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He's probably very handsome. Omar Poveda
Texas Rangers [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 20
6' 4"
200 lbs.
Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2006 CLN 1B 4 13 0 26 26 149.1 167 37 133 12 43% .354 -20 1.37 4.89 8.99 9.09 12.9 4.6 4.2 2.2 -50.3 -2.8
2006 FRI 2A 0 1 0 1 1 5.2 4 5 1 0 41% .235 -38 1.73 1.73 4.78 3.86 7.7 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.2
2007 CLN 1B 11 4 0 21 21 125.7 94 32 120 10 44% .262 -11 1.00 2.79 6.54 6.24 9.7 5.0 4.6 2.1 -7.5 1.2
2007 BAK 1C 1 2 0 5 5 28.0 27 13 33 4 38% .324 -5 1.43 5.14 7.24 7.36 10.2 6.0 6.7 2.1 -5.0 -0.1


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/17/08 2:10 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 8 8 0 25 25 140.0 144 68 92 22 42% .280 6 1.51 4.59 4.89 4.34 8.8 4.0 5.3 1.4 18.7 2.9 3.3
75o 7 9 0 24 24 134.3 145 72 87 23 42% .289 2 1.61 5.25 5.41 4.96 9.2 4.4 5.3 1.5 7.6 1.8 2.2
60o 6 10 0 24 24 127.7 146 76 82 24 42% .299 -3 1.73 6.04 6.03 5.70 9.8 4.9 5.2 1.6 -4.5 0.5 1.0
50o 5 10 0 24 24 124.7 146 78 80 24 42% .304 -6 1.79 6.43 6.34 6.08 10.0 5.1 5.2 1.7 -10.1 0.0 0.4
40o 5 10 0 24 24 121.7 146 80 77 24 42% .309 -8 1.85 6.83 6.65 6.45 10.3 5.4 5.1 1.8 -15.4 -0.6 -0.1
25o 4 11 0 24 24 114.3 146 83 71 25 42% .321 -14 2.01 7.84 7.43 7.41 11.0 6.0 5.1 2.0 -28.0 -1.9 -1.5
10o 3 10 0 28 21 102.3 142 85 63 26 43% .337 -27 2.22 9.84 8.53 9.36 11.9 6.8 5.0 2.2 -49.8 -4.2 -3.7
Weighted Mean 6 11 0 26 26 136.3 160 86 87 26 42% .305 -6 1.80 6.54 6.39 6.19 10.1 5.2 5.2 1.7 -11.5 -0.2 0.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

34%

71%

11%

12%

1.50

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 20) 6 11 0 26 26 136.3 160 86 87 26 42% .305 -6 1.80 6.54 6.39 6.19 10.1 5.2 5.2 1.7 -11.5 -0.2 0.5
2009 (age 21) 7 10 0 35 22 137.3 149 71 92 25 42% .290 -4 1.60 5.67 5.48 5.38 9.3 4.3 5.5 1.6 0.6 1.0 1.5
2010 (age 22) 6 10 0 35 21 130.3 143 72 88 23 40% .294 -6 1.65 5.87 5.68 5.56 9.4 4.6 5.5 1.6 -1.7 0.6 1.1
2011 (age 23) 5 9 0 34 17 113.7 130 60 78 19 42% .308 -6 1.67 6.03 5.72 5.73 9.8 4.3 5.5 1.4 -3.8 0.3 0.9
2012 (age 24) 5 8 1 35 15 105.0 122 46 73 19 41% .309 -4 1.60 5.84 5.60 5.53 10.0 3.6 5.6 1.6 -1.0 0.4 0.9
2013 (age 25) 4 5 0 28 10 76.7 87 32 53 13 41% .302 -5 1.55 5.65 5.37 5.35 9.7 3.5 5.6 1.5 0.6 0.4 1.0
2014 (age 26) 3 4 0 23 8 62.7 72 27 40 10 42% .304 -6 1.57 5.68 5.32 5.42 9.8 3.6 5.2 1.4 0.0 0.3 0.9

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .276 .395 .481
vs RHB .287 .389 .475
Split -.010 +.006 +.006
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 0.5 $600,000 -9.2 3.1
2009 1.5 $2,125,000 2.5 7.5
2010 1.1 $1,325,000 0.0 8.2
2011 0.9 $1,075,000 -2.1 6.3
2012 0.9 $1,200,000 0.3 4.3
2013 1.0 $1,750,000 1.8 4.3
2014 0.9 $1,625,000 1.2 2.7
Peak 6.3 $5,250,000 4.6 33.6


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 4.96 6.08 7.41 6.19
2009 4.44 5.27 6.67 5.38
2010 4.64 5.87 7.21 5.56
2011 4.55 5.97 7.31 5.73
2012 4.37 5.18 7.19 5.53
2013 4.56 5.63 7.16 5.35
2014 4.66 5.79 7.17 5.42


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 12% 0% 34%
2009 21% 6% 57%
2010 31% 17% 43%
2011 38% 17% 35%
2012 52% 22% 44%
2013 52% 27% 39%
2014 58% 34% 39%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

59

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Tony Armas 1999 61 11 Kris Honel 2003 51
2 Amaury Telemaco 1994 61 12 William Martinez 1998 51
3 Calvin Maduro 1995 59 13 Orber Moreno 1998 49
4 Beltran Perez 2002 58 14 Robinson Tejeda 2002 46
5 Eric Hurley 2006 55 15 Kurt Miller 1993 46
6 Kelvim Escobar 1997 53 16 Gil Meche 1999 45
7 Ervin Santana 2003 53 17 Arnold Gooch 1997 45
8 Brett Hinchliffe 1995 52 18 Jae_Kuk Ryu 2004 44
9 Ugueth Urbina 1994 51 19 Oliver Perez 2002 44
10 Carlos Carrasco 2007 51 20 Wilfredo Rodriguez 1999 44

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