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Fernando Tatis
New York Mets [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Third Base
Bats R
Age 33
5' 10"
175 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
ESPN Player Card
tsn.ca Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Mets Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
1B 5 Fernando Tatis 5 34 .265 4 0 4 0 .340 .437 1.3
1   2008 Total 5 34 .265 4 0 4 0 .340 .437 1.3

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 OTT 3A 368 44 15 2 7 37 36 56 8 2 1.1 .298 .372 .420 .150 .280 .353 .418 .271 19.0 83-3B -2 2.8
2006 BAL MJ 64 7 6 1 2 8 6 17 0 0 -0.6 .250 .313 .500 .024 .255 .328 .491 .279 1.7 0.3
2007 NWO 3A 572 90 31 5 21 67 62 103 8 6 2.1 .276 .359 .485 .130 .245 .327 .434 .262 19.4 122-3B 6 4.3


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 7:52 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 599 94 37 5 21 86 64 112 9 4 0.5 .294 .374 .505 .160 .298 .378 .526 .301 45.9 140-3B 0 6.6
75o 563 79 33 4 18 75 57 106 8 4 0.5 .281 .358 .473 .082 .285 .362 .493 .288 32.5 132-3B -1 5.4
60o 536 69 29 4 16 68 53 101 7 4 0.4 .271 .347 .450 .024 .275 .351 .469 .278 23.4 126-3B -1 4.5
50o 506 60 26 4 14 60 48 96 7 3 0.4 .261 .335 .426 -.038 .264 .338 .443 .266 14.6 119-3B -2 3.6
40o 485 54 24 3 12 54 45 92 6 3 0.4 .253 .326 .409 -.080 .257 .330 .426 .258 9.2 115-3B -2 3.0
25o 468 49 22 3 11 50 42 89 6 3 0.4 .248 .319 .395 -.115 .251 .323 .411 .251 4.9 111-3B -2 2.6
10o 404 34 17 2 7 36 33 77 5 3 0.3 .228 .296 .349 -.232 .231 .299 .363 .227 -7.1 96-3B -3 1.2
Weighted Mean 565 72 30 4 16 70 54 107 8 4 0.4 .265 .340 .437 -.009 .269 .344 .455 .271 21.8 132-3B -1 4.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

26%

47%

21%

18%

0.97

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 33) 565 72 30 4 16 70 54 107 8 4 0.4 .265 .340 .437 -.009 .269 .344 .455 .271 21.8 132-3B -1 4.2
2009 (age 34) 370 39 19 3 10 46 38 71 5 2 0.2 .261 .341 .429 -.022 .260 .339 .439 .270 10.8 89-3B -2 2.5
2010 (age 35) 350 36 18 2 10 43 35 68 4 2 0.2 .262 .340 .430 -.023 .261 .338 .440 .269 7.9 84-3B -4 1.7
2011 (age 36) 203 17 10 1 5 25 20 39 3 1 0.1 .257 .333 .419 -.052 .257 .332 .428 .264 4.0 51-3B -4 0.9
2012 (age 37)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 38)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .279 .357 .460
vs RHP .261 .332 .420
Split +.018 +.025 +.040
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 2.2 2.0 4.2 $8,925,000 19.8 17.4
2009 1.4 1.1 2.5 $4,600,000 8.9 9.7
2010 1.0 0.7 1.7 $2,950,000 5.1 7.3
2011 0.6 0.4 0.9 $1,475,000 1.6 3.0
2012 0.4 0.2 0.6 $1,200,000 1.6 1.9
2013 0.2 0.1 0.3 $575,000 -0.6 0.3
2014 0.1 0.1 0.2 $550,000 -0.2 0.3
Peak 10.1 $16,125,000 36.4 39.7


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .288 .266 .251 .271
2009 .291 .273 .242 .270
2010 .290 .266 .240 .269
2011 .280 .256 .228 .264
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 18% 0% 26%
2009 51% 15% 22%
2010 63% 31% 21%
2011 83% 48% 9%
2012 87% 72% 6%
2013 88% 84% 4%
2014 97% 87% 1%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Tatis`s return to the majors was a nice story, but like cotton candy, beyond the sweetness there was almost nothing of substance. The Orioles had an especially difficult time attracting minor league free agents in 2006--it seems nobody wants to go Ottawa--and that left them with reclamation projects such as Tatis, who had been out of pro ball completely for two years. He showed that he could still hit in the majors, but fielded like someone who hadn`t worn a glove in a decade.

2003

Tatis was unlike any third baseman in baseball in 1999. Just 24, he was a short, powerfully built dynamo, stuffed with power, patience, and athleticism. He then spent nearly half the next season on the shelf, drawing rips from Tony LaRussa for his poor work ethic and attitude. Still, the Expos looked to have a steal when they flipped Dustin Hermanson, his bloated contract and plummeting peripherals, along with Steve Kline to St. Louis for Tatis and Britt Reames. A team with no viable third baseman since Tim Wallach circa 1990 had to take the risk. Don’t hold your breath waiting for a happy ending. Two years of an often overweight, chronically injured Tatis has set his $6.75 million salary in 2003 up as a Lee Stevens-sized albatross, only worse. As of press time Tatis had made Omar Minaya’s quest to shave $15 million off the payroll while getting quality in return a Herculean task.

2002

Tatis rubbed Tony LaRussa the wrong way, causing him to be briefly reunited with Felipe Alou, who played with Tatis’s father in the Dominican Republic and is a close family friend. One injury after another (strained groin, partially torn labrum, back problems) marred his season before knee surgery scuttled it altogether. A healthy body and a focused attitude are all that Tatis needs to regain his 1999 form, but the unforgiving turf at Olympic Stadium and the turmoil surrounding the team don’t make either a sure thing.

2001

A very unfriendly torn groin put a real damper on Fernando Tatis's season. He's made tremendous strides offensively and, if healthy, will be one of the third-base stars of the ’00s along with Troy Glaus, Eric Chavez, Adrian Beltre, and the like. He's a young veteran coming off an injury; look out. I think he'll step forward and completely obliterate that projection with the Expos. The Vladimir forecasting system shows him at .292/.390/.575.

2000

We copped out last year by saying we didn't know what to expect, projecting him to hit .290 with 20 home runs, while giving that projection a less-than-ringing endorsement. Tatis ended up having the kind of year that should remind all of us that when a player explodes through the minors to reach the majors by 22, he might struggle with adjustments for a year or two, but the talent is going to emerge. What was amazing about Tatis is that there wasn't a phase of the game in which he didn't improve, and it’s especially interesting how quickly he went from being an impatient hitter to having a good walk rate. I think the improvement is real.

1999

Is he a prospect? To be honest, at this point I’m not really certain. What do you choose, the two months with the Cardinals, when he was new to the league, or his pathetic four months with the Rangers? With a gun to my head, I’d say he could live up to that projection, but that the Rangers won’t miss him that badly.

1998

He’s generally considered the best hitting prospect the Rangers have. Baseball America called him the best defensive third baseman in the Texas League, with the best arm. He steals in double digits every season. He showed resolve when he came back sooner than expected from injury in ‘96. Vlad projects an slugging percentage of .500 in the majors next year, when he’ll be 23 years old.

1997

Tatis, a slugging third baseman from San Pedro de Macoris, is the best hitting prospect in the organization. He missed the first two months of the season with a broken hamate bone that required surgery, but came back much sooner than expected. He can certainly hit, and he’s got room to get stronger. He hasn’t displayed either range or hands at third base.


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