Matt Tolbert

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Projected Playing Time
Twins Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)

Pos Order Name PT% PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP

3B 7 Matt Tolbert 15 97 .254 17 1 13 3 .313 .366 1.2

2B 8 Matt Tolbert 10 63 .254 17 1 13 3 .313 .366 1.2

2 2008 Total 25 160 .254 17 1 13 3 .313 .366 1.2

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2005	FTM	1C	472	55	20	6	3	46	35	80	11	4	0.0	.266	.326	.365	-.009	.224	.277	.311	.209	-22.1	58-2B 2	1.2
2006	FTM	1C	173	20	6	3	4	24	14	17	7	2	0.8	.303	.360	.458	.215	.266	.318	.411	.254	4.4	25-2B -2	0.9
2006	NBR	2A	292	33	15	1	3	35	30	43	5	1	1.3	.258	.341	.363	.010	.236	.311	.339	.236	-3.6	26-2B -7	0.9
2007	ROC	3A	477	65	24	7	6	53	37	56	11	3	3.9	.293	.353	.427	.090	.271	.329	.416	.261	15.9	99-2B -12	3.2

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 8:05 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	538	71	30	6	8	52	44	84	11	4	1.4	.280	.344	.418	.007	.282	.348	.441	.279	24.6	126-2B 0	4.9
75^o	515	61	27	5	7	47	40	82	11	4	1.3	.267	.328	.392	-.064	.269	.332	.413	.266	14.5	121-2B -1	3.8
60^o	499	55	25	5	6	44	37	80	10	3	1.2	.258	.318	.374	-.111	.260	.322	.394	.257	8.3	118-2B -2	3.2
50^o	492	52	24	5	5	42	36	80	10	3	1.2	.254	.313	.366	-.132	.256	.317	.386	.252	5.6	116-2B -3	2.9
40^o	484	49	23	5	5	41	35	79	10	3	1.2	.250	.308	.357	-.156	.251	.312	.376	.248	2.7	114-2B -3	2.6
25^o	459	41	20	4	4	36	31	76	9	3	1.1	.237	.292	.331	-.225	.238	.296	.349	.233	-5.3	109-2B -4	1.7
10^o	433	34	17	4	3	32	28	73	8	3	1.0	.224	.277	.306	-.293	.226	.281	.322	.218	-12.3	103-2B -5	0.9
Weighted Mean	531	59	25	5	6	46	39	86	11	4	1.2	.254	.313	.366	-.133	.256	.317	.385	.252	4.0	125-2B -2	3.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
29%	63%	15%	12%	0.70

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 26)	531	59	25	5	6	46	39	86	11	4	1.2	.254	.313	.366	-.133	.256	.317	.385	.252	4.0	125-2B -2	3.5
2009 (age 27)	502	54	25	5	5	43	35	79	10	3	1.0	.255	.312	.366	-.133	.260	.321	.393	.251	4.6	118-2B -4	2.6
2010 (age 28)	491	53	24	4	5	43	38	78	9	3	0.9	.256	.317	.366	-.124	.261	.326	.393	.254	4.9	116-2B -4	2.3
2011 (age 29)	495	55	24	5	6	47	38	79	9	3	0.8	.262	.322	.379	-.094	.267	.332	.407	.259	6.5	117-2B -6	2.2
2012 (age 30)	480	50	25	4	6	43	34	77	8	3	0.6	.257	.313	.373	-.121	.262	.322	.400	.253	4.0	113-2B -3	1.9
2013 (age 31)	500	57	27	3	7	49	38	76	8	3	0.6	.268	.328	.389	-.068	.273	.337	.418	.264	6.8	118-2B -7	1.8
2014 (age 32)	508	58	26	4	8	52	36	77	7	2	0.5	.270	.325	.394	-.062	.276	.335	.424	.263	5.7	120-2B -9	1.5

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.260	.315	.372
vs RHP	.252	.312	.362
Split	+.007	+.003	+.011
LgAvg	+.004	-.004	+.007

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	1.1	2.4	3.5	$5,475,000	5.5	5.2
2009	0.9	1.6	2.6	$4,075,000	4.8	5.7
2010	0.9	1.5	2.3	$4,025,000	4.8	6.3
2011	1.0	1.2	2.2	$4,225,000	6.0	8.4
2012	0.7	1.2	1.9	$3,675,000	4.5	6.9
2013	0.9	0.9	1.8	$4,050,000	5.9	7.6
2014	0.7	0.8	1.5	$3,400,000	4.1	4.4
Peak			14.2	$19,450,000	31.5	40.0

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.266	.252	.233	.252
2009	.264	.245	.224	.251
2010	.266	.252	.226	.254
2011	.264	.254	.232	.259
2012	.264	.244	.228	.253
2013	.267	.257	.229	.264
2014	.267	.258	.233	.263

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	12%	0%	29%
2009	26%	12%	27%
2010	32%	22%	23%
2011	44%	29%	25%
2012	46%	40%	19%
2013	56%	47%	18%
2014	62%	58%	16%

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