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He's probably very handsome. Jesus Montero
New York Yankees [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 18
6' 4"
225 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2007 YAN 0R 123 13 6 0 3 19 12 18 0 0 -2.4 .280 .366 .421 .147 .221 .282 .336 .216 -9.8 21-C -5 0.0


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/18/08 2:16 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 537 43 28 1 11 58 37 116 7 3 -1.0 .243 .299 .375 -.150 .244 .303 .392 .246 2.8 126-C -7 2.8
75o 507 33 23 1 9 50 31 118 6 3 -0.9 .226 .277 .339 -.248 .226 .281 .353 .224 -9.5 120-C -7 1.6
60o 482 27 20 1 7 43 27 118 5 3 -0.8 .212 .261 .311 -.322 .213 .264 .324 .206 -17.8 114-C -7 0.7
50o 467 23 19 1 6 40 25 118 5 2 -0.7 .205 .251 .296 -.362 .206 .254 .309 .196 -21.8 110-C -7 0.3
40o 460 22 18 1 6 38 24 118 5 2 -0.7 .202 .247 .289 -.380 .202 .250 .301 .191 -23.6 109-C -7 0.1
25o 438 18 16 1 5 33 21 118 4 2 -0.6 .193 .235 .269 -.433 .193 .238 .281 .175 -28.1 104-C -7 -0.4
10o 403 13 13 1 3 26 17 116 4 2 -0.6 .180 .218 .242 -.505 .180 .221 .253 .150 -33.0 96-C -6 -1.0
Weighted Mean 485 24 19 1 6 41 25 124 5 3 -0.7 .203 .249 .292 -.372 .204 .252 .305 .192 -22.4 115-C -6 0.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

25%

31%

52%

10%

1.42

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 18) 485 24 19 1 6 41 25 124 5 3 -0.7 .203 .249 .292 -.372 .204 .252 .305 .192 -22.4 115-C -6 0.9
2009 (age 19) 503 30 21 1 8 46 29 119 6 3 -0.8 .217 .266 .321 -.296 .221 .274 .341 .212 -13.7 119-C -6 1.5
2010 (age 20) 517 34 24 1 9 50 32 118 5 2 -0.8 .224 .277 .340 -.248 .228 .284 .362 .224 -7.9 122-C -5 1.7
2011 (age 21) 503 37 25 2 10 55 33 105 5 3 -0.8 .239 .294 .368 -.173 .244 .302 .391 .240 0.0 119-C -4 2.3
2012 (age 22) 521 45 26 2 13 63 37 103 6 3 -0.7 .253 .310 .396 -.099 .257 .318 .421 .256 6.5 123-C -7 2.7
2013 (age 23) 541 47 25 2 14 70 37 95 6 2 -0.7 .253 .306 .398 -.103 .257 .314 .423 .254 5.6 127-C -9 2.3
2014 (age 24) 520 47 26 2 16 73 38 104 5 2 -0.6 .255 .309 .419 -.068 .259 .318 .446 .262 7.6 122-C -5 2.6

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .220 .267 .319
vs RHP .199 .243 .281
Split +.020 +.024 +.038
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 -1.3 2.2 0.9 $975,000 -24.7 0.6
2009 -0.5 2.0 1.5 $1,700,000 -14.9 1.0
2010 0.0 1.8 1.7 $2,125,000 -9.3 1.3
2011 0.5 1.8 2.3 $3,400,000 -0.6 6.6
2012 1.0 1.7 2.7 $5,800,000 6.7 13.4
2013 0.9 1.5 2.3 $5,000,000 4.9 8.1
2014 1.0 1.6 2.6 $6,650,000 7.9 10.1
Peak 16.3 $23,650,000 38.0 60.9


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .224 .196 .175 .192
2009 .240 .198 .169 .212
2010 .246 .218 .192 .224
2011 .258 .241 .196 .240
2012 .278 .239 .226 .256
2013 .275 .251 .227 .254
2014 .265 .257 .234 .262


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 10% 0% 25%
2009 8% 8% 34%
2010 14% 13% 46%
2011 20% 17% 57%
2012 30% 29% 64%
2013 33% 33% 67%
2014 42% 38% 69%

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