Todd Redmond

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 2:24 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	8	9	0	26	26	152.3	164	56	78	20	42%	.284	2	1.44	4.43	5.06	4.68	9.3	3.1	4.2	1.1	18.5	3.0	3.4
75^o	7	10	0	25	25	142.0	164	55	72	23	42%	.294	-3	1.54	5.25	5.76	5.52	10.0	3.2	4.2	1.4	3.5	1.5	1.8
60^o	6	11	0	24	24	133.0	163	54	66	25	42%	.303	-7	1.63	6.00	6.41	6.29	10.6	3.4	4.1	1.6	-8.4	0.2	0.6
50^o	5	11	0	24	24	128.0	162	53	64	26	42%	.308	-10	1.68	6.42	6.78	6.71	10.9	3.4	4.1	1.7	-14.4	-0.4	0.0
40^o	4	11	0	30	21	122.0	160	52	60	27	41%	.314	-16	1.74	6.95	7.23	7.24	11.4	3.6	4.0	1.9	-21.2	-1.2	-0.8
25^o	3	10	0	31	19	112.0	156	50	54	28	41%	.324	-22	1.85	7.89	8.04	8.19	12.1	3.7	4.0	2.1	-31.7	-2.3	-1.9
10^o	2	9	0	31	15	90.3	143	45	42	29	41%	.345	-34	2.08	10.07	9.80	10.37	13.7	4.1	3.9	2.7	-48.3	-4.1	-3.7
Weighted Mean	5	11	0	32	22	131.7	165	55	65	26	42%	.306	-13	1.66	6.35	6.68	6.64	10.8	3.4	4.1	1.7	-12.9	-0.4	-0.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
19%	47%	26%	9%	1.45

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 23)	5	11	0	32	22	131.7	165	55	65	26	42%	.306	-13	1.66	6.35	6.68	6.64	10.8	3.4	4.1	1.7	-12.9	-0.4	-0.2
2009 (age 24)	4	8	0	33	14	97.3	119	39	52	18	41%	.306	-14	1.61	5.98	6.32	6.27	10.6	3.3	4.4	1.5	-5.7	0.0	0.3
2010 (age 25)	4	8	0	35	13	97.0	119	39	52	20	40%	.304	-16	1.63	6.19	6.61	6.46	10.7	3.4	4.4	1.8	-6.8	-0.3	0.1
2011 (age 26)	4	7	1	36	12	96.3	116	34	52	17	40%	.304	-13	1.55	5.75	6.06	6.02	10.4	2.9	4.4	1.5	-2.1	0.2	0.3
2012 (age 27)	3	6	0	32	10	82.3	101	27	44	15	40%	.307	-13	1.55	5.91	6.11	6.20	10.6	2.7	4.4	1.5	-2.7	0.0	0.2
2013 (age 28)	3	6	1	37	8	81.7	99	27	46	12	40%	.313	-11	1.54	5.76	5.86	6.08	10.5	2.8	4.6	1.3	-1.4	0.0	0.2
2014 (age 29)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.298	.394	.496
vs RHB	.281	.356	.453
Split	+.017	+.038	+.044
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	-0.2	$400,000	-16.0	1.9
2009	0.3	$475,000	-8.0	2.7
2010	0.1	$400,000	-8.8	4.0
2011	0.3	$550,000	-3.6	1.5
2012	0.2	$450,000	-4.0	2.0
2013	0.2	$450,000	-2.3	0.9
2014	0.4	$925,000	1.0	2.9
Peak	1.5	$725,000	1.0	14.7

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	5.52	6.71	8.19	6.64
2009	5.14	6.55	7.83	6.27
2010	5.23	6.31	7.78	6.46
2011	4.94	6.01	8.00	6.02
2012	5.25	6.72	9.59	6.20
2013	5.07	5.78	7.81	6.08
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	9%	0%	19%
2009	30%	7%	23%
2010	43%	22%	19%
2011	56%	38%	20%
2012	70%	46%	13%
2013	74%	64%	13%
2014	82%	71%	14%

70

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Rick Guttormson	2000	71		11	Ted Silva	1997	57
2	Ron Frazier	1992	62		12	Rich Fischer	2003	57
3	Dave Stevens	1993	62		13	Ron Blazier	1994	56
4	Ryan Franklin	1996	62		14	Mike Fyhrie	1993	55
5	Kyle Kendrick	2007	61		15	Fernando Rodriguez_Jr	2007	55
6	Kyle Lohse	2001	61		16	Brandon Reed	1998	55
7	Jamie Brown	2000	60		17	KENNY GRZELACZYK	1994	55
8	Shane Bazzell	2002	60		18	Nick Green	2007	54
9	Virgil Vasquez	2005	57		19	Mel Bunch	1994	54
10	Billy Carnline	2007	57		20	Mike Natale	2002	54

Player Comments

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2007

Redmond had a very effective first full pro season at Hickory after being taken in the 39th round as a draft-and-follow in 2005. He has more command than stuff, throwing a fastball, curve, and changeup for strikes at any point in the count. He profiles as a back of the rotation starter or middle reliever, which makes him one of the better talents in the organization.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	WPT	1A	1	2	0	15	14	72.7	62	21	63	2	47%	.297	-21	1.14	1.98	7.23	6.29	11.7	6.0	3.5	1.2	-4.5		0.3
2006	HIC	1B	13	6	0	27	27	160.2	137	33	148	13	40%	.280	-8	1.06	2.75	6.59	6.10	10.5	3.7	4.4	1.8	-7.9		1.3
2007	LYN	1C	7	12	0	25	25	142.7	151	32	95	13	41%	.312	-15	1.28	4.54	6.47	7.04	10.7	3.4	3.3	1.7	-21.1		-0.3
2007	ALT	2A	1	1	0	3	3	17.3	15	3	12	2	35%	.250	2	1.04	3.12	4.65	3.78	8.6	2.2	4.3	1.6	3.4		0.6

Historical Stats