<< PECOTA Home Player Search     

He's probably very handsome. Drew Naylor
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 23
6' 4"
210 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2006 PHL Ind 2 3 1 12 2 36.0 43 9 22 2 46% .321 -38 1.44 4.75 0 12.03 15.0 4.1 1.5 2.6 -21.9 0.0 -2.5
2007 WPT A- 8 6 0 14 14 93.3 78 28 97 3 45% .310 12 1.14 3.28 -6 6.27 11.4 4.0 4.6 1.2 -6.0 0.0 0.5
2008 LWD A 5 3 0 14 14 87.3 69 21 97 8 56% .280 8 1.03 2.99 -1 5.59 10.2 3.4 5.2 2.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
2008 CLR A+ 3 7 0 13 13 78.0 86 31 59 8 40% .328 -9 1.50 4.85 -1 7.77 12.5 4.6 3.6 2.2 -17.0 0.0 -1.0


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/10/09 3:35 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 7 8 0 23 23 128.7 136 54 99 18 44% .300 17 1.48 5.04 -1 5.20 9.4 3.3 5.9 1.2 6.8 1.7 1.8
75o 7 8 0 22 22 123.3 137 54 91 19 44% .307 14 1.55 5.47 -1 5.64 9.9 3.5 5.7 1.4 0.3 1.0 1.1
60o 6 8 0 22 22 114.7 137 53 79 20 44% .317 8 1.66 6.20 -1 6.36 10.6 3.7 5.4 1.5 -9.2 0.0 0.0
50o 5 8 0 21 21 109.3 137 53 73 21 44% .323 5 1.73 6.64 0 6.81 11.2 3.8 5.1 1.7 -14.4 -0.6 -0.6
40o 5 8 0 21 21 105.3 136 52 68 21 44% .328 2 1.78 7.00 0 7.16 11.5 3.9 5.0 1.8 -18.2 -1.0 -1.0
25o 4 8 0 20 20 100.0 135 51 61 22 44% .334 -1 1.86 7.50 0 7.65 12.1 4.0 4.7 1.9 -22.9 -1.5 -1.5
10o 3 8 0 24 17 86.3 131 48 45 22 45% .349 -14 2.07 8.86 0 8.98 13.5 4.4 4.1 2.2 -33.0 -2.6 -2.7
Weighted Mean 6 9 0 23 23 119.3 146 56 81 22 44% .321 7 1.70 6.44 -1 6.60 10.9 3.7 5.2 1.6 -11.9 -0.4 -0.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

21%

53%

12%

9%

1.19

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2009 (age 23) 6 9 0 23 23 119.3 146 56 81 22 44% .321 7 1.70 6.44 -1 6.60 10.9 3.7 5.2 1.6 -11.9 -0.4 -0.5
2010 (age 24) 5 7 0 27 16 98.0 119 44 70 18 44% .323 3 1.67 6.28 0 6.44 10.8 3.6 5.5 1.6 -7.6 -0.2 -0.2
2011 (age 25) 4 6 0 27 12 82.7 99 37 58 16 44% .314 0 1.65 6.28 0 6.42 10.6 3.6 5.4 1.7 -5.6 -0.2 -0.2
2012 (age 26) 5 6 0 32 13 94.0 111 39 68 15 44% .321 3 1.60 5.85 0 6.01 10.5 3.3 5.6 1.4 -2.6 0.1 0.2
2013 (age 27) 5 6 1 33 11 90.3 104 34 67 15 44% .313 4 1.52 5.65 0 5.83 10.2 3.0 5.7 1.4 -1.0 0.3 0.3
2014 (age 28) 3 3 0 22 7 57.3 65 22 44 9 44% .317 6 1.51 5.26 0 5.40 10.2 3.0 5.9 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.4
2015 (age 29) 3 3 0 22 6 54.0 62 20 42 9 44% .319 6 1.52 5.42 0 5.56 10.3 2.9 6.0 1.4 0.5 0.3 0.3

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .291 .392 .493
vs RHB .280 .359 .453
Split +.011 +.034 +.040
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2009 -0.5 $400,000 -13.8 1.2
2010 -0.2 $400,000 -9.0 1.8
2011 -0.2 $400,000 -6.7 1.5
2012 0.2 $400,000 -3.6 1.6
2013 0.3 $725,000 -1.8 1.4
2014 0.4 $1,125,000 0.7 2.5
2015 0.3 $1,050,000 0.0 1.7
Peak 1.4 $875,000 0.7 10.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 5.64 6.81 7.65 6.60
2010 5.40 6.87 8.30 6.44
2011 4.88 6.38 7.69 6.42
2012 5.02 6.09 7.63 6.01
2013 4.95 6.12 7.86 5.83
2014 4.62 5.59 6.88 5.40
2015 4.56 5.60 7.18 5.56


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 9% 0% 21%
2010 28% 6% 28%
2011 44% 20% 30%
2012 50% 28% 35%
2013 59% 37% 31%
2014 68% 48% 32%
2015 71% 58% 28%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

69

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Marcos Garcia 1992 71 11 Enmanuel Ulloa 2001 54
2 Claudio Vargas 2001 69 12 Esteban Loaiza 1995 54
3 Victor Santos 1999 66 13 Turk Wendell 1990 54
4 Wascar Serrano 2000 65 14 Domingo Jean 1992 53
5 Geraldo Padua 2000 60 15 Merkin Valdez 2004 53
6 Jae_Kuk Ryu 2006 57 16 Andres Berumen 1994 53
7 Brian Reith 2001 55 17 Rick Forney 1994 52
8 Carlos Marmol 2005 55 18 Brian Sackinsky 1994 51
9 Ben Rivera 1992 55 19 Mario Brito 1989 50
10 Scott Ruffcorn 1993 55 20 Ramiro Mendoza 1995 50

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

The Phillies' Australian scouting program almost seems to be more prolific than their domestic operation. Drew Naylor has a good fastball and a decent curve, but probably is best suited to the bullpen.


Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2009 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.