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Matt Tuiasosopo
Seattle Mariners [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Third Base
Bats R
Age 22
6' 2"
210 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 WIS 1B 464 72 21 3 6 45 44 96 8 5 -2.2 .276 .359 .386 .057 .226 .289 .316 .212 -12.1 76-SS -23 -1.1
2006 SBR 1C 253 31 14 0 1 34 14 58 5 6 1.0 .306 .359 .379 .040 .227 .267 .286 .189 -12.4 39-SS -5 -0.3
2006 SAN 2A 241 16 4 0 1 10 20 64 2 1 0.5 .185 .259 .218 -.425 .167 .229 .190 .130 -29.9 56-3B -13 -1.9
2007 WTN 2A 548 74 27 5 9 57 76 113 4 8 0.8 .260 .371 .404 .077 .236 .334 .371 .251 7.2 127-3B -2 3.0


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 8:16 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 614 74 33 2 13 62 65 145 8 5 0.5 .262 .345 .404 -.021 .265 .349 .430 .275 19.5 144-3B -8 3.9
75o 592 63 29 2 10 55 59 144 7 4 0.5 .247 .327 .371 -.106 .250 .330 .395 .259 6.4 138-3B -7 2.8
60o 572 54 26 2 8 49 54 142 6 4 0.4 .235 .312 .344 -.174 .238 .315 .366 .244 -3.5 134-3B -6 1.9
50o 561 50 24 2 7 46 51 141 6 4 0.4 .229 .304 .328 -.213 .231 .307 .349 .236 -8.8 132-3B -6 1.5
40o 547 45 23 2 6 42 48 140 6 4 0.4 .221 .294 .311 -.257 .223 .297 .331 .225 -14.6 128-3B -6 1.0
25o 534 41 21 1 5 39 45 139 5 4 0.4 .214 .285 .295 -.298 .216 .288 .314 .215 -19.7 125-3B -5 0.5
10o 513 34 18 1 3 34 41 137 5 3 0.3 .203 .271 .271 -.358 .205 .274 .289 .200 -26.5 121-3B -4 0.0
Weighted Mean 619 59 27 2 8 52 57 155 7 4 0.4 .231 .306 .333 -.202 .233 .309 .354 .238 -9.1 145-3B -7 2.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

49%

70%

11%

10%

0.98

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 22) 619 59 27 2 8 52 57 155 7 4 0.4 .231 .306 .333 -.202 .233 .309 .354 .238 -9.1 145-3B -7 2.1
2009 (age 23) 600 60 27 2 9 54 57 145 7 4 0.4 .237 .316 .349 -.159 .244 .325 .378 .247 -1.3 140-3B -8 2.3
2010 (age 24) 462 41 20 2 7 41 44 106 5 3 0.3 .242 .318 .350 -.151 .248 .327 .380 .248 -0.2 109-3B -5 2.0
2011 (age 25) 506 48 24 2 8 48 49 115 5 3 0.3 .241 .319 .360 -.138 .248 .327 .390 .251 1.4 119-3B -6 2.2
2012 (age 26) 514 50 24 2 9 46 50 121 4 3 0.2 .244 .322 .365 -.124 .250 .331 .395 .254 2.4 121-3B -9 1.7
2013 (age 27) 631 69 32 2 12 65 59 141 6 4 0.2 .251 .324 .383 -.093 .258 .332 .415 .260 5.5 147-3B -13 1.9
2014 (age 28) 607 64 29 2 10 62 62 125 5 3 0.2 .247 .327 .367 -.112 .253 .335 .398 .257 3.5 142-3B -7 2.1

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .245 .324 .358
vs RHP .226 .298 .321
Split +.019 +.026 +.036
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.5 1.6 2.1 $2,375,000 -12.6 1.2
2009 1.0 1.3 2.3 $2,975,000 -6.4 3.0
2010 0.8 1.2 2.0 $2,625,000 -2.9 4.3
2011 1.0 1.2 2.2 $3,050,000 -1.4 5.0
2012 0.9 0.8 1.7 $2,500,000 -1.9 3.7
2013 1.2 0.7 1.9 $2,925,000 -0.7 4.3
2014 1.1 1.1 2.1 $4,150,000 1.7 2.4
Peak 12.3 $11,925,000 1.7 22.7


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .259 .236 .215 .238
2009 .261 .243 .221 .247
2010 .264 .239 .220 .248
2011 .270 .244 .222 .251
2012 .267 .251 .220 .254
2013 .278 .248 .228 .260
2014 .271 .242 .229 .257


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 10% 0% 49%
2009 6% 3% 62%
2010 26% 6% 67%
2011 25% 10% 61%
2012 49% 16% 64%
2013 45% 27% 63%
2014 37% 28% 60%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Stop us if you`ve heard this one before: Baby Tui was rushed to Double-A. Rushed, as in, he was the youngest player in the Texas League aside from a couple of kids who got one-game shots of espresso. Among the whippersnappers who got substantial playing time, Tuiasosopo was 22 days younger than the next youngest guy, Wichita`s Billy Butler. This illustrates the problem in the Mariners system: Butler was young for Double-A as well, but he had the distinction of having hit very well at every stop along the way--whipping the Pioneer League and overpowering the California League with a .348 batting average and 25 homers--earning his promotion. In contrast, the Mariners ignored Tuiasosopo`s double-digit isolated power at Inland Empire (.073), blindly kicking him up to San Antonio based on an empty .300 batting average. Beyond the M`s questionable player development policies, there are plenty of questions about whether Tuiasosopo has the basic baseball talent to justify the money the team spent to keep him away from football.

2006

The local boy picked in the 3rd round in 2004 out of Woodinville High improved on his debut campaign in Everett, but Tui`s still got lots of holes to plug. Projections of power potential are based solely on his athleticism and not results, and his defense is atrocious. The M`s could move him to third or the outfield, but then would his bat be able to carry the position? He doesn`t turn 20 until May, but it`s hard to see much there, even if you squint.

2005

Even tools mavens thought this was a stretch pick, and the Mariners spent heavily to sign him—just as they did with Michael Garciaparra the year before. You could put a pitch-back screen between second and third, aim it at first, and it would have been as effective in the field. And the hitting—he's got a bat, but his approach this year in Everett…more pitch-back screen. At some point, he's going to move to the outfield, or at least third.


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