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He's probably very handsome. Brian Rike
Colorado Rockies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Right Field
Bats L
Age 22
6' 2"
200 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2007 TRI 1A 223 36 13 1 4 29 32 54 7 3 0.2 .296 .404 .441 .253 .206 .287 .296 .209 -31.3 46-RF -6 0.2


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/19/08 1:15 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 553 75 36 3 13 63 55 132 11 5 0.2 .264 .340 .432 -.018 .243 .320 .403 .250 -4.1 130-RF -1 2.6
75o 507 58 30 3 10 53 47 127 10 4 0.1 .246 .320 .391 -.121 .227 .301 .364 .230 -14.9 120-RF 0 1.5
60o 490 53 28 2 9 50 44 125 10 4 0.1 .239 .312 .376 -.159 .220 .294 .350 .223 -18.3 116-RF 0 1.2
50o 476 49 26 2 8 47 42 124 9 4 0.1 .234 .306 .364 -.188 .216 .288 .340 .217 -20.7 113-RF 0 0.9
40o 462 45 25 2 7 44 40 122 9 4 0.1 .229 .301 .353 -.216 .211 .283 .330 .211 -22.8 109-RF 0 0.6
25o 431 37 22 2 6 39 36 117 8 4 0.1 .219 .288 .329 -.276 .201 .272 .307 .198 -26.8 102-RF 0 0.1
10o 366 25 16 1 3 28 28 106 7 3 0.1 .199 .265 .285 -.388 .183 .250 .266 .170 -31.4 88-RF 1 -0.6
Weighted Mean 480 48 26 2 8 47 42 126 9 4 0.1 .230 .301 .355 -.212 .212 .284 .331 .212 -18.7 113-RF 1 0.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

32%

61%

25%

14%

1.02

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 22) 480 48 26 2 8 47 42 126 9 4 0.1 .230 .301 .355 -.212 .212 .284 .331 .212 -18.7 113-RF 1 0.8
2009 (age 23) 476 51 26 2 10 49 44 122 9 4 0.1 .240 .313 .384 -.146 .218 .290 .352 .225 -12.7 112-RF 1 1.0
2010 (age 24) 495 59 29 3 11 54 49 121 11 5 0.0 .248 .326 .405 -.090 .225 .302 .371 .237 -6.8 117-RF 1 1.1
2011 (age 25) 470 56 28 3 11 54 46 109 10 4 0.0 .257 .332 .417 -.057 .233 .308 .382 .243 -3.5 111-RF 0 0.9
2012 (age 26) 429 48 24 2 10 51 40 98 10 4 0.0 .253 .327 .406 -.083 .230 .303 .372 .238 -3.3 102-RF 1 0.6
2013 (age 27)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 28)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .203 .273 .307
vs RHP .238 .314 .384
Split -.035 -.041 -.077
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 -0.6 1.5 0.8 $900,000 -20.2 0.0
2009 0.0 1.1 1.0 $1,100,000 -14.0 0.7
2010 0.2 0.9 1.1 $1,325,000 -7.7 0.9
2011 0.3 0.6 0.9 $1,175,000 -4.8 0.5
2012 0.2 0.5 0.6 $850,000 -3.9 0.8
2013 0.2 0.3 0.5 $775,000 -2.2 0.9
2014 0.1 0.2 0.4 $675,000 -1.1 0.8
Peak 5.0 $3,125,000 -1.1 4.5


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .230 .217 .198 .212
2009 .248 .225 .205 .225
2010 .257 .236 .217 .237
2011 .262 .246 .213 .243
2012 .258 .231 .214 .238
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 14% 0% 32%
2009 29% 16% 46%
2010 42% 37% 51%
2011 53% 45% 48%
2012 68% 61% 48%
2013 80% 77% 42%
2014 89% 84% 41%

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