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He's probably very handsome. Jacob Smolinski
Washington Nationals [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Left Field
Bats R
Age 19
5' 11"
185 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2007 NAT 0R 119 18 8 0 1 16 13 24 7 2 0.9 .305 .387 .410 .157 .218 .277 .291 .203 -25.9 23-LF -3 0.0


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/19/08 1:09 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 550 62 29 2 8 45 49 133 17 7 0.5 .242 .313 .356 -.181 .242 .314 .363 .237 -11.9 129-LF -1 2.0
75o 523 52 25 2 6 41 42 132 17 6 0.5 .226 .293 .327 -.266 .226 .293 .334 .220 -21.7 123-LF -1 1.0
60o 510 47 23 2 6 38 40 131 16 6 0.5 .219 .283 .315 -.304 .218 .284 .321 .211 -25.7 120-LF -1 0.6
50o 500 44 22 2 5 37 37 130 16 6 0.4 .213 .276 .305 -.334 .213 .276 .311 .205 -28.7 118-LF -1 0.3
40o 487 40 20 2 5 35 35 129 16 5 0.4 .206 .267 .293 -.370 .206 .267 .299 .196 -32.0 115-LF -1 0.0
25o 469 35 18 2 4 32 31 128 15 5 0.4 .197 .255 .277 -.418 .197 .255 .282 .184 -36.1 111-LF -1 -0.5
10o 448 30 16 2 3 29 28 125 15 5 0.3 .188 .242 .261 -.468 .188 .243 .266 .171 -39.7 106-LF 0 -0.9
Weighted Mean 491 39 20 2 5 34 34 132 16 5 0.4 .202 .262 .286 -.392 .202 .262 .291 .190 -31.4 116-LF 0 0.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

26%

45%

39%

4%

1.05

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 19) 491 39 20 2 5 34 34 132 16 5 0.4 .202 .262 .286 -.392 .202 .262 .291 .190 -31.4 116-LF 0 0.0
2009 (age 20) 551 50 24 2 7 43 36 139 19 6 0.4 .213 .267 .311 -.343 .209 .263 .311 .202 -29.1 129-LF 1 0.3
2010 (age 21) 535 51 24 2 9 46 35 123 18 6 0.3 .219 .274 .331 -.300 .216 .270 .332 .212 -22.6 126-LF 1 0.8
2011 (age 22) 495 47 22 2 9 42 35 112 15 6 0.3 .223 .282 .338 -.275 .219 .278 .338 .217 -18.2 117-LF 0 0.8
2012 (age 23) 524 51 23 2 9 49 36 115 16 5 0.2 .224 .281 .339 -.274 .220 .277 .339 .217 -15.2 123-LF -1 0.6
2013 (age 24) 559 70 28 3 12 60 46 106 21 6 0.2 .252 .316 .391 -.123 .248 .311 .392 .249 -2.0 131-LF 1 1.6
2014 (age 25) 461 50 23 3 8 43 39 96 13 4 0.1 .250 .318 .375 -.142 .246 .313 .375 .244 -2.4 109-LF 2 1.2

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .218 .279 .313
vs RHP .198 .255 .275
Split +.020 +.024 +.038
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 -1.5 1.4 0.0 $400,000 -32.5 0.0
2009 -1.2 1.5 0.3 $550,000 -28.8 0.0
2010 -0.7 1.4 0.8 $900,000 -22.1 0.4
2011 -0.4 1.2 0.8 $1,000,000 -19.0 1.1
2012 -0.4 1.0 0.6 $875,000 -16.1 0.8
2013 0.7 1.0 1.6 $2,475,000 -1.6 3.6
2014 0.3 0.9 1.2 $1,875,000 -2.0 0.3
Peak 8.1 $6,575,000 -3.1 6.3


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .220 .205 .184 .190
2009 .221 .203 .181 .202
2010 .228 .217 .188 .212
2011 .235 .217 .196 .217
2012 .237 .207 .194 .217
2013 .276 .244 .219 .249
2014 .264 .255 .231 .244


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 4% 0% 26%
2009 3% 0% 29%
2010 7% 5% 49%
2011 12% 8% 50%
2012 26% 25% 47%
2013 42% 39% 61%
2014 55% 53% 63%

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