John Baker

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time
Marlins Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)

Pos Order Name PT% PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP

C 8 John Baker 55 122 .256 17 3 14 0 .335 .403 2.7

1 2009 Total 55 122 .256 17 3 14 0 .335 .403 2.7

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 8:19 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	323	50	19	1	9	35	37	73	3	1	0.0	.287	.376	.459	.128	.290	.377	.477	.294	22.6	78-C -3	3.0
75^o	298	39	16	1	7	30	32	69	2	1	0.0	.265	.351	.414	.008	.269	.352	.430	.272	12.5	73-C -3	2.0
60^o	285	34	14	1	6	28	30	66	2	1	0.0	.254	.338	.390	-.055	.257	.339	.406	.260	7.7	70-C -3	1.5
50^o	271	29	13	1	5	25	27	64	2	1	0.0	.243	.325	.366	-.120	.246	.325	.381	.247	3.2	66-C -3	1.1
40^o	259	25	12	1	4	23	25	62	1	1	0.0	.234	.314	.347	-.172	.237	.314	.361	.237	0.0	64-C -2	0.7
25^o	230	18	9	1	2	18	21	56	1	1	0.0	.213	.289	.305	-.287	.216	.289	.317	.211	-6.3	57-C -2	0.1
10^o	188	11	7	1	1	13	15	47	0	1	0.0	.188	.257	.252	-.431	.191	.257	.262	.172	-11.5	48-C -2	-0.6
Weighted Mean	276	31	13	1	5	26	28	65	2	1	0.0	.247	.330	.375	-.107	.250	.330	.390	.251	6.6	68-C -2	1.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
37%	52%	30%	42%	1.15

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 28)	276	31	13	1	5	26	28	65	2	1	0.0	.247	.330	.375	-.107	.250	.330	.390	.251	6.6	68-C -2	1.2
2010 (age 29)	293	34	14	1	5	29	30	66	2	1	0.0	.248	.331	.374	-.113	.247	.327	.384	.251	4.3	71-C -2	1.2
2011 (age 30)	274	31	14	1	5	28	29	63	2	0	0.1	.250	.334	.376	-.102	.249	.330	.386	.254	4.1	67-C -2	1.1
2012 (age 31)	256	27	13	1	5	25	27	58	2	0	0.1	.245	.329	.373	-.119	.245	.325	.383	.251	2.9	63-C -4	0.7
2013 (age 32)	233	24	11	1	5	22	25	51	1	0	0.1	.244	.328	.372	-.122	.244	.325	.382	.250	2.2	58-C -3	0.6
2014 (age 33)	246	26	11	1	4	22	28	51	2	0	0.1	.248	.339	.359	-.118	.248	.335	.369	.252	2.0	61-C -4	0.5
2015 (age 34)	197	19	8	1	4	19	23	43	1	0	0.1	.241	.333	.362	-.128	.241	.329	.372	.251	1.5	50-C -4	0.4

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.219	.302	.318
vs RHP	.256	.344	.416
Split	-.037	-.042	-.098
LgAvg	-.035	-.040	-.079

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	4.2	-2.0	1.2	$1,650,000	4.0	8.4
2010	4.7	-2.0	1.2	$1,650,000	2.6	5.7
2011	5.0	-2.0	1.1	$1,600,000	2.3	5.4
2012	3.9	-4.0	0.7	$1,225,000	0.0	2.7
2013	3.3	-3.0	0.6	$1,250,000	0.5	2.7
2014	4.1	-4.0	0.5	$1,250,000	0.6	2.4
2015	3.1	-4.0	0.4	$1,150,000	-0.2	2.6
Peak			5.4	$4,900,000	10.0	27.3

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.272	.247	.211	.251
2010	.275	.253	.226	.251
2011	.272	.242	.221	.254
2012	.268	.247	.217	.251
2013	.275	.256	.218	.250
2014	.271	.251	.220	.252
2015	.268	.239	.204	.251

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	42%	0%	37%
2010	53%	16%	33%
2011	53%	27%	27%
2012	61%	37%	21%
2013	73%	44%	25%
2014	76%	54%	19%
2015	83%	60%	16%

54

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Sandy Martinez	1999	59		11	Scott Hatteberg	1998	38
2	Paul Bako	2000	52		12	Johnny Oates	1974	38
3	Dutch Dotterer	1960	47		13	Yorvit Torrealba	2006	37
4	Ed Ott	1979	46		14	Jeff Reed	1991	36
5	Larry Howard	1973	44		15	Chad Moeller	2003	36
6	Brian Schneider	2005	42		16	Bob Montgomery	1972	35
7	Brad Ausmus	1997	39		17	Jerry May	1972	35
8	Bill Glynn	1954	39		18	Jake Gibbs	1967	35
9	Joe Garagiola	1954	38		19	Raul Casanova	2001	34
10	Mike Brumley	1966	38		20	Tyler Houston	1999	34

Player Comments

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2005

Oakland has a good group of catchers in the organization, but it remains to be seen if any of them have much star power. Baker and Brown are already in the upper levels, they had two interesting guys at full-season A-ball in John Suomi and David Castillo, and they picked two more in '04, Kurt Suzuki and Landon Powell. All of them could turn into serviceable backups, but it's most likely the last pair who might be something more.

Meanwhile, Baker and Brown have a Kendall-sized problem in front of them. Baker helped himself last year when, in having to rehab his shoulder after '03, he started taking his overall conditioning more seriously. He gets good marks within the organization for his catching skills, and backup backstops who can hit and hit lefty tend to be in demand.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	SAC	AAA	340	49	19	1	4	38	40	77	6	0	4.6	.273	.361	.386	-.192	.237	.316	.343	.237	-6.9	75-C -7	0.0
2007	ABQ	AAA	303	35	15	0	8	41	28	58	2	0	0.0	.285	.360	.430	-.297	.208	.281	.325	.214	-15.6	70-C -5	-0.9
2008	ABQ	AAA	221	35	14	1	6	31	24	34	1	2	0.9	.321	.398	.497	-.246	.217	.293	.343	.223	-7.9	48-C 1	0.1
2008	FLO	MLB	233	32	14	0	5	32	30	48	0	0	0.8	.299	.392	.447	.153	.305	.397	.462	.301	17.5	56-C -5	1.6

Projected Playing Time

Historical Stats