Josh Wall

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Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	OGD	0R	3	5	0	14	14	66.1	80	33	41	5	52%	.347	-48	1.71	5.85	9.15	10.71	12.4	7.9	1.9	1.9	-32.9		-2.7
2007	GRL	1B	6	10	1	26	24	129.3	136	48	103	8		.319	-28	1.42	4.18	7.72	7.96	11.4	6.5	3.3	1.6	-29.6		-1.5

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 3:31 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	6	8	0	22	22	119.7	131	71	60	18	45%	.284	-9	1.69	5.33	5.93	5.59	9.6	4.8	4.0	1.3	2.1	1.1	1.5
75^o	5	8	0	22	22	111.7	128	75	55	18	45%	.294	-14	1.82	6.15	6.61	6.45	10.1	5.3	3.9	1.4	-9.0	0.0	0.3
60^o	4	9	0	21	21	103.3	125	77	50	18	45%	.303	-20	1.95	7.04	7.33	7.39	10.6	6.0	3.8	1.5	-19.6	-1.1	-0.8
50^o	4	9	0	21	21	98.7	123	78	47	18	45%	.309	-23	2.04	7.60	7.76	7.98	10.9	6.3	3.8	1.6	-25.4	-1.8	-1.5
40^o	3	9	0	25	18	93.0	120	78	44	18	45%	.315	-30	2.13	8.30	8.25	8.73	11.3	6.7	3.8	1.7	-32.0	-2.5	-2.1
25^o	2	8	0	24	17	85.0	113	76	40	17	45%	.322	-35	2.23	9.41	8.76	9.96	11.7	7.2	3.7	1.8	-41.3	-3.4	-3.1
10^o	2	8	0	23	15	78.7	90	52	39	13	46%	.293	-26	1.80	10.91	6.53	12.39	10.0	5.3	3.9	1.4	-60.4	-5.3	-5.0
Weighted Mean	4	8	0	26	19	99.7	122	76	48	18	45%	.306	-24	1.99	7.36	7.50	7.74	10.8	6.1	3.8	1.5	-20.9	-1.5	-1.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
31%	60%	20%	14%	1.56

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 21)	4	8	0	26	19	99.7	122	76	48	18	45%	.306	-24	1.99	7.36	7.50	7.74	10.8	6.1	3.8	1.5	-20.9	-1.5	-1.3
2009 (age 22)	4	7	0	28	14	85.3	105	56	44	17	45%	.303	-25	1.88	7.14	7.30	7.46	10.8	5.3	4.1	1.8	-13.9	-1.1	-0.8
2010 (age 23)	3	6	0	27	11	76.3	94	50	39	15	44%	.304	-25	1.87	7.11	7.19	7.44	10.8	5.2	4.1	1.7	-11.4	-1.0	-0.6
2011 (age 24)	4	6	0	35	10	84.0	100	50	46	12	45%	.312	-19	1.79	6.19	6.48	6.52	10.4	4.8	4.3	1.2	-4.3	-0.3	0.0
2012 (age 25)	3	5	0	29	8	68.0	82	33	36	11	44%	.308	-18	1.69	6.37	6.30	6.72	10.5	3.9	4.2	1.4	-4.4	-0.4	-0.1
2013 (age 26)	2	4	0	23	5	51.0	63	27	28	9	45%	.310	-20	1.75	6.67	6.81	6.99	10.8	4.2	4.3	1.6	-3.7	-0.5	-0.1
2014 (age 27)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.302	.439	.497
vs RHB	.291	.400	.460
Split	+.012	+.040	+.038
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	-1.3	$400,000	-23.7	0.6
2009	-0.8	$400,000	-16.0	1.1
2010	-0.6	$400,000	-13.1	1.0
2011	0.0	$400,000	-5.6	0.5
2012	0.0	$400,000	-5.5	1.1
2013	0.0	$400,000	-4.4	0.3
2014	0.0	$400,000	-2.2	0.2
Peak	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.5

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	6.45	7.98	9.96	7.74
2009	5.80	7.69	10.79	7.46
2010	5.95	7.39	11.09	7.44
2011	5.33	6.39	8.01	6.52
2012	5.66	6.77	8.51	6.72
2013	5.69	7.07	8.36	6.99
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	14%	0%	31%
2009	32%	12%	32%
2010	48%	29%	31%
2011	57%	41%	35%
2012	60%	49%	29%
2013	74%	56%	24%
2014	79%	67%	24%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

66

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Phil Merrell	1999	62		11	Charlie Morton	2005	52
2	RICK CLELLAND	1993	60		12	Michael Schlact	2007	52
3	Jeremy Powell	1997	58		13	David Coggin	1998	52
4	Luther Hackman	1996	57		14	Geronimo Mendoza	2001	52
5	Chris Reed	1995	57		15	Doug Waechter	2002	51
6	Scott Pisciotta	1994	56		16	Justin Duchscherer	1999	51
7	Kenny Pumphrey	1998	56		17	Donnie Bridges	2000	51
8	Brett Herbison	1998	53		18	Collin Balester	2007	50
9	Brian West	2002	53		19	Gary Glover	1998	50
10	Tony McKnight	1998	52		20	Jimmy Barrett	2002	49

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