Drew Naylor

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/10/09 3:35 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	7	8	0	23	23	128.7	136	54	99	18	44%	.300	17	1.48	5.04	-1	5.20	9.4	3.3	5.9	1.2	6.8	1.7	1.8
75^o	7	8	0	22	22	123.3	137	54	91	19	44%	.307	14	1.55	5.47	-1	5.64	9.9	3.5	5.7	1.4	0.3	1.0	1.1
60^o	6	8	0	22	22	114.7	137	53	79	20	44%	.317	8	1.66	6.20	-1	6.36	10.6	3.7	5.4	1.5	-9.2	0.0	0.0
50^o	5	8	0	21	21	109.3	137	53	73	21	44%	.323	5	1.73	6.64	0	6.81	11.2	3.8	5.1	1.7	-14.4	-0.6	-0.6
40^o	5	8	0	21	21	105.3	136	52	68	21	44%	.328	2	1.78	7.00	0	7.16	11.5	3.9	5.0	1.8	-18.2	-1.0	-1.0
25^o	4	8	0	20	20	100.0	135	51	61	22	44%	.334	-1	1.86	7.50	0	7.65	12.1	4.0	4.7	1.9	-22.9	-1.5	-1.5
10^o	3	8	0	24	17	86.3	131	48	45	22	45%	.349	-14	2.07	8.86	0	8.98	13.5	4.4	4.1	2.2	-33.0	-2.6	-2.7
Weighted Mean	6	9	0	23	23	119.3	146	56	81	22	44%	.321	7	1.70	6.44	-1	6.60	10.9	3.7	5.2	1.6	-11.9	-0.4	-0.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
21%	53%	12%	9%	1.19

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2009 (age 23)	6	9	0	23	23	119.3	146	56	81	22	44%	.321	7	1.70	6.44	-1	6.60	10.9	3.7	5.2	1.6	-11.9	-0.4	-0.5
2010 (age 24)	5	7	0	27	16	98.0	119	44	70	18	44%	.323	3	1.67	6.28	0	6.44	10.8	3.6	5.5	1.6	-7.6	-0.2	-0.2
2011 (age 25)	4	6	0	27	12	82.7	99	37	58	16	44%	.314	0	1.65	6.28	0	6.42	10.6	3.6	5.4	1.7	-5.6	-0.2	-0.2
2012 (age 26)	5	6	0	32	13	94.0	111	39	68	15	44%	.321	3	1.60	5.85	0	6.01	10.5	3.3	5.6	1.4	-2.6	0.1	0.2
2013 (age 27)	5	6	1	33	11	90.3	104	34	67	15	44%	.313	4	1.52	5.65	0	5.83	10.2	3.0	5.7	1.4	-1.0	0.3	0.3
2014 (age 28)	3	3	0	22	7	57.3	65	22	44	9	44%	.317	6	1.51	5.26	0	5.40	10.2	3.0	5.9	1.3	1.3	0.4	0.4
2015 (age 29)	3	3	0	22	6	54.0	62	20	42	9	44%	.319	6	1.52	5.42	0	5.56	10.3	2.9	6.0	1.4	0.5	0.3	0.3

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.291	.392	.493
vs RHB	.280	.359	.453
Split	+.011	+.034	+.040
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2009	-0.5	$400,000	-13.8	1.2
2010	-0.2	$400,000	-9.0	1.8
2011	-0.2	$400,000	-6.7	1.5
2012	0.2	$400,000	-3.6	1.6
2013	0.3	$725,000	-1.8	1.4
2014	0.4	$1,125,000	0.7	2.5
2015	0.3	$1,050,000	0.0	1.7
Peak	1.4	$875,000	0.7	10.4

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	5.64	6.81	7.65	6.60
2010	5.40	6.87	8.30	6.44
2011	4.88	6.38	7.69	6.42
2012	5.02	6.09	7.63	6.01
2013	4.95	6.12	7.86	5.83
2014	4.62	5.59	6.88	5.40
2015	4.56	5.60	7.18	5.56

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	9%	0%	21%
2010	28%	6%	28%
2011	44%	20%	30%
2012	50%	28%	35%
2013	59%	37%	31%
2014	68%	48%	32%
2015	71%	58%	28%

69

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Marcos Garcia	1992	71		11	Enmanuel Ulloa	2001	54
2	Claudio Vargas	2001	69		12	Esteban Loaiza	1995	54
3	Victor Santos	1999	66		13	Turk Wendell	1990	54
4	Wascar Serrano	2000	65		14	Domingo Jean	1992	53
5	Geraldo Padua	2000	60		15	Merkin Valdez	2004	53
6	Jae_Kuk Ryu	2006	57		16	Andres Berumen	1994	53
7	Brian Reith	2001	55		17	Rick Forney	1994	52
8	Carlos Marmol	2005	55		18	Brian Sackinsky	1994	51
9	Ben Rivera	1992	55		19	Mario Brito	1989	50
10	Scott Ruffcorn	1993	55		20	Ramiro Mendoza	1995	50

Player Comments

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2008

The Phillies' Australian scouting program almost seems to be more prolific than their domestic operation. Drew Naylor has a good fastball and a decent curve, but probably is best suited to the bullpen.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	PHL	Ind	2	3	1	12	2	36.0	43	9	22	2	46%	.321	-38	1.44	4.75	0	12.03	15.0	4.1	1.5	2.6	-21.9	0.0	-2.5
2007	WPT	A-	8	6	0	14	14	93.3	78	28	97	3	45%	.310	12	1.14	3.28	-6	6.27	11.4	4.0	4.6	1.2	-6.0	0.0	0.5
2008	LWD	A	5	3	0	14	14	87.3	69	21	97	8	56%	.280	8	1.03	2.99	-1	5.59	10.2	3.4	5.2	2.0	0.1	0.0	0.9
2008	CLR	A+	3	7	0	13	13	78.0	86	31	59	8	40%	.328	-9	1.50	4.85	-1	7.77	12.5	4.6	3.6	2.2	-17.0	0.0	-1.0

Historical Stats