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He's probably very handsome. Zachary Phillips
Texas Rangers [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws L
Age 21
6' 1"
178 lbs.
Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2005 CLN 1B 0 0 0 2 0 4.0 7 0 4 0 67% .500 -15 1.75 6.75 12.35 10.80 21.6 2.7 5.4 0.0 -1.9 -0.1
2006 CLN 1B 5 12 0 28 28 142.0 178 66 126 5 54% .399 -31 1.72 5.96 10.35 11.08 14.7 7.8 4.3 1.2 -71.2 -5.6
2007 CLN 1B 11 7 0 27 27 151.7 139 43 157 6 55% .333 -7 1.20 2.91 7.22 6.66 12.0 5.5 5.2 1.2 -14.6 0.8


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/17/08 2:02 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 7 9 0 25 25 139.3 158 79 94 14 53% .321 5 1.70 4.95 5.19 4.79 9.7 4.7 5.5 0.9 10.9 2.2 2.5
75o 6 10 0 24 24 129.0 157 81 84 15 53% .333 -1 1.84 5.86 5.93 5.66 10.4 5.2 5.3 1.0 -3.9 0.6 1.0
60o 5 10 0 24 24 120.7 156 81 75 16 53% .344 -7 1.97 6.65 6.57 6.42 11.1 5.6 5.1 1.2 -14.9 -0.5 -0.1
50o 4 10 0 23 23 115.0 155 82 70 17 53% .350 -10 2.06 7.20 7.02 6.95 11.5 5.8 5.0 1.3 -21.7 -1.3 -0.8
40o 4 10 0 30 21 110.3 154 82 66 17 53% .356 -17 2.13 7.66 7.40 7.39 11.9 6.1 4.9 1.4 -26.8 -1.9 -1.4
25o 3 10 0 30 19 100.7 150 81 57 18 53% .368 -24 2.29 8.69 8.24 8.37 12.7 6.6 4.6 1.5 -36.6 -2.9 -2.4
10o 2 9 0 29 17 83.3 139 77 43 18 53% .387 -37 2.58 10.69 9.71 10.30 14.3 7.6 4.2 1.9 -50.4 -4.3 -3.9
Weighted Mean 5 10 0 31 21 118.3 156 82 73 16 53% .347 -12 2.01 6.93 6.77 6.69 11.3 5.7 5.0 1.2 -17.6 -1.0 -0.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

34%

65%

14%

12%

1.46

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 21) 5 10 0 31 21 118.3 156 82 73 16 53% .347 -12 2.01 6.93 6.77 6.69 11.3 5.7 5.0 1.2 -17.6 -1.0 -0.2
2009 (age 22) 4 9 0 35 18 110.0 146 74 69 15 53% .350 -15 2.00 7.00 6.74 6.78 11.4 5.5 5.1 1.2 -14.8 -1.1 -0.3
2010 (age 23) 4 8 0 40 15 103.0 138 73 59 14 49% .347 -20 2.05 7.12 6.89 6.86 11.5 5.8 4.7 1.2 -13.5 -1.2 -0.3
2011 (age 24) 4 8 0 38 13 96.7 127 56 61 10 53% .353 -11 1.89 6.60 6.17 6.43 11.2 4.8 5.2 0.9 -7.9 -0.6 0.1
2012 (age 25) 4 7 0 40 12 94.7 122 52 62 13 53% .344 -11 1.83 6.40 6.14 6.19 11.0 4.5 5.3 1.2 -5.3 -0.4 0.2
2013 (age 26) 2 4 0 31 6 59.3 75 32 38 6 53% .346 -10 1.80 6.03 5.74 5.88 10.9 4.4 5.3 0.9 -2.2 -0.1 0.3
2014 (age 27) 2 4 0 28 5 51.7 71 28 34 6 53% .362 -12 1.90 6.79 6.42 6.57 11.7 4.4 5.4 1.1 -4.7 -0.5 0.0

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .299 .407 .434
vs RHB .304 .416 .464
Split -.004 -.009 -.030
LgAvg -.020 -.021 -.054

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 -0.2 $400,000 -15.4 1.9
2009 -0.3 $400,000 -13.0 1.6
2010 -0.3 $400,000 -11.9 2.1
2011 0.1 $400,000 -6.7 2.7
2012 0.2 $475,000 -4.2 1.9
2013 0.3 $525,000 -1.5 1.3
2014 0.0 $400,000 -4.0 0.9
Peak 0.5 $150,000 0.0 11.5


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 5.66 6.95 8.37 6.69
2009 5.52 7.07 8.63 6.78
2010 5.66 7.01 9.19 6.86
2011 5.38 6.65 8.88 6.43
2012 5.14 6.24 8.19 6.19
2013 4.56 5.78 7.18 5.88
2014 4.88 7.35 8.56 6.57


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 12% 0% 34%
2009 29% 12% 34%
2010 41% 20% 28%
2011 50% 33% 34%
2012 59% 44% 30%
2013 72% 51% 35%
2014 83% 56% 26%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

56

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 David Pauley 2005 45 11 Scott Moten 1994 40
2 Jung Bong 2002 45 12 Carmen Pignatiello 2004 40
3 Michael Hinckley 2004 42 13 Ethan McEntire 1997 40
4 Rachaad Stewart 1996 42 14 Mike Kusiewicz 1998 40
5 Aaron Fultz 1995 42 15 Joe Nation 2000 39
6 Kyle Kessel 1998 41 16 Cam Cairncross 1994 39
7 David Moraga 1997 41 17 Fernando Rodriguez_Jr 2006 38
8 Clint Lawrence 1998 41 18 Jeriome Robertson 1999 38
9 Tony Mounce 1996 41 19 JASON DOSS 1992 38
10 Derrick Van_Dusen 2003 40 20 A.J. Murray 2003 37

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