Jeff Niemann

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Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time
Rays Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)

Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP

Spot Jeff Niemann 75 13 5.13 1.54 79 35 9 56 3 5 0 2.4

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 1:08 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	8	5	0	21	21	123.0	111	47	103	12	45%	.280	21	1.28	3.39	3.66	3.53	7.9	3.1	6.7	0.9	30.7	4.0	4.0
75^o	7	6	0	20	20	112.0	111	49	89	13	45%	.294	13	1.42	4.35	4.46	4.49	8.7	3.6	6.4	1.0	14.7	2.3	2.4
60^o	6	7	0	19	19	106.7	111	49	82	13	45%	.301	10	1.50	4.84	4.86	4.98	9.1	3.8	6.2	1.1	7.5	1.6	1.7
50^o	5	7	0	19	19	103.0	110	49	78	14	44%	.305	7	1.55	5.19	5.15	5.32	9.4	3.9	6.1	1.2	2.9	1.1	1.3
40^o	5	7	0	24	17	98.7	110	50	73	14	44%	.311	0	1.61	5.63	5.52	5.76	9.8	4.1	5.9	1.3	-2.5	0.4	0.7
25^o	4	7	0	24	16	91.0	108	49	65	14	44%	.320	-6	1.72	6.39	6.16	6.51	10.4	4.4	5.7	1.4	-10.8	-0.4	-0.2
10^o	2	7	0	22	13	74.0	101	47	47	15	43%	.342	-20	1.99	8.27	7.72	8.35	12.0	5.2	5.1	1.8	-25.6	-2.0	-1.8
Weighted Mean	6	8	0	26	18	111.0	118	53	84	15	44%	.304	4	1.54	5.13	5.09	5.26	9.3	3.9	6.1	1.2	3.6	1.1	1.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
30%	61%	17%	21%	1.24

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 25)	6	8	0	26	18	111.0	118	53	84	15	44%	.304	4	1.54	5.13	5.09	5.26	9.3	3.9	6.1	1.2	3.6	1.1	1.4
2009 (age 26)	6	7	0	26	18	112.3	119	48	89	15	42%	.305	6	1.48	4.75	4.81	4.87	9.3	3.5	6.4	1.2	7.0	1.7	1.6
2010 (age 27)	5	6	0	30	14	98.3	107	43	69	13	39%	.302	-2	1.52	4.99	5.06	5.08	9.5	3.6	5.7	1.2	5.1	1.1	1.4
2011 (age 28)	6	7	1	32	15	107.0	109	43	85	13	43%	.300	5	1.42	4.60	4.55	4.74	9.0	3.3	6.4	1.1	7.7	1.6	1.6
2012 (age 29)	3	4	1	21	8	60.7	64	24	47	8	42%	.300	2	1.43	4.62	4.72	4.73	9.2	3.2	6.3	1.2	5.4	0.9	1.1
2013 (age 30)	3	4	0	24	9	68.0	77	28	50	9	43%	.316	-1	1.53	5.02	5.26	5.10	9.9	3.3	6.0	1.2	3.1	0.7	0.9
2014 (age 31)	2	2	0	11	4	31.0	33	12	23	4	45%	.298	1	1.41	4.65	4.60	4.80	9.2	3.0	5.9	1.2	4.9	0.4	1.0

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.277	.374	.456
vs RHB	.260	.344	.405
Split	+.017	+.030	+.050
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	1.4	$2,075,000	3.6	7.6
2009	1.6	$2,950,000	7.0	9.7
2010	1.4	$2,600,000	5.1	8.5
2011	1.6	$3,450,000	7.6	9.4
2012	1.1	$2,500,000	5.3	6.3
2013	0.9	$1,875,000	3.1	2.7
2014	1.0	$2,625,000	4.9	3.9
Peak	8.0	$10,925,000	28.7	44.3

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	4.49	5.32	6.51	5.26
2009	4.09	4.69	5.90	4.87
2010	4.58	5.24	6.57	5.08
2011	3.90	5.32	6.80	4.74
2012	4.16	5.22	7.07	4.73
2013	4.64	5.20	6.64	5.10
2014	4.01	5.11	7.75	4.80

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	21%	0%	30%
2009	34%	21%	44%
2010	36%	15%	30%
2011	44%	20%	29%
2012	60%	28%	27%
2013	53%	39%	21%
2014	66%	48%	19%

26

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	John Patterson	2003	48		11	Aaron Heilman	2004	25
2	Jeff Juden	1996	45		12	Josh Karp	2005	25
3	Todd Van_Poppel	1997	36		13	Don Robinson	1982	24
4	Mark Redman	1999	33		14	Jaret Wright	2001	24
5	Alan Benes	1997	33		15	Brett Myers	2005	23
6	Scott Elarton	2001	33		16	Jason Grilli	2002	23
7	Roger Salkeld	1996	31		17	C.C. Sabathia	2005	22
8	Chris Carpenter	2000	28		18	Rick Helling	1996	22
9	Kyle Snyder	2003	27		19	Greg Gohr	1993	22
10	Chris Young	2004	26		20	Dewon Brazelton	2005	22

Player Comments

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2007

It`s risky enough having one of Rice`s mistletoe-pierced Balders in your system, but the D-Rays have two. Niemann is further along on the development curve than Wade Townsend, though both have missed considerable time due to injuries to the part of their body with which they hope to make their livings. Niemann didn`t make his first appearance last year until June, having had to recover from minor shoulder surgery first, but, to his credit, he was quite good after that. That he has a less-than-graceful command of his large body doesn`t help the injury concerns.

Pos	Name	IP	GS	ERA	WHIP	H	BB	HR	SO	W	L	SV	VORP
Spot	Jeff Niemann	75	13	5.13	1.54	79	35	9	56	3	5	0	2.4

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	VIS	1C	0	1	0	5	5	20.3	12	10	28	3	39%	.220	1	1.08	3.99	4.75	5.21	5.7	6.2	7.6	1.9	0.8		0.3
2005	MNT	2A	0	1	0	6	3	10.3	7	5	14	0	46%	.292	12	1.17	4.37	3.76	7.71	7.7	4.8	8.7	0.0	-2.2		-0.1
2006	MNT	2A	5	5	0	14	14	77.2	56	29	84	6	46%	.255	11	1.10	2.68	4.89	4.25	8.4	3.9	6.8	1.4	10.8		2.4
2007	DUR	3A	12	6	0	25	25	131.0	144	46	123	13	43%	.342	3	1.45	3.98	6.99	6.27	11.6	3.7	6.3	1.3	-9.1		0.9

Projected Playing Time

Historical Stats