Alberto Rosario

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2007	ANG	Rk	81	11	4	0	1	9	5	9	2	2	-0.6	.301	.350	.397	-.501	.195	.222	.260	.160	-20.7	19-C 6	0.4
2008	ORM	Rk	57	5	5	1	0	9	1	13	0	0	-0.1	.236	.263	.364	-.730	.143	.158	.196	.000	-17.9	13-C 4	-0.3
2008	CDR	A	49	5	2	0	0	2	1	11	1	1	0.2	.239	.255	.283	-.565	.191	.208	.234	.124	-6.5	14-C 6	0.3
2008	RCU	A+	134	11	5	0	0	14	8	18	3	1	-0.7	.218	.261	.258	-.593	.175	.215	.206	.127	-18.6	36-C -2	-1.4

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 12:26 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	353	25	15	1	2	28	16	72	3	2	-0.6	.220	.259	.293	-.353	.219	.261	.306	.194	-15.1	85-C 4	0.3
75^o	342	22	14	1	2	26	15	71	3	2	-0.5	.210	.249	.277	-.401	.209	.251	.289	.182	-18.4	82-C 4	0.0
60^o	321	17	11	1	1	23	14	69	2	2	-0.5	.194	.231	.249	-.482	.193	.233	.260	.159	-23.3	78-C 3	-0.7
50^o	309	15	10	0	1	21	13	68	2	2	-0.4	.185	.222	.235	-.523	.184	.223	.245	.145	-25.4	75-C 3	-1.0
40^o	291	12	8	0	1	18	11	66	2	1	-0.4	.174	.210	.217	-.575	.173	.211	.226	.125	-27.4	71-C 3	-1.3
25^o	272	10	7	0	1	16	10	63	2	1	-0.4	.166	.200	.202	-.616	.165	.202	.211	.104	-28.3	67-C 3	-1.5
10^o	198	5	4	0	0	8	7	51	1	1	-0.2	.140	.172	.159	-.741	.139	.173	.166	.021	-26.3	50-C 2	-1.5
Weighted Mean	302	15	10	0	1	21	12	66	2	2	-0.4	.186	.222	.236	-.501	.185	.224	.246	.146	-24.3	73-C 4	-0.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
59%	68%	25%	20%	1.15

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 22)	302	15	10	0	1	21	12	66	2	2	-0.4	.186	.222	.236	-.501	.185	.224	.246	.146	-24.3	73-C 4	-0.7
2010 (age 23)	268	13	10	0	1	18	12	58	2	2	-0.3	.192	.229	.249	-.474	.193	.234	.263	.158	-13.9	66-C 3	-0.3
2011 (age 24)	246	13	9	0	1	18	11	50	2	1	-0.2	.197	.236	.260	-.442	.198	.241	.275	.168	-7.8	61-C 2	0.0
2012 (age 25)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 26)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 27)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 28)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.202	.241	.265
vs RHP	.182	.217	.227
Split	+.020	+.024	+.038
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-21.8	4.0	-0.7	$400,000	-20.3	0.0
2010	-17.4	3.0	-0.3	$400,000	-11.5	0.1
2011	-14.2	2.0	0.0	$400,000	-6.2	0.1
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak			0.0	0.0	-2.4	0.3

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.182	.145	.104	.146
2010	.185	.153	.112	.158
2011	.207	.166	.119	.168
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	20%	0%	59%
2010	51%	28%	65%
2011	74%	53%	64%
2012	78%	69%	54%
2013	82%	74%	58%
2014	87%	80%	56%
2015	92%	85%	52%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

62

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Luis Apodaca	2005	67		11	Jaime Moreno	1986	49
2	Javier Ochoa	2001	65		12	Johnny Cuevas	1988	49
3	Gabriel Gutierrez	2006	64		13	Jose Reyes	2005	49
4	Jose Stela	1992	62		14	Cesar Devarez	1992	48
5	Jorge Morales	1993	57		15	Jose Lopez	2007	48
6	Wally Rosa	2004	56		16	Brad Hargreaves	2000	47
7	Fernando Lunar	1999	54		17	Clemente Alvarez	1990	46
8	Felix Antigua	1991	51		18	Edgal Rodriguez	1989	45
9	Jean Sanchez	2001	51		19	Robinson Cancel	1998	45
10	Blake Ochoa	2008	50		20	Ricky Gonzalez	1997	45

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