Mark Wagner

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 8:53 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	526	64	39	1	13	73	49	78	3	2	-0.6	.279	.350	.450	.057	.271	.346	.459	.282	24.7	124-C -5	4.8
75^o	496	53	34	1	10	63	43	76	3	2	-0.6	.264	.332	.415	-.029	.257	.328	.424	.265	13.2	117-C -5	3.7
60^o	464	42	29	1	8	54	38	74	2	2	-0.5	.249	.313	.380	-.116	.242	.310	.389	.248	2.8	110-C -5	2.6
50^o	449	38	27	1	7	50	35	73	2	1	-0.5	.243	.305	.366	-.153	.236	.302	.374	.240	-1.3	106-C -5	2.2
40^o	438	35	26	1	6	47	33	72	2	1	-0.5	.238	.300	.354	-.181	.232	.296	.362	.234	-4.1	104-C -5	1.8
25^o	426	32	24	1	5	45	32	71	2	1	-0.4	.233	.294	.344	-.208	.227	.291	.351	.228	-6.8	101-C -6	1.6
10^o	390	24	20	1	4	36	27	67	2	1	-0.4	.219	.276	.310	-.292	.213	.273	.317	.208	-13.9	93-C -6	0.7
Weighted Mean	484	45	30	1	8	56	39	77	2	2	-0.5	.248	.312	.378	-.122	.241	.309	.386	.246	1.2	114-C -6	2.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
30%	46%	17%	6%	0.96

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 24)	484	45	30	1	8	56	39	77	2	2	-0.5	.248	.312	.378	-.122	.241	.309	.386	.246	1.2	114-C -6	2.8
2009 (age 25)	426	38	26	1	8	51	34	65	2	2	-0.4	.252	.316	.383	-.105	.249	.318	.399	.249	2.9	101-C -5	2.3
2010 (age 26)	363	31	22	1	8	46	31	53	2	1	-0.3	.253	.320	.397	-.079	.250	.322	.413	.255	3.9	87-C -5	1.8
2011 (age 27)	327	27	20	1	6	41	29	48	2	1	-0.2	.256	.327	.400	-.062	.253	.328	.416	.259	3.4	79-C -7	1.3
2012 (age 28)	335	29	21	1	7	44	30	48	1	1	-0.2	.266	.336	.409	-.027	.263	.338	.426	.265	4.8	81-C -5	1.4
2013 (age 29)	407	35	24	1	7	52	32	57	1	1	-0.2	.258	.320	.384	-.094	.254	.321	.400	.251	1.8	97-C -7	1.0
2014 (age 30)	300	23	16	0	6	38	22	39	1	1	-0.2	.257	.318	.390	-.090	.254	.320	.406	.252	1.5	73-C -5	1.0

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.263	.330	.402
vs RHP	.243	.304	.364
Split	+.020	+.026	+.038
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	0.8	2.0	2.8	$3,725,000	1.2	5.6
2009	0.7	1.5	2.3	$3,300,000	3.0	6.6
2010	0.7	1.1	1.8	$2,950,000	3.5	5.9
2011	0.6	0.7	1.3	$2,025,000	2.3	5.4
2012	0.7	0.8	1.4	$2,850,000	4.5	6.8
2013	0.4	0.6	1.0	$1,725,000	1.2	2.9
2014	0.3	0.7	1.0	$1,875,000	1.5	4.2
Peak			10.6	$12,125,000	16.0	33.3

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.265	.240	.228	.246
2009	.259	.249	.231	.249
2010	.266	.248	.228	.255
2011	.275	.239	.225	.259
2012	.277	.247	.232	.265
2013	.277	.250	.216	.251
2014	.285	.240	.208	.252

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	6%	0%	30%
2009	28%	11%	23%
2010	43%	28%	29%
2011	70%	44%	24%
2012	67%	50%	28%
2013	68%	59%	24%
2014	82%	66%	21%

Player Comments

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2007

A ninth-round pick in 2005, Wagner broke out in his first full year as a pro at Greenville, both at the plate--showing on-base skills and gap power--and behind it, where he threw out 32 percent of baserunners. That earned him Sally League All-Star honors and a promotion to Wilmington. Though he didn`t hit there, he`s bound for a return engagement to start the season, and could reach Double-A by midsummer. He and Kotteras give the Red Sox two more catching prospects than most teams have.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2005	LOW	1A	81	10	2	1	0	6	9	7	1	1	-0.7	.203	.309	.261	-.190	.205	.272	.288	.192	-8.4	21-C -3	0.1
2006	GRN	1B	407	49	32	1	7	45	42	52	1	3	0.9	.301	.386	.456	.216	.249	.314	.382	.241	3.0	64-C -4	1.5
2006	WIL	1C	74	8	4	0	1	5	7	9	0	0	-2.0	.169	.243	.277	-.323	.209	.267	.313	.206	-3.8	13-C -3	0.1
2007	LNC	1C	431	71	35	1	14	82	55	46	0	1	-0.8	.318	.406	.533	.214	.255	.333	.409	.258	11.4	81-C 0	3.3

Historical Stats