John Suomi

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	LYN	A+	282	30	19	1	3	34	25	43	0	1	0.5	.260	.336	.382	-.503	.173	.227	.258	.161	-32.0	53-C -10	-3.2
2007	CLR	A+	75	12	5	0	2	7	12	6	0	0	0.6	.258	.387	.435	-.427	.167	.267	.258	.184	-6.9	16-C -3	-0.7
2007	HAR	AA	122	11	7	1	2	14	7	19	0	0	-1.3	.223	.281	.357	-.604	.148	.190	.243	.125	-17.4	30-C -9	-2.1
2007	COH	AAA	20	3	0	1	0	1	2	4	0	0	0.3	.176	.250	.294	-.411	.176	.250	.294	.200	-1.6	5-C -1	0.0
2008	REA	AA	118	14	5	1	3	13	9	12	0	0	0.4	.236	.305	.387	-.510	.165	.220	.266	.163	-13.0	29-C -5	-1.2
2008	LEH	AAA	88	6	8	0	1	9	2	11	0	0	0.2	.244	.261	.372	-.412	.209	.227	.314	.177	-7.6	22-C -6	-1.1

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 12:33 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	249	20	12	1	3	20	17	46	0	0	-0.2	.222	.279	.324	-.286	.219	.277	.334	.213	-6.7	62-C -6	-0.3
75^o	245	16	11	1	3	19	15	47	0	0	-0.2	.197	.250	.285	-.406	.195	.248	.294	.183	-13.3	61-C -6	-1.0
60^o	241	14	10	1	2	18	13	48	0	0	-0.2	.181	.230	.259	-.486	.179	.228	.267	.159	-17.6	60-C -6	-1.4
50^o	239	12	9	1	2	17	12	49	0	0	-0.2	.169	.215	.241	-.544	.167	.214	.248	.139	-20.6	59-C -6	-1.7
40^o	236	11	9	1	2	16	11	49	0	0	-0.2	.161	.205	.228	-.584	.159	.204	.235	.122	-22.6	59-C -6	-1.9
25^o	223	7	7	0	1	12	8	52	0	0	-0.1	.128	.162	.175	-.749	.126	.161	.180	.023	-29.9	56-C -5	-2.5
10^o	223	7	7	0	1	12	8	52	0	0	-0.1	.131	.167	.181	-.732	.130	.166	.186	.023	-29.0	56-C -5	-2.5
Weighted Mean	233	11	9	1	2	16	11	48	0	0	-0.2	.164	.209	.232	-.541	.162	.207	.239	.127	-22.2	58-C -4	-1.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
30%	37%	54%	28%	1.41

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 28)	233	11	9	1	2	16	11	48	0	0	-0.2	.164	.209	.232	-.541	.162	.207	.239	.127	-22.2	58-C -4	-1.5
2010 (age 29)	234	13	10	0	2	18	13	48	0	0	-0.1	.179	.229	.259	-.479	.179	.230	.270	.158	-11.6	58-C -4	-0.7
2011 (age 30)	283	16	12	1	2	21	14	61	0	0	-0.1	.169	.216	.246	-.525	.169	.218	.257	.142	-11.2	69-C -5	-0.7
2012 (age 31)	206	11	8	0	2	15	11	43	0	0	0.0	.180	.227	.254	-.487	.180	.229	.265	.154	-5.2	52-C -5	-0.4
2013 (age 32)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 33)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 34)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.135	.179	.169
vs RHP	.169	.217	.253
Split	-.034	-.037	-.084
LgAvg	-.035	-.040	-.079

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-19.6	-4.0	-1.5	$400,000	-26.1	0.0
2010	-15.4	-4.0	-0.7	$400,000	-13.8	0.1
2011	-21.4	-5.0	-0.7	$400,000	-12.9	0.1
2012	-14.0	-5.0	-0.4	$400,000	-6.3	0.1
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.183	.139	.023	.127
2010	.209	.167	.119	.158
2011	.192	.156	.095	.142
2012	.196	.168	.138	.154
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	28%	0%	30%
2010	52%	29%	34%
2011	61%	48%	27%
2012	82%	64%	25%
2013	84%	76%	29%
2014	88%	84%	25%
2015	94%	90%	26%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

60

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Joe Siddall	1996	59		11	Joe Kmak	1992	46
2	Ed Fulton	1994	52		12	Ron Jones	1993	46
3	Craig Mayes	1999	50		13	Darron Cox	1996	44
4	Tim Decinces	2003	49		14	Robinson Cancel	2005	44
5	Dwight Lowry	1986	49		15	Tom Lampkin	1992	43
6	Brian Loyd	2002	48		16	Mark Strittmatter	1997	43
7	Doug Newstrom	2000	47		17	Willie Morales	2001	43
8	Dave Toth	1998	47		18	Scott Makarewicz	1995	43
9	Adam Brown	1995	47		19	Charlie Greene	1999	43
10	Pedro Lopez	1997	47		20	Jeff Smith	2003	43

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