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Chris Shelton
Texas Rangers [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
First Base
Bats R
Age 28
6'
215 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Rangers Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
1B 6 Chris Shelton 5 33 .256 4 1 4 0 .345 .443 0.5
1   2008 Total 5 33 .256 4 1 4 0 .345 .443 0.5

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 TOL 3A 211 34 19 0 8 39 25 33 0 2 1.6 .331 .417 .569 .442 .306 .389 .530 .305 18.4 31-1B 1 1.9
2005 DET MJ 431 61 22 3 18 59 34 87 0 0 1.8 .299 .360 .510 .208 .309 .377 .545 .308 28.2 83-1B 3 4.1
2006 TOL 3A 129 20 6 2 3 14 18 37 1 0 -0.6 .266 .372 .440 .189 .227 .333 .427 .266 0.7 24-1B -2 0.5
2006 DET MJ 412 50 16 4 16 47 34 107 1 2 -0.5 .273 .340 .466 .049 .274 .347 .482 .279 9.5 102-1B -5 1.8
2007 TOL 3A 594 75 31 1 14 65 83 141 4 2 -0.7 .269 .381 .420 .160 .257 .363 .422 .275 14.3 128-1B 2 3.7


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 7:13 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 605 91 34 3 26 84 75 144 4 2 -0.6 .276 .373 .502 .160 .273 .373 .515 .305 31.9 142-1B 1 5.3
75o 572 78 31 2 22 77 67 139 4 2 -0.6 .266 .360 .474 .094 .263 .359 .486 .293 21.2 134-1B 0 4.2
60o 545 68 28 2 20 71 62 134 4 2 -0.5 .259 .349 .452 .044 .256 .349 .464 .284 13.7 128-1B -1 3.4
50o 531 64 27 2 18 68 59 132 4 2 -0.5 .255 .344 .441 .018 .252 .344 .452 .279 9.9 125-1B -2 3.0
40o 518 60 26 2 17 65 56 129 4 2 -0.5 .251 .339 .430 -.007 .248 .338 .441 .274 6.6 122-1B -2 2.7
25o 483 50 23 2 14 58 49 123 4 2 -0.4 .242 .326 .404 -.068 .239 .326 .414 .262 -0.9 114-1B -3 1.8
10o 436 39 19 1 11 49 41 114 3 2 -0.4 .230 .309 .370 -.149 .227 .309 .380 .245 -9.2 104-1B -3 0.8
Weighted Mean 551 68 28 2 19 71 61 136 4 2 -0.5 .256 .345 .443 .023 .253 .345 .454 .279 9.0 129-1B -1 3.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

12%

41%

24%

14%

0.78

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 28) 551 68 28 2 19 71 61 136 4 2 -0.5 .256 .345 .443 .023 .253 .345 .454 .279 9.0 129-1B -1 3.5
2009 (age 29) 510 60 25 2 18 66 57 127 4 2 -0.4 .255 .343 .438 .014 .256 .349 .458 .278 7.8 120-1B -2 2.7
2010 (age 30) 517 62 27 2 18 71 58 132 4 2 -0.4 .255 .345 .446 .025 .256 .350 .466 .280 7.5 122-1B -3 2.4
2011 (age 31) 511 60 25 1 18 67 58 125 3 2 -0.4 .253 .345 .438 .015 .254 .350 .458 .278 5.8 120-1B -4 2.0
2012 (age 32) 437 49 21 1 16 56 50 112 3 1 -0.3 .253 .346 .442 .022 .254 .352 .462 .280 5.0 104-1B -3 1.7
2013 (age 33) 429 44 20 1 14 57 48 114 2 1 -0.2 .243 .335 .418 -.035 .244 .340 .437 .268 1.1 102-1B -4 1.0
2014 (age 34) 449 52 21 1 17 60 56 108 2 1 -0.2 .255 .350 .450 .041 .256 .356 .471 .283 3.6 106-1B -4 1.1

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .269 .363 .463
vs RHP .251 .336 .428
Split +.018 +.027 +.035
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 2.6 0.8 3.5 $6,250,000 10.4 6.0
2009 2.1 0.6 2.7 $5,075,000 8.9 7.3
2010 1.9 0.5 2.4 $4,725,000 8.4 7.0
2011 1.6 0.4 2.0 $3,725,000 5.6 3.6
2012 1.3 0.4 1.7 $3,450,000 5.5 6.0
2013 0.8 0.2 1.0 $1,500,000 0.7 1.7
2014 0.8 0.2 1.1 $2,350,000 3.1 2.5
Peak 13.2 $19,450,000 39.5 31.6


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .293 .279 .262 .279
2009 .288 .269 .251 .278
2010 .287 .270 .251 .280
2011 .290 .269 .242 .278
2012 .286 .265 .246 .280
2013 .282 .253 .211 .268
2014 .303 .272 .227 .283


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 14% 0% 12%
2009 32% 8% 13%
2010 48% 23% 9%
2011 48% 33% 7%
2012 59% 40% 7%
2013 69% 49% 4%
2014 78% 61% 7%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

There`s a working theory that Shelton`s hot start--he hit .326/.404/.783 with 10 home runs in April--was the worst thing that could have happened to him. Shelton struck out in 26 percent of his plate appearances from May 1 onward, swinging at any breaking ball in the 313 area code. Although he`ll be 27 next year, the organization regards him more as a prospect than a short-term fix, which means he might stay in the minors rather than sit on the bench as Sean Casey`s platoon partner. The Tigers haven`t given up on him, rather they want him to use the whole field and become a well-rounded hitter. It`s worth remembering that Shelton`s career minor league batting average is .327.

2006

The Rule 5 layoff is supposed to be a big drag on a player`s development, but Shelton didn`t get the memo. Scouts run him down for not being athletic, but there`s a certain level of hitting ability where that stops making a difference and Shelton is way over that line. He`s not a great defensive first baseman, but doesn`t show up as being bad. Comerica Park`s roomy dimensions also didn`t phase him; he batted .316/.367/.541 in Detroit, .279/.351/.475 on the road. Shelton`s future is bright enough for shades.

2005

Rule 5 picks have awfully high injury rates, and Shelton missed about five weeks with plantar fascitis, first on the Disabled List and then on a rehab stint with Toledo, and was used sparingly in Detroit when he was around. The Tigers dispatched him to the AFL to make up for the lost playing time, and he responded by hitting a monster .404/.470/.667. The organization doesn't seem serious about using him as a backup catcher—most of his appearances in the AFL were at DH—and there's less need for an emergency backstop with Brandon Inge also on the roster, but Shelton looks like a legitimate major leaguer based on his potent bat alone.


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