chris Carpenter 1998 40
6 Mike Witt 1984 47 16 Mike Morgan 1983 39
7 Jim Gott 1983 46 17 Craig Hansen 2007 38
8 Jose Rijo 1988 44 18 Adam Wainwright 2005 38
9 Russ Kemmerer 1955 44 19 Don Stanhouse 1974 38
10 Jack Fisher 1962 44 20 Willard Nixon 1952 38

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Miller was consistently touching triple digits with his heat at the end of 2004, but 2005 was something of a lost season as he battled arm soreness that never really went away. Finally healthy in 2006, Miller didn`t throw as hard as he used to (though at 94-97 MPH he still has plenty of stuff), but a funny thing happened: he became a much better pitcher. His slider is now a true major league out-pitch, and he made dramatic improvements with his command and control. The Indians would like to give him some Triple-A experience in 2007, but he`s very close to ready.

2005

One of the top pitching prospects in the business, the Indians picked up then-prep pitcher Miller with the supplemental first-round pick they received for losing Jim Thome. It's been money well spent so far, though keep in mind that he's yet to see Double-A. There is a lot here to like, though, including good stuff, two really strong pitches and a third on the way, and a reputation for dedication and focus, which gives him a developmental advantage over thick-headed man-children who've graduated from the Jimmy Haynes School of Self-Defeatism. We're willing to go out on a limb and say he will be a better pitcher for Cleveland than Smoky Joe Wood ever was. Of course, Smoky Joe mostly played the outfield by the time he got to Cleveland.


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