<< PECOTA Home Player Search     

Danny Ardoin
Los Angeles Dodgers [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 34
6'
220 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card
ESPN Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 MOD A+ 30 4 2 0 0 0 2 8 0 0 -0.1 .077 .200 .154 -.982 .036 .100 .107 .000 -7.2 -0.5
2006 CSP AAA 19 2 2 0 0 2 2 5 0 0 -0.9 .267 .389 .400 -.332 .188 .316 .250 .214 -1.0 0.0
2006 COL MLB 120 12 5 1 0 2 8 27 0 0 -1.0 .193 .261 .257 -.439 .191 .258 .255 .174 -8.7 -0.3
2006 BAL MLB 15 2 0 0 0 1 1 6 0 0 0.1 .077 .200 .077 -.804 .077 .200 .077 .000 -2.4 0.0
2007 ROU AAA 199 17 10 0 1 7 21 48 1 0 0.0 .194 .301 .271 -.532 .154 .249 .206 .156 -20.6 -0.7
2007 MEM AAA 33 7 3 0 1 4 6 4 0 0 0.0 .296 .424 .519 .012 .250 .364 .429 .277 1.7 0.4
2008 LVG AAA 114 14 6 0 4 16 8 24 0 0 1.8 .303 .369 .485 -.323 .204 .265 .330 .209 -4.7 0.5 0.0
2008 LAN MLB 54 3 1 0 1 4 2 10 1 0 -0.6 .235 .278 .314 -.302 .235 .278 .314 .209 -1.1 0.2 -1.0


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 12:35 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 137 17 6 0 4 14 11 33 1 0 -0.4 .260 .330 .419 -.018 .265 .333 .439 .264 5.0 36-C 1 1.1
75o 127 13 5 0 3 12 10 32 1 0 -0.4 .231 .300 .362 -.170 .235 .303 .379 .236 0.1 34-C 1 0.6
60o 114 9 4 0 2 10 8 31 0 0 -0.3 .199 .268 .299 -.335 .202 .271 .313 .201 -4.3 31-C 1 0.2
50o 107 7 3 0 1 9 8 30 0 0 -0.3 .183 .252 .267 -.417 .186 .254 .280 .180 -6.1 30-C 1 0.0
40o 105 6 3 0 1 8 7 29 0 0 -0.3 .178 .247 .258 -.440 .181 .249 .271 .174 -6.5 29-C 2 0.0
25o 95 5 2 0 1 7 7 28 0 0 -0.2 .161 .229 .224 -.527 .163 .231 .235 .146 -7.9 27-C 2 -0.2
10o 51 1 1 0 0 2 3 18 0 0 -0.1 .109 .175 .123 -.785 .111 .177 .129 .022 -7.3 17-C 2 -0.2
Weighted Mean 102 8 3 0 2 9 7 27 0 0 -0.3 .202 .271 .304 -.330 .205 .273 .319 .203 -2.1 29-C 1 0.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

46%

50%

40%

60%

0.97

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 34) 102 8 3 0 2 9 7 27 0 0 -0.3 .202 .271 .304 -.330 .205 .273 .319 .203 -2.1 29-C 1 0.3
2010 (age 35) 93 7 4 0 2 10 7 25 0 0 -0.2 .212 .281 .325 -.283 .212 .279 .336 .215 -1.3 27-C 0 0.2
2011 (age 36)
-- out of baseball --
2012 (age 37)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 38)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 40)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .218 .288 .333
vs RHP .198 .265 .292
Split +.020 +.023 +.041
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -3.0 1.0 0.3 $575,000 -1.4 0.8
2010 -1.7 0.0 0.2 $550,000 -1.6 0.7
2011
-- out of baseball --
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --
Peak 0.6 $475,000 0.0 1.8


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .236 .180 .146 .203
2010 .235 .211 .110 .215
2011
-- out of baseball --
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 60% 0% 46%
2010 75% 36% 42%
2011 91% 68% 42%
2012 95% 80% 46%
2013 98% 86% 43%
2014 100% 99% 35%
2015 100% 100% 18%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

26

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Larry Cox 1982 51 11 Mickey Grasso 1955 32
2 Ron Tingley 1994 50 12 Randy Hundley 1977 29
3 Larry Haney 1977 47 13 Ed Sadowski 1966 29
4 Keith Osik 2003 38 14 Duffy Dyer 1980 27
5 Mike Difelice 2004 37 15 Steve Yeager 1983 27
6 Gary Bennett 2007 35 16 Danny Sheaffer 1996 24
7 Paul Bako 2007 35 17 Ray Murray 1952 24
8 Del Rice 1957 34 18 Bob Swift 1950 23
9 Joe Oliver 2000 33 19 Jeff Newman 1983 22
10 Tim Laker 2004 33 20 Lenny Webster 2000 20

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Ardoin`s been around practically forever; he made his first appearance in these pages in 1998, when we described him as, `a highly-touted defender` who `can`t hit.` That`s still true today. He hit over .500 last spring, which, combined with a Yorvit Torrealba injury, made him the Opening Day starter for the Rockies. That lasted as long as it takes to say `0 for his first 13.` A knee injury knocked him out and he was waived to make room for Chris Iannetta. Picked up by Baltimore, he improved to 1 for his first 13 as an Oriole before getting waived again. He`s signed with the Nationals.

2006

A career minor leaguer signed by the Rockies before the 2005 season, Ardoin took well to Colorado Springs, home of the Fountain of Offense, and earned a June call-up. He again proved that major league pitching is better than Triple-A pitching, but behind the plate he nailed just under 50% of all base stealers and posted excellent overall defensive numbers. Ardoin is the dictionary definition backup catcher, and with Yorvit Torrealba brought in to start, that`s the role he`ll be in.

2005

After not doing much during a long minor league career, Ardoin had a big season in Triple-A, the kind that makes you wonder if he'd be a better, cheaper, healthier alternative to the likes of Sandy Alomar. Having shown some ability to hit and draw walks, he might go all Junior Ortiz and have a seven-year MLB career if he gets a shot.


Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2009 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.