Charlie Zink

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 5:01 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	7	6	0	21	21	119.7	122	59	58	13	44%	.276	-3	1.51	4.47	4.60	4.38	8.6	4.0	4.0	0.9	17.1	2.6	2.8
75^o	5	8	0	20	20	106.7	121	66	50	13	44%	.297	-12	1.75	5.83	5.65	5.69	9.6	5.1	3.9	1.1	-2.0	0.6	0.9
60^o	5	8	0	20	20	102.3	120	68	48	13	45%	.304	-15	1.83	6.34	6.03	6.18	9.9	5.4	3.8	1.1	-8.1	0.0	0.2
50^o	4	8	0	20	20	96.0	119	70	44	13	45%	.314	-20	1.96	7.08	6.59	6.90	10.4	6.0	3.8	1.2	-16.1	-0.9	-0.6
40^o	3	8	0	24	17	86.7	114	72	39	13	45%	.329	-29	2.14	8.31	7.39	8.10	11.1	6.8	3.7	1.3	-27.5	-2.1	-1.8
25^o	3	8	0	24	15	80.3	109	69	36	12	46%	.334	-33	2.21	9.31	7.72	9.15	11.4	7.1	3.7	1.3	-35.9	-3.0	-2.7
10^o	2	8	0	23	13	81.0	78	34	39	8	46%	.264	-16	1.39	10.53	4.05	11.57	8.2	3.5	4.0	0.9	-60.4	-5.3	-4.9
Weighted Mean	4	6	0	22	15	83.3	100	57	39	11	45%	.307	-20	1.87	6.68	6.21	6.52	10.1	5.6	3.8	1.1	-10.7	-0.4	0.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
18%	46%	36%	23%	1.43

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 28)	4	6	0	22	15	83.3	100	57	39	11	45%	.307	-20	1.87	6.68	6.21	6.52	10.1	5.6	3.8	1.1	-10.7	-0.4	0.0
2009 (age 29)	4	7	0	25	15	88.3	106	59	45	12	44%	.310	-20	1.86	6.63	6.20	6.45	10.1	5.5	4.2	1.2	-6.5	-0.4	0.1
2010 (age 30)	4	6	0	24	14	82.3	99	55	42	11	42%	.313	-20	1.86	6.49	6.16	6.30	10.1	5.4	4.2	1.1	-3.9	-0.2	0.1
2011 (age 31)	4	6	0	24	14	85.3	99	52	42	8	44%	.310	-16	1.76	6.01	5.62	5.90	9.8	5.0	4.1	0.8	-1.8	0.2	0.3
2012 (age 32)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 33)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 34)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.298	.421	.485
vs RHB	.291	.400	.448
Split	+.007	+.020	+.037
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	0.0	$400,000	-10.1	3.5
2009	0.1	$400,000	-6.2	1.6
2010	0.1	$425,000	-3.7	1.1
2011	0.3	$525,000	-1.6	1.6
2012	0.3	$525,000	-1.0	0.4
2013	0.2	$475,000	-0.9	0.1
2014	0.2	$550,000	0.2	0.5
Peak	1.1	$375,000	0.2	8.4

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	5.69	6.90	9.15	6.52
2009	5.37	6.73	8.28	6.45
2010	4.99	6.18	7.33	6.30
2011	4.50	6.78	8.64	5.90
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	23%	0%	18%
2009	51%	35%	16%
2010	69%	54%	17%
2011	73%	62%	13%
2012	74%	72%	7%
2013	73%	71%	5%
2014	86%	76%	8%

52

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Mike Smith	2006	69		11	Mark Thompson	2000	40
2	Tim Wakefield	1995	64		12	Jeff Carter	1993	38
3	Steve Sparks	1994	52		13	Christian Parker	2004	38
4	Luis Estrella	2003	49		14	Miguel Jimenez	1998	37
5	Kip Bouknight	2007	48		15	Jared Fernandez	2000	36
6	Dennis Springer	1993	45		16	Steve Renko	1996	36
7	Ryan Glynn	2003	43		17	Brian Cooper	2003	35
8	Chris Rojas	2006	43		18	Jason Secoda	2003	35
9	John Desilva	1996	43		19	Fred Rath	2001	34
10	Robert Ellis	1999	42		20	Greg Keagle	2000	34

Player Comments

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2007

If you squint, you can see a replacement-level pitcher emerging from the statistical fog, but knuckleballer Charlie Zink needs another breakthrough to merit a shot at the majors. For now, he remains a curiosity.

2006

After a year and a half of mediocre pitching, the organization apparently put some pressure on Zink to work a little harder on his five-day routine. Late in the season he tried a new grip on his knuckleball and pitched several good innings. The Red Sox sent him to the Arizona Fall League to see if he was legit, and he pitched poorly. He needs a good year in Triple-A to get back on track; right now his status as a rare knuckleballer is more of a novelty than anything else.

2005

Explanations for Zink's terrible season range from "I don't know" to "That's what you get for putting him on your Top 50 Prospects List." The truth is Zink's a knuckleballer and knuckleballers are more susceptible to this kind of random performance variance than "normal" pitchers. That's one ugly PECOTA forecast; Zink could easily blow that projection away, or fare even worse.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	PME	2A	8	5	0	29	15	105.3	102	53	70	12	42%	.291	-31	1.47	4.87	7.09	7.35	10.1	6.3	3.5	1.6	-18.3		-0.2
2005	PAW	3A	2	1	0	4	1	10.3	17	8	5	1	31%	.421	-57	2.43	10.49	13.09	13.03	15.8	8.4	2.8	0.9	-8.0		-1.1
2006	PME	2A	1	0	0	2	1	7.0	6	5	7	1	43%	.250	-29	1.57	1.29	7.36	5.40	9.4	8.1	5.4	2.7	0.1		0.1
2006	PAW	3A	9	4	0	23	15	109.1	100	60	58	7	44%	.274	-20	1.47	4.04	5.36	5.52	8.9	6.0	3.3	1.0	0.9		1.9
2007	PME	2A	9	3	0	16	16	92.7	92	44	55	6	52%	.301	-14	1.47	3.98	5.72	5.86	9.7	5.1	3.5	0.9	-2.5		1.4
2007	PAW	3A	2	3	0	8	8	47.3	51	27	23	8	43%	.269	-30	1.65	5.90	8.04	8.35	10.3	5.4	2.9	2.1	-14.1		-0.5

Historical Stats