<< PECOTA Home Player Search     
');// -->

Garrett Atkins
Colorado Rockies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Third Base
Bats R
Age 28
6' 3"
215 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Rockies Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
3B 5 Garrett Atkins 90 634 .301 87 23 96 5 .374 .502 28.6
1   2008 Total 90 634 .301 87 23 96 5 .374 .502 28.6

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 CSP 3A 23 4 1 0 1 3 2 4 0 0 -0.4 .333 .391 .524 .202 .286 .348 .476 .279 1.3 0.1
2005 COL MJ 573 62 31 1 13 89 45 72 0 2 -0.1 .287 .347 .426 .034 .275 .337 .414 .261 13.4 133-3B -12 2.9
2006 COL MJ 695 117 48 1 29 120 79 76 4 0 -0.1 .329 .409 .556 .328 .313 .396 .528 .314 62.7 155-3B -15 7.0
2007 COL MJ 684 83 35 1 25 111 67 96 3 1 -1.8 .301 .367 .486 .143 .290 .361 .477 .288 34.8 146-3B -16 5.0


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 5:56 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 663 111 40 2 32 114 75 84 8 2 -1.3 .327 .405 .568 .327 .301 .382 .530 .308 52.6 155-3B -10 6.8
75o 636 98 37 2 28 105 69 82 7 2 -1.2 .316 .393 .541 .259 .291 .370 .504 .297 41.3 148-3B -9 5.8
60o 609 86 35 1 24 96 63 79 6 2 -1.1 .306 .380 .514 .194 .282 .358 .480 .286 31.0 142-3B -9 4.8
50o 594 80 34 1 23 91 60 78 5 2 -1.1 .301 .373 .500 .159 .277 .351 .466 .280 25.8 139-3B -9 4.3
40o 576 73 32 1 20 85 56 76 5 2 -1.0 .294 .365 .483 .116 .271 .343 .450 .273 19.7 135-3B -9 3.8
25o 552 65 31 1 18 79 51 74 4 2 -1.0 .286 .354 .461 .063 .263 .334 .430 .263 12.7 130-3B -9 3.1
10o 517 53 28 1 14 68 45 70 3 2 -0.9 .274 .339 .430 -.016 .252 .319 .401 .248 3.1 122-3B -8 2.1
Weighted Mean 647 91 37 1 25 100 65 85 6 2 -1.1 .301 .374 .502 .164 .278 .352 .468 .280 29.9 151-3B -9 4.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

5%

31%

30%

6%

0.82

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 28) 647 91 37 1 25 100 65 85 6 2 -1.1 .301 .374 .502 .164 .278 .352 .468 .280 29.9 151-3B -9 4.3
2009 (age 29) 646 92 36 2 26 103 65 85 6 2 -1.0 .303 .375 .509 .176 .275 .348 .466 .282 26.6 151-3B -10 4.2
2010 (age 30) 567 74 33 2 21 88 59 73 4 2 -1.0 .300 .375 .500 .161 .273 .347 .458 .279 22.5 133-3B -9 3.7
2011 (age 31) 593 77 34 1 20 88 60 78 5 2 -0.9 .295 .369 .482 .123 .268 .342 .441 .273 16.9 139-3B -11 3.0
2012 (age 32) 555 70 31 1 20 84 57 75 4 2 -0.8 .295 .369 .487 .131 .268 .342 .447 .274 14.7 130-3B -13 2.4
2013 (age 33) 548 67 30 2 19 83 59 74 3 2 -0.7 .291 .367 .479 .113 .264 .341 .439 .271 11.0 129-3B -14 1.8
2014 (age 34) 510 60 26 1 17 76 57 67 3 1 -0.6 .289 .370 .470 .103 .262 .343 .430 .271 8.6 120-3B -11 1.7

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .314 .391 .521
vs RHP .296 .364 .484
Split +.018 +.027 +.037
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 2.9 1.4 4.3 $8,900,000 17.7 18.0
2009 3.0 1.2 4.2 $8,850,000 14.3 14.2
2010 2.6 1.1 3.7 $7,675,000 10.9 11.0
2011 2.1 0.9 3.0 $5,775,000 5.6 6.2
2012 1.8 0.6 2.4 $4,550,000 3.5 5.8
2013 1.4 0.4 1.8 $3,100,000 1.0 3.5
2014 1.1 0.5 1.7 $3,025,000 1.3 2.4
Peak 19.4 $31,625,000 53.0 58.8


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .297 .280 .263 .280
2009 .298 .284 .270 .282
2010 .300 .280 .261 .279
2011 .290 .280 .256 .273
2012 .293 .277 .252 .274
2013 .295 .274 .245 .271
2014 .283 .268 .249 .271


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 6% 0% 5%
2009 12% 4% 10%
2010 17% 5% 7%
2011 22% 11% 4%
2012 38% 18% 5%
2013 47% 29% 2%
2014 59% 37% 4%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

After launching his big league career with younger, more heralded prospects looming behind him, Atkins made a name for himself with a mammoth 2006 campaign in which he ranked second in VORP among major league third basemen behind Miguel Cabrera. Atkins was steady from start to finish in 2006, even hitting .313/.402/.531 on the road, a marked improvement from 2005. He still plays defense like a converted first baseman, but between Ian Stewart`s struggles and his own breakthrough at the plate, Atkins should be the Rockies third baseman for the foreseeable future.

2006

For the rest of this chapter, let`s just assume that everyone hit significantly better at home than on the road. That will save everyone a lot of time and the printer a lot of ink if we don`t have to keep saying things like `Atkins looked okay, but only managed .238/.301/.347 on the road.` They all do that. It`s not their fault, it`s just in their nature, like snakes. A snake found on the road will bite. A Rockie found on the road will bite too, just not in the same way. Atkins missed most of April with a hamstring injury, but the Rockies kept the hot corner warm for him and he got the rest of the year to prove what we already knew: he`s a defensive liability and nothing special with the bat. There are plenty of alternatives behind him, and Atkins hasn`t shown any knack for another position.

2005

He's 25, he's inexpensive, and he'll rightfully start the season as the primary third baseman in Denver. Atkins' defense is acceptable at third, and he'll hit. He's not a Grade-A prospect, but he's going to put up some pretty reasonable numbers and potentially provide one of the building blocks for the next good Rockies team. Think of a slightly better version of Joe Randa, with more offense and less defense, and you won't be far off.


Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2008 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.