Josh Shortslef

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/10/09 6:23 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	4	3	1	27	7	67.7	60	26	51	5	47%	.276	10	1.28	3.81	0	4.05	7.9	3.0	5.8	0.6	12.5	1.5	1.9
75^o	4	3	1	26	7	62.0	65	27	44	6	48%	.302	4	1.47	4.61	0	4.84	9.3	3.4	5.5	0.8	5.8	0.8	1.1
60^o	3	4	0	25	7	59.3	67	27	40	6	48%	.316	1	1.58	5.07	0	5.28	10.0	3.5	5.2	1.0	2.5	0.5	0.8
50^o	3	4	0	25	7	56.7	68	27	37	7	48%	.327	-2	1.67	5.49	0	5.69	10.7	3.7	5.0	1.1	-0.2	0.2	0.5
40^o	3	4	0	25	7	56.0	69	27	36	7	48%	.330	-2	1.70	5.60	0	5.80	10.9	3.8	5.0	1.1	-1.0	0.2	0.4
25^o	2	3	0	23	6	50.0	72	27	29	8	48%	.358	-10	1.96	6.70	0	6.83	12.7	4.2	4.5	1.4	-6.8	-0.4	-0.3
10^o	2	3	0	21	6	43.7	73	26	22	8	49%	.387	-19	2.27	7.97	0	8.01	14.9	4.7	3.8	1.7	-11.9	-0.9	-0.8
Weighted Mean	3	3	0	24	7	55.0	67	26	36	7	48%	.328	-2	1.68	5.49	0	5.68	10.8	3.7	5.0	1.1	-0.2	0.2	0.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
36%	71%	9%	7%	0.95

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2009 (age 27)	3	3	0	24	7	55.0	67	26	36	7	48%	.328	-2	1.68	5.49	0	5.68	10.8	3.7	5.0	1.1	-0.2	0.2	0.4
2010 (age 28)	3	3	0	23	7	55.0	66	25	37	7	47%	.326	-1	1.64	5.35	0	5.53	10.7	3.5	5.2	1.1	0.6	0.3	0.3
2011 (age 29)	3	3	0	21	6	50.0	60	22	31	6	45%	.321	-3	1.63	5.20	0	5.36	10.7	3.5	4.8	1.1	1.1	0.4	0.3
2012 (age 30)	3	3	0	23	6	53.0	60	21	31	4	47%	.313	-2	1.53	4.76	0	4.97	10.0	3.2	4.6	0.7	1.6	0.6	0.3
2013 (age 31)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 32)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 33)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.248	.341	.374
vs RHB	.275	.366	.445
Split	-.027	-.025	-.071
LgAvg	-.020	-.021	-.054

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2009	0.4	$650,000	-1.0	1.0
2010	0.3	$725,000	0.0	1.3
2011	0.3	$800,000	0.6	2.0
2012	0.3	$875,000	1.3	1.3
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak	1.6	$1,325,000	3.1	6.5

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	4.84	5.69	6.83	5.68
2010	4.56	5.47	6.41	5.53
2011	4.29	5.70	6.74	5.36
2012	4.07	5.07	5.96	4.97
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	7%	0%	36%
2010	42%	30%	29%
2011	54%	45%	26%
2012	68%	62%	25%
2013	83%	74%	24%
2014	85%	80%	22%
2015	96%	90%	14%

63

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Scott Wiggins	2003	56		11	Mark Malaska	2005	49
2	Tim Hamulack	2004	54		12	Dusty Bergman	2005	49
3	Tim Kubinski	1999	51		13	Fred Dabney	1995	48
4	Todd Rizzo	1998	51		14	Matt Yourkin	2008	48
5	Ryan Cullen	2007	51		15	Mike Buddie	1998	46
6	Ken Grundt	1997	51		16	Dave Carroll	1999	46
7	Geoffrey Jones	2007	51		17	Mark Watson	2001	46
8	Reese Lambert	1990	50		18	Tom McGraw	1995	44
9	Bob Tufts	1983	50		19	Mike Kusiewicz	2004	44
10	Steve Allen	1993	50		20	Jason Cromer	2008	44

Player Comments

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2007

Josh Shortslef finally made the 40-man roster after seven seasons, which might make some of you wonder if any part of that is a typo. A strained arm cut his season short, but he`s tough on lefties and keeps the ball in the infield; John Grabow might need to start worrying.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	PIR	Ind	1	1	0	3	2	16.1	15	3	12	1	61%	.292	-21	1.12	3.91	0	9.69	14.5	3.5	2.8	2.8	-5.9	0.0	-0.6
2006	ALT	AA	6	2	0	12	12	60.2	62	13	50	4	50%	.339	4	1.25	4.49	-2	6.83	12.3	2.7	4.3	1.2	-7.4	0.0	-0.1
2007	ALT	AA	5	13	0	27	27	149.3	170	59	85	12	51%	.330	-3	1.53	4.40	-6	6.55	12.4	4.2	2.9	1.4	-14.2	0.0	0.2
2008	ALT	AA	5	2	3	29	1	62.3	59	25	51	3	53%	.306	1	1.35	3.47	0	4.83	9.5	3.5	5.3	0.8	5.1	0.0	1.4

Historical Stats