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He's probably very handsome. Brant Rustich
New York Mets [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 23
6' 6"
225 lbs.
Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2007 KNG 0R 1 0 0 5 2 10.3 6 1 10 0 54% .214 -9 0.68 0.87 4.48 2.79 6.5 2.8 3.7 0.9 3.0 0.4
2007 BRO 1A 2 0 2 10 0 12.7 4 1 11 2 52% .069 -27 0.39 2.13 5.54 5.73 5.7 1.6 4.1 4.1 -0.2 0.2


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/19/08 3:07 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 6 6 0 35 14 105.3 106 47 61 11 46% .280 -4 1.45 4.25 4.91 4.66 9.0 3.6 4.7 0.9 12.1 1.7 2.4
75o 6 6 0 35 13 102.0 107 47 59 13 46% .284 -8 1.51 4.78 5.37 5.25 9.4 3.7 4.6 1.1 4.8 1.0 1.6
60o 5 6 0 35 13 98.7 107 48 56 15 46% .288 -11 1.57 5.32 5.83 5.84 9.8 3.9 4.5 1.3 -2.1 0.3 0.9
50o 5 6 0 35 13 96.0 108 48 54 16 46% .292 -14 1.63 5.81 6.24 6.37 10.1 4.0 4.5 1.5 -7.8 -0.3 0.3
40o 4 6 0 34 12 92.7 108 49 51 17 46% .296 -18 1.69 6.36 6.71 6.96 10.5 4.2 4.4 1.6 -13.9 -0.8 -0.3
25o 4 7 0 34 12 87.7 109 49 47 19 46% .303 -23 1.79 7.28 7.48 7.95 11.1 4.5 4.3 1.9 -23.3 -1.7 -1.2
10o 2 6 0 32 10 75.0 106 48 38 23 45% .319 -38 2.05 10.00 9.49 10.90 12.6 5.2 4.0 2.7 -45.3 -3.8 -3.4
Weighted Mean 5 6 0 34 12 92.7 105 47 52 16 46% .293 -15 1.63 5.91 6.29 6.48 10.1 4.1 4.5 1.5 -8.6 -0.4 0.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

0%

0%

0%

0%

1.44

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 23) 5 6 0 34 12 92.7 105 47 52 16 46% .293 -15 1.63 5.91 6.29 6.48 10.1 4.1 4.5 1.5 -8.6 -0.4 0.0
2009 (age 24) 6 6 0 39 12 103.0 110 48 59 17 45% .278 -14 1.53 5.30 5.81 5.79 9.5 3.8 4.6 1.5 -1.2 0.3 0.6
2010 (age 25) 4 5 0 33 8 76.0 83 34 45 12 46% .290 -13 1.54 5.47 5.77 6.01 9.8 3.6 4.8 1.3 -2.0 0.0 0.3
2011 (age 26) 3 3 0 25 4 50.3 55 22 31 7 44% .295 -10 1.52 5.31 5.54 5.86 9.7 3.5 5.0 1.2 -0.7 0.0 0.2
2012 (age 27) 3 3 1 31 4 61.3 63 24 40 7 45% .288 -6 1.42 4.89 5.01 5.42 9.2 3.1 5.2 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.3
2013 (age 28)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 29)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .237 .334 .439
vs RHB .228 .297 .392
Split +.008 +.038 +.048
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 0.0 $400,000 -10.1 1.9
2009 0.6 $750,000 -2.3 3.1
2010 0.3 $500,000 -2.8 1.0
2011 0.2 $475,000 -1.2 1.0
2012 0.3 $575,000 0.3 1.3
2013 0.3 $850,000 1.4 1.2
2014 0.3 $1,000,000 1.9 1.0
Peak 2.0 $1,350,000 5.1 9.5


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 5.25 6.37 7.95 6.48
2009 4.83 5.83 7.37 5.79
2010 4.95 6.45 9.10 6.01
2011 4.88 6.10 7.86 5.86
2012 4.35 5.40 8.33 5.42
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 N/A 0% N/A
2009 27% 19% 1%
2010 50% 28% 4%
2011 58% 37% 4%
2012 76% 64% 4%
2013 78% 76% 7%
2014 90% 84% 4%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

2

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Rob Zimmermann 2005 29 11 Paul Henry 2004 20
2 Russ Brock 1993 26 12 Derek Adair 1999 19
3 Josh Baker 2005 25 13 Marcus Jones 1998 19
4 Ryan Earey 2002 23 14 Rick Heiserman 1996 17
5 Neil Jamison 2007 23 15 Blake Owen 2007 17
6 Pat Neshek 2004 23 16 Ryan Brannan 1998 16
7 Luke Steidlmayer 2004 23 17 Jeremy Griffiths 2001 16
8 Brett Harker 2007 23 18 Steve Long 1992 16
9 Nick Moran 2003 22 19 Bob Bennett 1994 16
10 Brett Jodie 2000 20 20 Matt Davis 2005 16

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