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Brad Nelson
Milwaukee Brewers [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
First Base
Bats L
Age 25
6' 2"
220 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 HUN 2A 238 27 8 1 6 38 26 42 1 2 0.6 .293 .370 .428 .107 .249 .318 .380 .242 -5.7 53-LF 2 1.0
2005 NAS 3A 331 50 16 2 7 39 45 74 4 5 0.2 .253 .359 .399 -.020 .220 .316 .338 .231 -14.8 54-LF -4 0.6
2006 HUN 2A 332 47 14 1 6 39 63 62 6 3 -0.2 .264 .401 .392 .153 .251 .377 .399 .278 7.7 65-1B 4 2.5
2006 NAS 3A 152 22 10 0 3 17 18 36 4 3 -0.4 .215 .316 .362 -.125 .197 .289 .348 .223 -7.8 34-1B 1 0.3
2007 NAS 3A 445 54 23 1 20 65 31 98 9 6 1.7 .263 .317 .470 .021 .235 .289 .419 .241 -8.4 55-1B 2 1.7


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 2:38 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 511 76 27 2 18 67 62 111 12 4 0.6 .271 .363 .468 .074 .271 .360 .471 .283 18.5 120-1B 5 4.1
75o 488 65 25 2 16 60 57 110 11 4 0.5 .258 .347 .438 -.002 .258 .345 .441 .269 8.9 115-1B 4 3.2
60o 472 59 23 2 14 56 54 109 10 4 0.5 .249 .337 .418 -.052 .249 .334 .421 .260 3.0 112-1B 4 2.7
50o 458 53 21 2 13 52 51 108 9 4 0.5 .241 .328 .401 -.097 .241 .325 .404 .251 -1.9 108-1B 3 2.2
40o 449 50 20 2 12 50 49 107 9 4 0.5 .236 .322 .391 -.123 .236 .320 .394 .246 -4.6 106-1B 3 1.9
25o 424 43 18 1 10 44 44 105 8 4 0.4 .224 .307 .363 -.195 .224 .305 .365 .232 -11.5 101-1B 3 1.1
10o 397 35 16 1 8 38 39 102 7 4 0.4 .211 .291 .335 -.268 .211 .289 .337 .216 -17.6 95-1B 2 0.4
Weighted Mean 497 61 23 2 14 57 55 117 10 5 0.5 .243 .330 .405 -.087 .243 .327 .408 .253 1.8 117-1B 4 2.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

34%

62%

19%

12%

0.85

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 25) 497 61 23 2 14 57 55 117 10 5 0.5 .243 .330 .405 -.087 .243 .327 .408 .253 1.8 117-1B 4 2.4
2009 (age 26) 430 49 20 2 13 49 46 99 9 4 0.3 .239 .324 .408 -.096 .236 .316 .403 .251 -1.2 102-1B 4 1.7
2010 (age 27) 442 55 21 2 15 56 50 103 9 4 0.3 .248 .336 .431 -.039 .244 .328 .426 .262 2.7 105-1B 3 1.6
2011 (age 28) 457 56 24 2 16 55 50 105 9 4 0.2 .247 .332 .431 -.047 .243 .324 .426 .260 1.8 108-1B 4 1.3
2012 (age 29) 440 58 20 1 17 60 53 94 9 3 0.1 .255 .349 .446 .008 .251 .341 .441 .271 3.5 104-1B 1 1.1
2013 (age 30) 422 50 20 1 15 52 47 91 5 3 0.1 .250 .335 .429 -.041 .246 .327 .424 .259 1.4 100-1B 1 0.9
2014 (age 31) 403 50 19 1 14 53 50 82 8 2 0.1 .256 .348 .438 -.003 .252 .340 .433 .269 2.6 96-1B -1 0.9

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .221 .307 .369
vs RHP .250 .341 .432
Split -.028 -.034 -.063
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 1.1 1.3 2.4 $2,975,000 1.2 2.4
2009 0.8 0.9 1.7 $1,925,000 -1.6 2.7
2010 0.9 0.6 1.6 $2,150,000 1.5 3.5
2011 0.7 0.6 1.3 $1,950,000 1.5 3.4
2012 0.8 0.4 1.1 $2,025,000 2.6 4.5
2013 0.5 0.4 0.9 $1,350,000 0.6 2.2
2014 0.6 0.4 0.9 $1,775,000 1.7 3.3
Peak 8.9 $8,525,000 6.2 18.7


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .269 .251 .232 .253
2009 .273 .248 .230 .251
2010 .286 .257 .238 .262
2011 .280 .257 .231 .260
2012 .293 .258 .225 .271
2013 .287 .266 .225 .259
2014 .295 .256 .247 .269


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 12% 0% 34%
2009 29% 15% 24%
2010 46% 34% 28%
2011 59% 44% 24%
2012 71% 55% 24%
2013 74% 58% 21%
2014 74% 64% 17%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Brad Nelson began the year at Triple-A Nashville, flopped, and ended the year in his fourth go-round at Double-A; he managed just a .382 SLG.

2005

After a solid 2002 at Beloit, Nelson appeared to be one of the better power hitting prospects in the game, but his progress has stagnated the past two seasons after a hamate injury. His pitch recognition is not where it needs to be, and he won't hit for enough of an average to be a star without walking. If we're being kind, we can call his defense a work-in-progress, but we'll just say its pretty lousy if pressed. There's still some potential here, but it's untapped at the moment, and he's closer to being next in the long line of what-could-have-been than he is to Miller Park.


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