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Antonio Alfonseca
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 36
6' 5"
250 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2005 JUP 1C 0 0 0 3 1 3.0 3 0 4 1 50% .400 -37 1.00 3.00 13.91 6.75 13.5 0.0 6.8 6.8 -0.3 0.0
2005 FLO MJ 1 1 0 33 0 27.3 29 14 16 2 63% .342 -18 1.54 4.95 5.12 4.91 9.5 4.6 4.9 0.7 1.1 -0.1 0.5
2006 FRI 2A 0 0 0 1 0 1.0 0 0 0 0 67% .000 -17 0.00 0.00 0.73 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0
2006 OKL 3A 0 1 0 3 0 3.2 4 1 1 0 78% .444 -30 1.56 5.63 11.61 9.00 18.0 4.5 4.5 0.0 -0.8 -0.1
2006 TEX MJ 0 0 0 19 0 16.0 23 7 5 3 52% .345 -38 1.88 5.63 8.39 5.87 12.3 3.5 2.9 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1
2007 PHI MJ 5 2 8 61 0 49.7 65 27 24 3 53% .344 -21 1.85 5.43 5.61 5.36 11.1 4.1 4.1 0.5 1.6 -0.1 1.2


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 6:03 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 3 2 4 40 2 52.0 54 20 28 4 53% .290 -10 1.42 3.27 4.03 3.35 9.0 3.2 4.4 0.7 13.7 1.3 2.1
75o 3 2 2 37 1 46.0 52 20 24 4 53% .306 -15 1.56 4.18 4.74 4.29 9.8 3.6 4.3 0.8 7.2 0.7 1.3
60o 2 2 2 34 1 41.0 49 19 21 4 53% .320 -19 1.67 4.95 5.35 5.09 10.5 3.9 4.1 0.8 2.6 0.2 0.7
50o 2 2 1 34 0 37.7 48 19 19 4 53% .328 -22 1.75 5.45 5.76 5.62 11.0 4.1 4.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.4
40o 2 2 1 32 0 35.7 46 18 18 4 53% .334 -24 1.80 5.81 6.04 5.99 11.3 4.2 4.0 0.9 -1.5 -0.1 0.3
25o 1 2 1 27 0 30.0 42 17 14 4 53% .349 -29 1.94 6.79 6.80 7.01 12.2 4.6 3.9 1.0 -4.8 -0.4 -0.1
10o 1 1 0 15 0 17.0 27 11 8 2 52% .374 -39 2.21 9.30 8.23 9.73 13.8 5.3 3.6 1.2 -8.0 -0.6 -0.5
Weighted Mean 2 2 2 36 0 39.3 47 18 20 4 53% .317 -19 1.65 4.85 5.25 4.99 10.4 3.9 4.2 0.8 2.7 0.2 0.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

24%

43%

32%

35%

0.97

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 36) 2 2 2 36 0 39.3 47 18 20 4 53% .317 -19 1.65 4.85 5.25 4.99 10.4 3.9 4.2 0.8 2.7 0.2 0.6
2009 (age 37) 2 2 2 30 0 34.0 40 16 19 4 53% .310 -21 1.64 5.17 5.46 5.31 10.2 3.9 4.4 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.3
2010 (age 38) 2 2 2 35 0 39.7 46 16 22 5 53% .310 -18 1.57 5.03 5.16 5.18 10.1 3.4 4.4 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.2
2011 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --
2012 (age 40)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 41)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 42)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .296 .396 .456
vs RHB .278 .362 .414
Split +.018 +.034 +.042
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 0.6 $1,050,000 2.3 2.5
2009 0.3 $600,000 0.6 1.1
2010 0.2 $575,000 0.6 0.9
2011 0.1 $475,000 0.2 0.5
2012 0.1 $525,000 0.5 0.3
2013 0.0 $400,000 -0.2 0.0
2014 0.0 $400,000 0.0 0.0
Peak 1.5 $1,200,000 4.2 5.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 4.29 5.62 7.01 4.99
2009 4.55 5.48 7.01 5.31
2010 4.49 5.64 7.57 5.18
2011
-- out of baseball --
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 35% 0% 24%
2009 54% 35% 14%
2010 69% 59% 15%
2011 84% 77% 15%
2012 92% 88% 13%
2013 94% 91% 11%
2014 99% 95% 6%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

