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He's probably very handsome. Beau Mills
Cleveland Indians [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Third Base
Bats L
Age 21
6' 3"
220 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2007 MHV 1A 33 5 2 0 0 1 3 7 0 0 0.2 .179 .303 .250 -.230 .133 .212 .233 .119 -8.1 -0.2
2007 LKC 1B 198 32 12 1 5 36 14 38 0 0 0.6 .271 .333 .435 .051 .219 .266 .350 .214 -6.4 22-3B -2 0.3
2007 KIN 1C 48 7 6 0 1 5 4 8 0 0 0.2 .275 .375 .500 .236 .233 .292 .419 .246 -0.3 0.1


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/18/08 2:07 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 525 55 33 3 13 61 38 124 5 3 0.3 .253 .313 .417 -.066 .251 .312 .432 .260 3.8 124-3B -8 2.4
75o 512 47 30 2 11 56 34 127 5 2 0.3 .237 .293 .384 -.154 .235 .292 .398 .242 -7.2 121-3B -7 1.5
60o 502 42 28 2 10 52 31 129 4 2 0.3 .226 .278 .360 -.219 .224 .277 .373 .228 -14.9 118-3B -7 0.8
50o 498 40 27 2 9 51 30 129 4 2 0.3 .222 .273 .351 -.243 .220 .272 .363 .222 -17.6 118-3B -7 0.6
40o 493 37 26 2 9 49 28 130 4 2 0.2 .216 .266 .339 -.274 .214 .265 .351 .215 -21.1 116-3B -7 0.2
25o 480 32 24 1 7 45 25 133 4 2 0.2 .204 .249 .313 -.345 .202 .248 .324 .197 -28.8 113-3B -6 -0.5
10o 460 25 21 1 5 38 20 135 3 2 0.2 .187 .227 .277 -.440 .185 .226 .287 .169 -38.2 109-3B -6 -1.4
Weighted Mean 566 48 31 2 11 59 34 147 5 3 0.3 .222 .273 .352 -.240 .220 .273 .365 .222 -18.6 133-3B -7 1.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

58%

74%

16%

12%

1.21

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 21) 566 48 31 2 11 59 34 147 5 3 0.3 .222 .273 .352 -.240 .220 .273 .365 .222 -18.6 133-3B -7 1.1
2009 (age 22) 546 49 31 2 11 56 36 131 5 3 0.2 .231 .287 .365 -.193 .232 .291 .385 .232 -11.0 128-3B -5 1.5
2010 (age 23) 500 46 28 2 12 56 35 118 4 2 0.2 .237 .297 .384 -.147 .239 .301 .406 .243 -5.4 118-3B -5 1.9
2011 (age 24) 513 51 30 2 13 58 36 118 4 3 0.1 .246 .304 .401 -.106 .248 .308 .424 .250 -0.8 121-3B -6 1.8
2012 (age 25) 501 52 29 2 15 61 38 114 4 2 0.1 .248 .313 .421 -.064 .250 .317 .445 .260 2.5 118-3B -7 1.8
2013 (age 26) 444 40 25 2 11 51 30 99 3 2 0.1 .243 .297 .395 -.127 .245 .301 .418 .246 -1.9 105-3B -6 1.1
2014 (age 27) 576 63 36 2 16 73 43 124 4 3 0.1 .253 .310 .426 -.059 .254 .314 .450 .260 2.3 135-3B -6 1.6

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .196 .245 .306
vs RHP .230 .285 .379
Split -.034 -.040 -.073
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 -0.2 1.3 1.1 $1,150,000 -16.3 0.4
2009 0.3 1.3 1.5 $1,750,000 -7.2 1.4
2010 0.7 1.2 1.9 $2,400,000 -1.4 2.8
2011 0.9 1.0 1.8 $2,825,000 1.9 6.1
2012 1.1 0.7 1.8 $3,350,000 3.8 4.6
2013 0.5 0.7 1.1 $1,625,000 -0.4 1.7
2014 0.8 0.8 1.6 $3,600,000 4.3 1.9
Peak 9.8 $9,875,000 14.2 18.5


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .242 .222 .197 .222
2009 .248 .229 .200 .232
2010 .265 .241 .218 .243
2011 .277 .248 .221 .250
2012 .281 .263 .230 .260
2013 .262 .238 .210 .246
2014 .274 .257 .229 .260


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 12% 0% 58%
2009 10% 6% 62%
2010 14% 8% 74%
2011 26% 21% 72%
2012 33% 31% 72%
2013 46% 39% 68%
2014 51% 51% 68%

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