Casey Weathers

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Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2007	ASH	1B	0	1	2	13	0	13.7	6	7	19	2	54%	.160	-16	0.95	4.60	5.09	6.39	5.0	7.1	7.1	2.1	-1.1		0.2
2007	MOD	1C	0	0	0	1	0	1.0	0	2	2	0	100%	.000	-21	2.00	0.00	7.12	0.00	0.0	18.0	9.0	0.0	0.6		0.0

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 3:39 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	7	5	1	37	13	106.3	92	59	92	11	46%	.271	13	1.41	3.82	3.78	3.69	7.0	4.3	7.4	0.9	26.5	3.0	3.6
75^o	6	6	1	36	12	99.0	94	64	82	12	46%	.286	5	1.60	4.88	4.62	4.67	7.8	5.1	7.1	1.0	13.4	1.7	2.2
60^o	5	6	0	36	12	94.3	95	68	76	13	46%	.296	-1	1.73	5.62	5.20	5.35	8.3	5.6	6.9	1.1	5.4	1.0	1.4
50^o	4	6	0	35	12	91.7	96	70	72	13	46%	.302	-4	1.81	6.07	5.56	5.77	8.5	6.0	6.7	1.2	0.9	0.5	0.9
40^o	4	6	0	35	12	90.0	96	71	70	13	47%	.305	-6	1.85	6.30	5.74	5.98	8.7	6.2	6.7	1.2	-1.3	0.3	0.7
25^o	3	6	0	34	11	82.3	97	75	60	14	47%	.322	-16	2.09	7.70	6.85	7.27	9.6	7.2	6.3	1.4	-13.5	-0.9	-0.5
10^o	2	6	0	32	11	73.3	97	78	50	15	47%	.340	-28	2.38	9.46	8.15	8.90	10.8	8.4	5.8	1.6	-25.9	-2.1	-1.8
Weighted Mean	4	5	0	34	11	86.0	88	63	69	12	46%	.297	-2	1.75	5.75	5.29	5.47	8.3	5.7	6.8	1.1	3.8	0.7	1.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
0%	0%	0%	0%	1.32

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 23)	4	5	0	34	11	86.0	88	63	69	12	46%	.297	-2	1.75	5.75	5.29	5.47	8.3	5.7	6.8	1.1	3.8	0.7	1.0
2009 (age 24)	4	5	1	35	8	80.7	81	49	62	11	47%	.290	-1	1.60	5.31	4.73	5.10	8.2	4.8	6.5	1.1	6.8	0.9	1.3
2010 (age 25)	4	4	1	33	7	73.3	74	40	56	9	47%	.292	1	1.55	5.06	4.54	4.87	8.2	4.3	6.6	1.0	8.1	1.0	1.3
2011 (age 26)	4	4	1	30	6	66.3	66	35	51	7	47%	.294	2	1.52	4.84	4.34	4.67	8.1	4.2	6.6	0.9	8.8	1.0	1.3
2012 (age 27)	4	4	1	36	7	76.3	78	40	53	9	48%	.293	-2	1.54	4.96	4.44	4.79	8.3	4.1	6.0	0.9	7.5	1.1	1.2
2013 (age 28)	4	4	1	34	5	68.0	66	35	51	8	48%	.286	1	1.49	4.77	4.29	4.60	7.9	4.0	6.4	0.9	8.1	1.0	1.2
2014 (age 29)	2	2	0	18	3	36.3	36	18	29	4	46%	.292	4	1.48	4.85	4.25	4.68	8.1	3.9	6.9	1.0	5.1	0.5	0.8

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.210	.397	.394
vs RHB	.202	.360	.346
Split	+.008	+.038	+.048
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	1.0	$1,225,000	0.9	4.1
2009	1.3	$2,100,000	4.3	7.3
2010	1.3	$2,600,000	5.8	7.6
2011	1.3	$2,950,000	6.8	6.7
2012	1.2	$2,700,000	5.6	5.4
2013	1.2	$3,050,000	6.4	4.4
2014	0.8	$2,050,000	3.9	3.0
Peak	7.4	$10,050,000	28.9	35.5

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	4.67	5.77	7.27	5.47
2009	4.00	5.20	6.33	5.10
2010	3.75	4.54	6.76	4.87
2011	4.15	5.75	6.93	4.67
2012	4.01	4.72	6.41	4.79
2013	3.42	4.58	5.65	4.60
2014	3.64	5.39	6.84	4.68

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	N/A	0%	N/A
2009	20%	9%	36%
2010	26%	17%	42%
2011	39%	22%	33%
2012	39%	32%	34%
2013	45%	39%	34%
2014	60%	47%	22%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

2

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Dustin Hermanson	1996	40		11	Ryan Wagner	2005	24
2	Chris Macca	1997	35		12	Mark McCormick	2006	21
3	Royce Ring	2004	32		13	Matt Durkin	2006	20
4	Mike Zimmerman	1992	32		14	Mike Drumright	1997	19
5	David Aardsma	2005	32		15	Scott Sullivan	1994	19
6	Kyle Bono	2006	29		16	Matt Anderson	1999	18
7	Russ Ortiz	1997	26		17	Justin Orenduff	2006	18
8	Kevin Whelan	2007	25		18	Cade Gaspar	1996	18
9	Jesse Crain	2004	25		19	Chad Harville	1999	17
10	Chad Cordero	2005	24		20	Nate Bump	1999	16

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