Scott Nestor

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Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	JUP	A+	2	2	10	33	0	39.2	19	26	48	0	40%	.221	-16	1.15	2.53	5	6.38	5.9	7.4	5.9	0.5	-3.2	0.0	0.2
2006	CAR	AA	2	2	0	12	0	13.1	18	13	13	1	42%	.386	-26	2.37	7.56	-4	10.66	14.9	9.2	5.0	1.4	-7.1	0.0	-1.1
2007	CAR	AA	2	4	1	58	0	75.0	65	41	86	5	45%	.319	-5	1.41	4.44	1	6.81	10.2	5.3	6.4	1.2	-9.4	0.0	-0.1
2008	ABQ	AAA	1	1	0	55	0	61.7	54	49	64	9	40%	.285	-25	1.67	7.44	8	8.36	7.9	6.9	6.2	1.5	-18.8	0.0	-0.8

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/10/09 3:36 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	4	3	1	27	6	63.0	54	42	59	5	40%	.283	11	1.53	4.40	0	4.56	7.6	5.3	7.2	0.7	7.9	1.0	1.4
75^o	3	3	0	25	6	56.7	56	43	51	7	40%	.302	4	1.73	5.61	0	5.78	8.8	5.9	7.0	1.1	-0.8	0.1	0.4
60^o	3	3	0	25	6	53.3	56	42	48	8	40%	.311	1	1.84	6.26	0	6.42	9.4	6.3	6.9	1.3	-4.7	-0.2	0.0
50^o	2	3	0	24	6	51.0	56	42	45	9	40%	.317	-2	1.92	6.78	0	6.93	9.8	6.5	6.8	1.5	-7.5	-0.5	-0.3
40^o	2	3	0	23	6	49.3	56	42	43	9	40%	.323	-5	1.99	7.18	0	7.33	10.2	6.7	6.7	1.6	-9.5	-0.7	-0.5
25^o	2	3	0	22	5	46.3	56	41	40	10	40%	.330	-8	2.09	7.87	0	8.01	10.7	7.0	6.6	1.8	-12.6	-1.0	-0.9
10^o	1	3	0	20	5	41.0	53	39	34	10	41%	.341	-14	2.23	9.22	0	9.41	11.6	7.5	6.5	2.1	-17.9	-1.5	-1.4
Weighted Mean	2	3	0	23	6	50.3	54	41	45	8	40%	.314	-1	1.88	6.48	0	6.64	9.6	6.4	6.9	1.4	-5.7	-0.3	-0.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
24%	56%	15%	8%	1.02

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2009 (age 24)	2	3	0	23	6	50.3	54	41	45	8	40%	.314	-1	1.88	6.48	0	6.64	9.6	6.4	6.9	1.4	-5.7	-0.3	-0.3
2010 (age 25)	2	3	0	22	5	47.7	49	36	44	6	40%	.309	2	1.76	5.85	0	6.02	9.1	5.9	7.1	1.2	-1.6	0.0	0.1
2011 (age 26)	2	3	0	21	5	45.3	49	34	39	7	38%	.312	-2	1.82	6.26	0	6.39	9.7	5.8	6.7	1.4	-2.5	-0.2	-0.1
2012 (age 27)	2	3	0	23	5	48.7	53	35	43	7	40%	.319	1	1.80	5.97	0	6.11	9.7	5.7	6.8	1.2	-1.2	-0.1	0.0
2013 (age 28)	2	3	0	21	4	45.3	44	27	42	7	39%	.296	7	1.56	5.23	0	5.39	8.7	4.6	7.2	1.3	0.5	0.3	0.2
2014 (age 29)	2	2	0	19	3	37.7	40	26	35	5	40%	.320	4	1.74	5.62	0	5.77	9.4	5.5	7.2	1.1	-0.2	0.1	0.1
2015 (age 30)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.253	.407	.430
vs RHB	.241	.365	.393
Split	+.011	+.043	+.037
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2009	-0.3	$400,000	-6.6	0.6
2010	0.1	$400,000	-2.2	1.6
2011	0.0	$400,000	-3.0	0.7
2012	0.0	$450,000	-1.6	0.6
2013	0.2	$725,000	0.3	0.7
2014	0.1	$675,000	-0.4	0.2
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak	0.5	$325,000	0.9	4.4

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	5.78	6.93	8.01	6.64
2010	5.16	6.31	7.67	6.02
2011	5.40	6.70	8.15	6.39
2012	4.89	6.68	8.13	6.11
2013	4.73	5.82	7.49	5.39
2014	4.69	6.10	7.56	5.77
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	8%	0%	24%
2010	31%	19%	27%
2011	49%	34%	23%
2012	65%	50%	24%
2013	74%	59%	21%
2014	77%	65%	18%
2015	80%	77%	18%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

58

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Joe Valentine	2004	55		11	John Semprini	1984	43
2	Jason Bergmann	2006	55		12	Derek Aucoin	1995	42
3	Cory Doyne	2006	53		13	Dave Shipanoff	1984	42
4	Zach Schreiber	2007	49		14	Craig Dingman	1999	41
5	Joe Borowski	1996	46		15	Joe Boever	1985	41
6	Joel Johnston	1992	46		16	Brent Stentz	2000	41
7	Mike Grzanich	1997	45		17	Jermaine Van_Buren	2005	40
8	Allan Simpson	2002	45		18	Lariel Gonzalez	2001	39
9	Grant Balfour	2002	44		19	Gabe Molina	2000	39
10	Allen Plaster	1995	43		20	Karl Best	1984	39

Player Comments

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2008

Scott Nestor is a big reliever with a big fastball, who recorded some big strikeout totals at Double-A but also a big walk rate. Sometimes, you don't want everything to be big.

2007

Scott Nestor is on a dedicated quest to let all batters reach base when he pitches.