<< PECOTA Home Player Search     
');// -->

He's probably very handsome. Daniel Murphy
New York Mets [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Third Base
Bats L
Age 23
6' 1"
210 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 KNG 0R 37 2 0 0 2 7 4 1 0 0 -0.2 .273 .351 .455 .136 .265 .324 .353 .238 -0.6 0.0
2006 MTS 0R 22 2 0 0 0 0 4 3 0 0 0.8 .056 .227 .056 -.518 .158 .273 .158 .147 -7.2 0.0
2006 BRO 1A 34 2 1 0 0 3 4 3 0 0 -0.1 .241 .324 .276 -.034 .200 .265 .233 .180 -6.3 0.0
2007 SLU 1C 559 68 34 3 11 78 42 61 6 3 0.3 .285 .338 .430 .096 .250 .299 .391 .240 3.1 131-3B 13 4.0


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/19/08 1:13 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 595 72 40 2 12 67 47 71 7 3 0.0 .280 .339 .431 -.007 .284 .343 .449 .270 22.0 139-3B 9 5.4
75o 574 62 36 2 11 63 43 72 6 3 0.0 .267 .324 .404 -.080 .271 .328 .421 .256 11.2 135-3B 8 4.4
60o 550 53 32 2 9 60 39 72 5 3 0.0 .254 .308 .376 -.155 .257 .312 .392 .241 0.7 129-3B 6 3.3
50o 535 47 30 1 8 57 36 72 5 3 0.0 .245 .298 .358 -.204 .248 .301 .373 .231 -5.5 126-3B 6 2.7
40o 519 42 28 1 6 55 34 72 4 3 0.0 .236 .288 .340 -.252 .240 .291 .354 .220 -11.4 122-3B 5 2.0
25o 505 38 26 1 6 53 31 71 4 3 0.0 .230 .280 .326 -.289 .233 .283 .340 .212 -15.7 119-3B 4 1.6
10o 478 31 22 1 4 49 28 71 3 2 0.0 .217 .264 .300 -.362 .220 .267 .312 .194 -23.1 113-3B 3 0.7
Weighted Mean 583 56 33 2 9 61 40 77 5 3 0.0 .248 .302 .365 -.185 .252 .305 .380 .233 0.1 137-3B 6 3.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

30%

54%

21%

8%

1.03

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 23) 583 56 33 2 9 61 40 77 5 3 0.0 .248 .302 .365 -.185 .252 .305 .380 .233 0.1 137-3B 6 3.1
2009 (age 24) 563 57 33 2 10 63 41 73 5 3 0.0 .258 .313 .390 -.125 .257 .312 .398 .245 4.0 132-3B 6 3.0
2010 (age 25) 507 48 28 2 9 57 38 64 4 3 0.0 .254 .312 .382 -.142 .253 .310 .390 .242 1.5 120-3B 2 1.9
2011 (age 26) 475 44 27 1 9 55 35 57 4 2 0.0 .256 .313 .387 -.132 .255 .311 .395 .244 2.2 112-3B 1 1.8
2012 (age 27) 496 50 29 2 10 62 39 59 4 2 0.0 .262 .322 .404 -.088 .262 .321 .413 .253 4.3 117-3B 1 1.6
2013 (age 28) 537 56 30 2 11 63 40 62 4 3 0.0 .265 .320 .403 -.092 .264 .318 .411 .250 3.3 126-3B 3 1.4
2014 (age 29) 425 40 23 1 9 51 32 52 3 2 -0.1 .267 .323 .406 -.080 .266 .322 .415 .253 3.9 101-3B 1 1.4

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .221 .273 .310
vs RHP .258 .316 .402
Split -.037 -.043 -.092
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.3 2.7 3.1 $4,400,000 3.1 4.1
2009 0.8 2.2 3.0 $5,225,000 7.0 7.9
2010 0.5 1.4 1.9 $2,800,000 1.8 2.8
2011 0.5 1.3 1.8 $2,900,000 2.3 2.8
2012 0.6 0.9 1.6 $2,925,000 3.6 4.5
2013 0.5 0.9 1.4 $2,825,000 3.9 5.0
2014 0.5 0.8 1.4 $3,100,000 3.9 5.4
Peak 12.7 $15,950,000 22.6 28.3


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .256 .231 .212 .233
2009 .265 .250 .235 .245
2010 .264 .250 .227 .242
2011 .263 .241 .221 .244
2012 .279 .260 .230 .253
2013 .269 .254 .241 .250
2014 .285 .259 .236 .253


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 8% 0% 30%
2009 20% 13% 44%
2010 40% 24% 39%
2011 46% 28% 29%
2012 60% 48% 36%
2013 69% 56% 31%
2014 66% 51% 28%

Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2008 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.