David Aardsma

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 5:57 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	4	2	5	53	2	59.7	48	23	54	5	42%	.263	13	1.18	2.73	2.80	2.71	6.8	3.1	7.4	0.7	20.6	2.0	2.8
75^o	3	2	4	50	1	55.3	48	23	49	5	43%	.275	10	1.27	3.38	3.29	3.34	7.3	3.4	7.4	0.8	14.9	1.4	2.1
60^o	3	2	3	48	1	52.3	48	22	46	5	43%	.284	7	1.34	3.88	3.68	3.82	7.7	3.5	7.3	0.9	11.0	1.0	1.7
50^o	3	2	3	46	1	49.3	47	22	43	6	43%	.293	5	1.41	4.39	4.07	4.31	8.1	3.7	7.2	1.0	7.3	0.7	1.2
40^o	2	2	2	46	0	45.3	46	22	39	6	43%	.305	1	1.50	5.10	4.61	4.98	8.7	3.9	7.1	1.1	3.0	0.2	0.7
25^o	2	2	2	43	0	41.7	45	21	36	6	43%	.314	-2	1.59	5.72	5.09	5.57	9.2	4.2	7.0	1.3	-0.3	-0.1	0.4
10^o	1	2	1	35	0	34.3	42	19	29	6	43%	.336	-10	1.78	7.16	6.20	6.93	10.4	4.7	6.9	1.5	-6.0	-0.5	-0.2
Weighted Mean	3	2	3	49	0	48.0	46	21	42	5	43%	.291	5	1.39	4.32	4.00	4.24	8.0	3.7	7.2	1.0	7.5	0.6	1.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
46%	60%	19%	26%	0.99

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 26)	3	2	3	49	0	48.0	46	21	42	5	43%	.291	5	1.39	4.32	4.00	4.24	8.0	3.7	7.2	1.0	7.5	0.6	1.3
2009 (age 27)	3	2	3	49	0	48.0	47	22	43	5	43%	.300	4	1.43	4.40	4.19	4.30	8.2	3.8	7.4	1.0	5.9	0.6	1.0
2010 (age 28)	3	2	3	47	0	46.0	44	19	40	5	40%	.296	5	1.38	4.12	3.86	4.04	8.1	3.5	7.1	0.9	6.6	0.7	1.1
2011 (age 29)	2	2	3	41	0	40.3	39	17	36	4	43%	.300	5	1.39	4.30	3.97	4.23	8.2	3.5	7.3	0.9	4.3	0.6	0.7
2012 (age 30)	3	2	3	48	0	46.0	44	20	43	5	42%	.298	7	1.38	4.19	4.06	4.09	8.1	3.5	7.7	1.0	4.2	0.7	0.7
2013 (age 31)	2	2	2	35	0	35.0	35	14	30	4	43%	.302	4	1.40	4.35	3.98	4.28	8.4	3.4	7.2	0.9	3.0	0.5	0.5
2014 (age 32)	2	1	2	31	0	30.7	31	11	27	4	42%	.300	6	1.34	4.18	3.93	4.09	8.4	3.0	7.3	1.0	3.0	0.5	0.5

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.245	.360	.396
vs RHB	.242	.328	.380
Split	+.003	+.033	+.016
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	1.3	$2,475,000	7.6	5.5
2009	1.0	$2,100,000	6.0	5.0
2010	1.1	$2,400,000	6.7	5.8
2011	0.7	$1,725,000	4.3	3.6
2012	0.7	$1,750,000	4.2	3.0
2013	0.5	$1,425,000	3.0	2.4
2014	0.5	$1,475,000	3.0	1.7
Peak	5.3	$8,125,000	28.8	25.3

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	3.34	4.31	5.57	4.24
2009	3.69	4.43	5.92	4.30
2010	3.34	4.45	5.89	4.04
2011	3.56	4.82	6.03	4.23
2012	3.04	4.82	5.92	4.09
2013	3.48	4.49	5.94	4.28
2014	3.67	4.37	5.38	4.09

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	26%	0%	46%
2009	39%	24%	28%
2010	45%	25%	34%
2011	58%	39%	24%
2012	61%	53%	22%
2013	66%	58%	14%
2014	73%	66%	15%

57

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Jeff Parrett	1988	67		11	Yhency Brazoban	2006	44
2	Roberto Novoa	2006	63		12	Trevor Hoffman	1994	43
3	Robb Nen	1996	55		13	Renie Martin	1982	42
4	Jim Ray	1971	54		14	Stan Belinda	1993	42
5	Bill Simas	1998	54		15	Bob James	1985	42
6	Kevin Correia	2007	53		16	Shawn Hillegas	1991	41
7	Jim Duckworth	1965	47		17	Jorge Julio	2005	40
8	Jose Capellan	2007	45		18	Bobby Thigpen	1990	40
9	Bill Greif	1976	45		19	Ron Willis	1970	39
10	Bob Hall	1950	44		20	Jesus Colome	2004	39

Player Comments

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2007

Aardsma made four separate trips between Chicago and Des Moines last year, repeatedly being called up and sent back as other pitchers went on and off the DL. He kept an even keel throughout, a task simplified by his limited-though-potent repertoire--virtually all fastballs, reaching up to 97 MPH. Facing a crowded bullpen, the Cubs traded him to the White Sox for Neal Cotts; he`ll have a better chance of sticking on the South Side.

2006

Part of the package received from the Giants in the fit of pique that rid the Cubs of LaTroy Hawkins, Aardsma might not fit in. His control issues seem chronic and the organization is already crowded with pitching talent. Dusty`s not known for his patience, but maybe Hendry`s hoping that the Alphabet King can harness his mid-90s heat and become the next Joe Nathan.

2005

Didn't have the instant success that fellow fast-track college closer Chad Cordero had in Montreal, but Aardsma logged a fine season at Triple-A, fanning nearly a batter per inning and keeping the ball in the park. He posted similar numbers in the Arizona Fall League, though he looked wild for stretches. He's expected to win a bullpen job in '05, and he's got the arsenal for a high-leverage or closer job.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	WTN	2A	4	1	2	33	3	50.7	48	32	43	3	55%	.324	-23	1.58	3.91	6.37	5.48	10.0	6.7	4.9	1.0	0.6		0.9
2005	NRW	2A	6	2	0	9	8	46.0	44	13	30	2	51%	.300	-6	1.24	2.93	4.71	4.75	9.5	3.7	3.5	0.6	3.9		1.5
2006	IOW	3A	2	3	8	29	0	36.0	31	15	36	1	56%	.326	2	1.28	3.25	3.87	4.46	8.1	4.2	6.8	0.5	4.3		1.5
2006	CHN	MJ	3	0	0	45	0	53.0	41	28	49	9	38%	.239	4	1.30	4.08	3.82	3.54	6.8	4.1	7.6	1.4	11.0	1.3	1.5
2007	CHR	3A	3	2	15	28	0	35.3	26	11	45	7	32%	.241	2	1.05	4.33	5.38	5.56	7.7	3.2	8.5	2.6	0.2		1.1
2007	CHA	MJ	2	1	0	25	0	32.3	39	17	36	4	39%	.389	9	1.73	6.41	6.18	6.12	10.6	4.2	9.2	1.1	-2.1	0.0	0.3

Historical Stats