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He's probably very handsome. Tyler Norrick
St. Louis Cardinals [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws L
Age 24
6' 3"
190 lbs.
Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2006 SCO 1A 1 0 0 1 0 4.1 4 0 9 0 .571 32 0.98 2.20 11.88 9.00 21.0 3.0 12.0 0.0 -1.1 -0.2
2006 QUD 1B 2 2 1 13 12 65.0 60 35 60 3 49% .326 -29 1.46 3.74 9.09 7.66 12.2 9.1 4.9 1.6 -11.8 -0.5
2007 PMB 1C 11 9 0 28 28 165.3 134 73 134 11 41% .267 -8 1.25 3.59 5.74 5.57 9.1 5.8 4.7 1.3 0.5 2.1


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/17/08 1:12 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 8 9 0 25 25 144.3 144 79 93 17 43% .282 4 1.55 4.25 5.30 4.68 8.7 4.6 5.4 1.0 19.0 3.0 3.2
75o 7 9 0 25 25 138.0 143 80 87 18 43% .288 1 1.61 4.71 5.67 5.18 9.1 4.8 5.3 1.1 10.3 2.1 2.3
60o 6 10 0 33 21 125.7 140 80 77 18 43% .300 -10 1.74 5.65 6.44 6.19 9.7 5.2 5.2 1.2 -5.4 0.3 0.7
50o 5 10 0 33 20 120.0 138 79 72 18 43% .305 -13 1.81 6.12 6.83 6.70 10.0 5.5 5.1 1.3 -12.1 -0.4 0.0
40o 4 10 0 33 19 115.0 136 79 68 18 43% .310 -16 1.86 6.53 7.16 7.13 10.3 5.7 5.0 1.4 -17.4 -0.9 -0.6
25o 3 9 0 32 17 100.7 129 76 57 18 43% .324 -25 2.03 7.75 8.17 8.45 11.2 6.3 4.8 1.5 -30.6 -2.3 -2.0
10o 2 8 0 30 14 80.0 114 69 42 17 43% .344 -37 2.29 9.69 9.69 10.56 12.5 7.2 4.4 1.8 -43.7 -3.7 -3.4
Weighted Mean 5 10 0 35 20 125.0 142 81 76 18 43% .303 -12 1.78 5.94 6.65 6.50 9.9 5.4 5.1 1.3 -9.2 -0.1 0.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

12%

37%

36%

17%

1.45

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 24) 5 10 0 35 20 125.0 142 81 76 18 43% .303 -12 1.78 5.94 6.65 6.50 9.9 5.4 5.1 1.3 -9.2 -0.1 0.0
2009 (age 25) 4 8 0 43 14 107.0 121 63 64 17 42% .299 -16 1.72 5.80 6.51 6.34 9.9 4.9 5.1 1.4 -5.0 -0.1 0.2
2010 (age 26) 3 6 0 38 9 81.0 98 49 45 14 41% .308 -22 1.81 6.37 7.12 6.93 10.6 5.0 4.7 1.5 -7.7 -0.6 -0.3
2011 (age 27) 3 6 0 38 9 79.3 93 50 48 10 42% .316 -17 1.80 6.01 6.69 6.59 10.2 5.2 5.1 1.1 -4.5 -0.3 0.0
2012 (age 28) 3 5 0 36 8 75.7 90 40 46 11 41% .314 -15 1.72 5.89 6.54 6.44 10.3 4.4 5.1 1.3 -2.1 -0.2 0.0
2013 (age 29) 3 5 0 35 6 67.0 80 37 40 11 42% .308 -18 1.73 5.97 6.69 6.50 10.4 4.5 5.0 1.4 -2.2 -0.3 0.0
2014 (age 30)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .251 .370 .388
vs RHB .268 .387 .448
Split -.017 -.017 -.060
LgAvg -.020 -.021 -.054

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 0.0 $400,000 -13.3 2.1
2009 0.2 $425,000 -7.8 1.2
2010 -0.3 $400,000 -10.0 0.5
2011 0.0 $400,000 -6.3 1.0
2012 0.0 $400,000 -3.1 0.8
2013 0.0 $400,000 -3.2 0.4
2014 0.1 $400,000 -1.5 0.4
Peak 0.3 $75,000 0.0 6.0


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 5.18 6.70 8.45 6.50
2009 5.23 6.29 7.71 6.34
2010 5.58 6.82 8.65 6.93
2011 5.82 6.63 7.96 6.59
2012 5.37 6.51 10.02 6.44
2013 5.40 6.20 8.94 6.50
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 17% 0% 12%
2009 35% 20% 11%
2010 50% 31% 9%
2011 64% 43% 9%
2012 78% 62% 7%
2013 77% 65% 6%
2014 85% 68% 6%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

66

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Terry Burrows 1993 67 11 Zach Dixon 2005 54
2 Mike Bertotti 1994 67 12 Les Walrond 2001 52
3 Lindsay Gulin 2001 66 13 Derek Root 2000 52
4 Kirt Ojala 1993 63 14 ROB BLUMBERG 1992 52
5 Chuck Crowder 2001 61 15 Vaughn Eshelman 1994 52
6 Shane Dennis 1996 60 16 Paul Darnell 2001 51
7 Jeff Wilson 2001 57 17 Brian Burres 2006 51
8 Jeff Alkire 1994 56 18 Rich Robertson 1993 50
9 Brian Passini 1999 56 19 Scott Eyre 1997 49
10 Matt Beech 1996 55 20 Todd Belitz 2000 49

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