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He's probably very handsome. Francisco Pena
New York Mets [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 18
6' 2"
230 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2007 SAV 1B 399 26 12 0 5 30 24 76 1 1 -7.3 .210 .263 .283 -.288 .171 .213 .227 .133 -52.3 81-C -13 -2.1


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/18/08 3:12 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 504 33 24 1 6 43 26 89 2 2 -1.9 .229 .272 .319 -.315 .233 .275 .332 .204 -13.6 119-C -7 1.0
75o 468 23 17 1 4 36 22 90 2 2 -1.6 .202 .242 .273 -.446 .205 .245 .284 .170 -27.3 111-C -7 -0.3
60o 456 21 15 0 4 33 20 91 2 2 -1.5 .194 .233 .259 -.486 .196 .236 .269 .158 -31.0 108-C -6 -0.7
50o 431 17 12 0 3 29 18 90 2 1 -1.3 .180 .218 .235 -.553 .182 .220 .245 .134 -36.3 102-C -6 -1.2
40o 404 13 9 0 3 24 16 89 2 1 -1.2 .167 .204 .215 -.611 .170 .207 .223 .109 -39.6 96-C -5 -1.6
25o 383 11 8 0 2 21 15 88 2 1 -1.1 .160 .196 .203 -.645 .162 .199 .211 .088 -40.7 92-C -5 -1.8
10o 305 7 5 0 2 11 11 81 1 1 -0.8 .148 .183 .182 -.704 .150 .185 .189 .013 -36.7 74-C -3 -1.7
Weighted Mean 451 19 13 0 4 32 19 93 2 2 -1.4 .184 .223 .242 -.532 .187 .225 .252 .142 -31.4 107-C -5 -0.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

52%

56%

40%

13%

1.33

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 18) 451 19 13 0 4 32 19 93 2 2 -1.4 .184 .223 .242 -.532 .187 .225 .252 .142 -31.4 107-C -5 -0.4
2009 (age 19) 484 27 17 1 6 38 24 93 3 2 -1.5 .202 .246 .283 -.425 .202 .245 .289 .177 -23.8 114-C -2 0.4
2010 (age 20) 532 35 21 1 8 46 28 102 2 2 -1.5 .214 .260 .309 -.358 .214 .259 .316 .195 -15.3 125-C -5 0.8
2011 (age 21) 514 38 22 1 9 51 29 91 2 2 -1.5 .230 .279 .338 -.274 .230 .278 .346 .215 -6.6 121-C -5 1.4
2012 (age 22) 515 44 25 1 10 50 33 84 3 2 -1.4 .245 .298 .365 -.195 .244 .297 .373 .232 0.6 121-C -7 1.8
2013 (age 23) 522 46 22 1 12 58 34 80 2 1 -1.3 .246 .298 .374 -.183 .246 .296 .382 .234 1.5 123-C -12 1.5
2014 (age 24) 511 44 22 1 12 58 34 82 2 2 -1.1 .246 .296 .376 -.184 .245 .294 .384 .234 1.2 120-C -6 1.6

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .201 .241 .272
vs RHP .180 .217 .234
Split +.020 +.024 +.038
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 -2.6 2.2 -0.4 $400,000 -38.1 0.0
2009 -1.8 2.2 0.4 $575,000 -29.5 0.0
2010 -1.1 1.9 0.8 $1,000,000 -21.2 1.1
2011 -0.4 1.7 1.4 $1,725,000 -13.4 1.2
2012 0.2 1.6 1.8 $2,550,000 -5.6 4.5
2013 0.2 1.3 1.5 $2,225,000 -4.9 1.3
2014 0.2 1.4 1.6 $2,575,000 -2.6 2.0
Peak 8.3 $6,600,000 -5.7 11.2


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .170 .134 .088 .142
2009 .215 .176 .142 .177
2010 .227 .204 .159 .195
2011 .250 .222 .175 .215
2012 .268 .223 .200 .232
2013 .263 .234 .210 .234
2014 .256 .242 .214 .234


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 13% 0% 52%
2009 10% 6% 71%
2010 21% 14% 79%
2011 26% 20% 80%
2012 33% 28% 84%
2013 44% 33% 87%
2014 54% 41% 82%

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