Landon Powell

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 3:34 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	271	33	13	1	9	35	29	58	2	1	-0.8	.254	.337	.438	.001	.258	.342	.467	.281	13.0	67-C 4	3.2
75^o	261	29	12	1	8	32	27	56	2	1	-0.7	.245	.325	.415	-.052	.249	.331	.443	.271	9.0	64-C 4	2.8
60^o	253	27	11	1	8	30	25	55	2	1	-0.7	.239	.318	.400	-.089	.243	.323	.427	.263	6.4	63-C 4	2.5
50^o	246	24	10	1	7	28	24	54	1	1	-0.6	.233	.310	.385	-.125	.237	.316	.411	.256	4.0	61-C 3	2.2
40^o	236	22	9	1	6	26	22	53	1	1	-0.6	.226	.301	.366	-.171	.229	.306	.391	.246	1.1	59-C 3	1.9
25^o	221	18	8	1	5	23	19	51	1	1	-0.5	.215	.286	.339	-.238	.218	.291	.361	.231	-2.7	55-C 3	1.5
10^o	198	13	6	1	3	18	16	47	1	1	-0.5	.200	.267	.302	-.327	.203	.272	.322	.209	-6.8	50-C 2	0.9
Weighted Mean	257	26	11	1	7	30	25	57	1	1	-0.6	.233	.309	.383	-.130	.236	.315	.409	.254	3.2	63-C 4	2.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
21%	55%	26%	24%	0.91

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 26)	257	26	11	1	7	30	25	57	1	1	-0.6	.233	.309	.383	-.130	.236	.315	.409	.254	3.2	63-C 4	2.6
2009 (age 27)	248	24	10	1	6	27	24	54	2	1	-0.6	.235	.311	.379	-.132	.242	.321	.411	.254	3.1	61-C 2	2.0
2010 (age 28)	243	23	10	1	7	28	23	53	1	1	-0.5	.228	.304	.376	-.151	.235	.314	.409	.250	1.8	60-C 3	1.7
2011 (age 29)	217	21	9	1	7	26	20	46	1	1	-0.4	.236	.308	.395	-.115	.244	.318	.429	.257	2.9	54-C 2	1.5
2012 (age 30)	196	19	8	1	6	24	20	40	1	0	-0.4	.249	.328	.407	-.056	.257	.339	.442	.270	4.4	50-C 3	1.5
2013 (age 31)	219	21	10	1	6	27	21	41	1	0	-0.3	.237	.313	.388	-.115	.244	.323	.422	.257	2.1	55-C 0	1.0
2014 (age 32)	170	15	7	1	5	20	17	31	1	0	-0.3	.232	.311	.386	-.124	.239	.321	.420	.256	1.6	44-C 1	1.0

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.231	.305	.380
vs RHP	.233	.311	.385
Split	-.002	-.006	-.005
LgAvg	+.004	-.004	+.007

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	0.6	2.0	2.6	$4,300,000	7.4	7.7
2009	0.5	1.4	2.0	$3,300,000	5.7	8.1
2010	0.4	1.3	1.7	$2,850,000	4.5	8.2
2011	0.4	1.0	1.5	$2,800,000	4.8	7.2
2012	0.5	1.0	1.5	$3,525,000	6.9	11.4
2013	0.3	0.6	1.0	$1,850,000	2.2	4.8
2014	0.3	0.7	1.0	$1,975,000	2.1	3.8
Peak			10.3	$13,800,000	31.5	47.4

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.271	.256	.231	.254
2009	.271	.249	.232	.254
2010	.271	.245	.212	.250
2011	.263	.245	.223	.257
2012	.282	.260	.224	.270
2013	.270	.240	.216	.257
2014	.283	.243	.194	.256

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	24%	0%	21%
2009	33%	10%	24%
2010	43%	23%	22%
2011	58%	27%	15%
2012	59%	37%	23%
2013	68%	49%	15%
2014	76%	53%	18%

39

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Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Scott Hatteberg	1992	40		11	Larry Broadway	2003	33
2	Jeff Bailey	1979	36		12	Chris Haas	1971	33
3	Rob Bowen	1981	36		13	Micah Franklin	1982	33
4	Kevin Brown	1970	36		14	Chris Snyder	1960	33
5	Jeremy Brown	1973	35		15	Ryan Christianson	2007	32
6	Bill Haselman	1992	35		16	Tagg Bozied	1975	32
7	Ramon Castro	1975	34		17	Johnny Edwards	1969	32
8	Tim Laudner	1975	34		18	Paul Carey	2000	31
9	Eric Christopherson	1957	34		19	Danny Ardoin	1979	30
10	Stan Lopata	1998	33		20	Alan Ashby	2005	30

Player Comments

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2007

Powell was the A`s number-one draft pick in 2004, didn`t do much as a first-year pro, and missed all of 2005 after tearing an ACL while working out in the off-season. Nice start, huh? We`d like to report a happy ending, or at least the beginning of a happy ending. Can`t do it, though: Powell turns 25 before Opening Day, he`s barely escaped Class A, and he`s never looked like anything but an adequate minor league hitter. He`s also in danger of eating himself out of whatever career he has left. He`ll get plenty of chances because of a big bonus. Let`s hope he hasn`t spent all of it on food, which, given his size in the Arizona Fall League, he very well might have.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	STO	1C	375	44	12	0	15	47	43	77	0	0	-4.7	.264	.350	.439	.065	.211	.286	.339	.220	-11.1	82-C 6	2.4
2006	MID	2A	45	4	0	0	1	4	3	12	0	0	-0.8	.268	.333	.341	-.120	.238	.304	.310	.217	-1.2	12-C 1	0.3
2007	MID	2A	256	46	9	2	11	39	36	40	1	0	-1.8	.292	.391	.502	.229	.259	.350	.446	.277	13.7	58-C 8	3.6
2007	SAC	3A	17	3	0	0	3	3	0	4	0	0	0.0	.294	.294	.824	.622	.294	.294	.824	.333	2.9		0.3

Historical Stats