8

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Lee Guetterman 1995 44 11 Roger Craig 1966 24
2 Hugh Casey 1949 37 12 Charles Nagy 2003 24
3 Scott Erickson 2004 34 13 Bill Landrum 1993 23
4 Mike Myers 2005 33 14 Aaron Sele 2006 22
5 Fred Gladding 1972 32 15 Tanyon Sturtze 2006 21
6 Graeme Lloyd 2003 31 16 Giovanni Carrara 2004 21
7 Matt Herges 2006 29 17 Joe Gibbon 1971 21
8 Terry Clark 1997 27 18 Alan Levine 2004 20
9 Greg Minton 1987 26 19 Dave Weathers 2005 20
10 Rick White 2005 25 20 Darren Holmes 2002 20

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Antonio Alfonseca pitched just 50 professional innings over the past two seasons after his elbow busted on him. He`ll surface in the bigs again if only because he`s been there before.

2006

After a good season for the Braves in 2004, Alfonseca came crashing back to earth. A stress fracture in his elbow had something to do with that. A free agent at this writing, Alfonseca has never been decisively better than a league average pitcher, despite having one more finger. If healthy, he`s functional, but not someone for whom you pay a premium.

2005

The bane of Inigo Montoya quietly (mostly because he wasn't stamped with the closer's imprimatur) had the best season of his career in '04. Of course, that came on the heels of his worst season, which came on the heels of abject mediocrity. The Braves wisely cut bait on him, and the Marlins, in what's been a piteous attempt to assemble a bullpen by throwing money at guys they've merely heard of, were quick to keep him in clover. Atlanta will miss his quality innings, but history—Darren Holmes, Chris Hammond—suggests they'll turn up a suitable proxy.

2003

Ahhh, Pulpo, baseball’s 12-fingered menace. If you look at his ERA, Equivalent ERA, and Peripheral ERA columns, what stands out? That 2001 ERA, which after his 45-save 2000 made him seem like an asset to some people. He got predictable against lefties, missing with his slider and curve, and his fastball doesn’t have enough movement to fool everybody most of the time. He’s supposed to be in shape for the first time in two or three years, and mixed with Remlinger and Dave Veres, could be an asset as part of a closer-by-committee.

2002

There are 50 or 60 relief pitchers better than Alfonseca, whose perceived value is entirely a function of his usage pattern, which maximizes one particular statistic. He had back surgery in October, so he'll be watched carefilly this spring. Once he proves he's healthy, the Fish need to trade him for something of actual value.

2001

A decent reliever, Antonio Alfonseca poses as a closer, but when he enters the game, he doesn’t exactly slam the door. Rather, he turns on the porch light, chats for a while, occasionally coughs up a donation, and celebrates wildly when the solicitor leaves. Arbitration-eligible with the Rolaids Relief Award in tow, he will be seeking a ten-fold raise. It wouldn’t be the worst idea to deal Pulpo for some much-needed position-player prospects and have one of the Marlins' other power arms handle ninth-inning duties.

2000

Alfonseca has consistently posted a DT-ERA better than his peripherals would predict, thanks in part to his effectiveness with runners on: he allowed just a .568 OPS in those situations in 1999 and is 99 points of OPS better with runners on for his career. He’s not an overpowering pitcher, but does the things that keep runs off the board, controlling the running game and getting ground balls. There’s not much upside--except for roto-heads and their save category--but Alfonseca should contribute on this level for a while.

1999

The Six-Fingered Menace, “Pulpo” isn’t really a great prospect. He’s sort of been Leyland’s newfangled Vicente Palacios guy, doing anything he’s asked to do. That can be handy, and to Leyland’s credit he’s never been overly obsessive about roles for his relievers.

1998

After a rookie year in which he threw neither well nor often, he suddenly took center stage in the World Series, throwing 6 1/3 shutout innings as Leyland’s long reliever. I wouldn’t start labeling him another Mariano Rivera, though; he has indifferent stuff, and it’s unlikely he’ll ever be more than a middle reliever. As a ninth or 10th man his versatility makes him an asset to a pitching staff.

1997

As most of the western world knows by now, Alfonseca has six fingers on each hand; it’s more a curiosity than a boon at this point, though. He no longer figures into the Marlins’ plans after an uninspiring 1996, but if he ever makes the major leagues, I’m sure we’ll hear the comparisons between him and Three-Finger Brown.

1996

Alfonseca attracted attention from the moment he signed a pro contract, because he has six fingers on each hand. Don't think that means he'll be twice as good as Three-Finger Brown, but he's a legitimate prospect, and he's getting better.


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