Adam Miller

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 12:29 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	7	4	0	18	18	102.0	98	38	85	8	50%	.298	22	1.33	3.61	3.68	3.65	8.2	3.0	6.7	0.7	23.8	3.2	3.2
75^o	6	5	0	23	15	97.3	97	39	80	8	50%	.306	15	1.39	4.02	3.97	4.06	8.6	3.2	6.6	0.8	17.9	2.4	2.7
60^o	6	5	0	23	15	92.7	97	39	75	9	50%	.314	12	1.46	4.48	4.30	4.51	9.0	3.4	6.5	0.8	11.8	1.8	2.0
50^o	5	6	0	23	14	88.3	96	39	71	9	50%	.321	9	1.52	4.91	4.60	4.93	9.3	3.5	6.4	0.9	6.7	1.2	1.5
40^o	4	6	0	23	13	83.7	95	38	66	9	50%	.328	6	1.58	5.36	4.93	5.38	9.7	3.7	6.3	0.9	1.7	0.7	1.0
25^o	3	6	0	22	12	75.0	91	37	57	9	50%	.343	0	1.71	6.29	5.59	6.29	10.5	4.0	6.1	1.0	-7.0	-0.2	0.1
10^o	2	5	0	19	8	51.7	77	32	35	8	50%	.381	-16	2.10	9.03	7.57	8.99	12.7	5.1	5.5	1.3	-22.0	-1.8	-1.6
Weighted Mean	5	5	0	24	13	86.3	92	37	69	8	50%	.318	9	1.49	4.76	4.47	4.79	9.2	3.5	6.5	0.9	7.7	1.3	1.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
46%	72%	15%	24%	1.11

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 23)	5	5	0	24	13	86.3	92	37	69	8	50%	.318	9	1.49	4.76	4.47	4.79	9.2	3.5	6.5	0.9	7.7	1.3	1.6
2009 (age 24)	5	5	0	26	13	91.3	97	39	73	9	50%	.316	7	1.48	4.66	4.43	4.69	9.1	3.4	6.4	0.8	8.9	1.5	1.8
2010 (age 25)	6	6	0	29	16	107.0	112	45	82	10	49%	.311	7	1.46	4.59	4.30	4.63	9.0	3.4	6.2	0.8	9.7	1.8	1.9
2011 (age 26)	6	6	1	31	15	108.0	114	41	80	11	51%	.308	6	1.44	4.69	4.27	4.74	9.1	3.1	6.0	0.9	8.5	1.7	1.8
2012 (age 27)	5	6	1	30	12	92.0	100	34	69	9	51%	.316	5	1.46	4.74	4.40	4.77	9.4	3.0	6.0	0.9	6.6	1.3	1.4
2013 (age 28)	4	4	1	29	8	75.3	80	27	58	7	51%	.314	5	1.43	4.57	4.22	4.61	9.2	2.9	6.2	0.8	7.6	1.1	1.5
2014 (age 29)	4	3	1	25	7	62.3	66	23	48	7	50%	.309	4	1.42	4.47	4.31	4.49	9.1	3.0	6.2	1.0	7.2	1.0	1.3

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.266	.371	.422
vs RHB	.268	.345	.387
Split	-.001	+.026	+.036
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	1.6	$2,925,000	7.7	9.9
2009	1.8	$3,500,000	8.9	10.3
2010	1.9	$4,075,000	9.8	11.1
2011	1.8	$3,975,000	8.6	9.2
2012	1.4	$3,225,000	6.6	6.0
2013	1.5	$3,775,000	7.6	8.6
2014	1.3	$3,650,000	7.2	7.9
Peak	9.9	$15,825,000	41.7	55.1

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	4.06	4.93	6.29	4.79
2009	3.96	4.74	6.02	4.69
2010	4.10	4.89	6.29	4.63
2011	4.10	5.03	6.09	4.74
2012	4.21	4.89	6.07	4.77
2013	3.82	4.94	6.42	4.61
2014	3.51	4.99	5.93	4.49

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	24%	0%	46%
2009	25%	8%	50%
2010	26%	13%	42%
2011	30%	16%	37%
2012	36%	21%	36%
2013	45%	31%	35%
2014	51%	40%	31%

56

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Kevin Gross	1985	56		11	Johnny Klippstein	1951	42
2	Colby Lewis	2003	51		12	Rob Bell	2000	42
3	J.D. Martin	2006	50		13	Bruce Kison	1973	41
4	Cesar Carrillo	2007	49		14	John Urrea	1978	40
5	Ted Abernathy	1956	49		15	Chris Carpenter	1998	40
6	Mike Witt	1984	47		16	Mike Morgan	1983	39
7	Jim Gott	1983	46		17	Craig Hansen	2007	38
8	Jose Rijo	1988	44		18	Adam Wainwright	2005	38
9	Russ Kemmerer	1955	44		19	Don Stanhouse	1974	38
10	Jack Fisher	1962	44		20	Willard Nixon	1952	38

Player Comments

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2007

Miller was consistently touching triple digits with his heat at the end of 2004, but 2005 was something of a lost season as he battled arm soreness that never really went away. Finally healthy in 2006, Miller didn`t throw as hard as he used to (though at 94-97 MPH he still has plenty of stuff), but a funny thing happened: he became a much better pitcher. His slider is now a true major league out-pitch, and he made dramatic improvements with his command and control. The Indians would like to give him some Triple-A experience in 2007, but he`s very close to ready.

2005

One of the top pitching prospects in the business, the Indians picked up then-prep pitcher Miller with the supplemental first-round pick they received for losing Jim Thome. It's been money well spent so far, though keep in mind that he's yet to see Double-A. There is a lot here to like, though, including good stuff, two really strong pitches and a third on the way, and a reputation for dedication and focus, which gives him a developmental advantage over thick-headed man-children who've graduated from the Jimmy Haynes School of Self-Defeatism. We're willing to go out on a limb and say he will be a better pitcher for Cleveland than Smoky Joe Wood ever was. Of course, Smoky Joe mostly played the outfield by the time he got to Cleveland.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	MHV	1A	0	0	0	3	3	10.7	17	4	6	0	49%	.472	-55	1.96	5.05	13.32	10.00	18.0	7.0	1.0	1.0	-4.4		-0.2
2005	KIN	1C	2	4	0	12	12	59.7	76	17	45	5	48%	.376	-27	1.56	4.82	9.58	10.28	14.5	4.4	3.5	1.6	-26.9		-1.8
2006	AKR	2A	15	6	0	26	24	153.2	129	43	157	9	56%	.301	11	1.12	2.76	4.84	4.75	9.3	3.4	6.1	1.0	13.4		4.2
2006	BUF	3A	0	0	0	1	1	4.0	4	3	4	0	46%	.308	-2	1.75	6.75	5.26	8.31	8.3	6.2	6.2	0.0	-1.3		0.0
2007	BUF	3A	5	4	0	19	11	65.3	68	21	68	4	54%	.346	7	1.36	4.82	5.33	6.21	10.4	3.3	6.9	0.9	-4.2		0.7

Historical Stats