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Paul Bako
Chicago Cubs [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats L
Age 37
6' 2"
205 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Phillies Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 8 Paul Bako 35 77 .189 6 1 6 0 .257 .256 -3.4
1   2009 Total 35 77 .189 6 1 6 0 .257 .256 -3.4

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 WIC AA 12 3 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0.1 .167 .167 .167 -1.041 .083 .083 .083 .000 -3.2 -0.2
2006 KCA MLB 167 7 3 0 0 10 11 46 0 0 -1.5 .209 .261 .229 -.468 .204 .261 .224 .166 -13.7 45-C 0 -0.8
2007 BAL MLB 174 13 3 1 1 8 15 50 0 1 -0.8 .205 .277 .256 -.380 .206 .283 .258 .191 -9.4 47-C -2 -0.8
2008 CIN MLB 338 30 11 2 6 35 34 90 0 2 -1.0 .217 .299 .328 -.258 .213 .297 .330 .220 -6.9 87-C -4 -0.5


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 1:15 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 234 37 12 1 5 26 25 52 0 2 -1.2 .296 .373 .439 .067 .293 .369 .439 .278 12.6 58-C -2 1.7
75o 204 24 9 1 3 21 21 48 0 1 -1.0 .255 .333 .368 -.125 .252 .330 .368 .243 2.0 51-C -2 0.6
60o 194 20 8 1 3 19 19 46 0 1 -0.9 .243 .321 .347 -.182 .240 .318 .347 .231 -0.7 49-C -3 0.3
50o 186 18 7 1 3 18 18 45 0 1 -0.9 .232 .310 .329 -.230 .230 .307 .329 .222 -2.7 47-C -3 0.1
40o 181 16 6 1 2 17 17 44 0 1 -0.8 .226 .304 .319 -.258 .224 .301 .319 .215 -3.8 46-C -3 0.0
25o 141 9 4 0 1 11 13 36 0 0 -0.6 .186 .264 .249 -.442 .184 .262 .249 .169 -8.9 37-C -3 -0.7
10o 31 1 0 0 0 1 2 9 0 0 -0.1 .116 .194 .130 -.751 .115 .192 .130 .026 -4.1 13-C -2 -0.4
Weighted Mean 153 14 6 1 2 14 15 36 0 1 -0.8 .240 .318 .342 -.174 .237 .315 .342 .227 1.1 40-C -2 0.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

51%

65%

30%

57%

1.18

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 37) 153 14 6 1 2 14 15 36 0 1 -0.8 .240 .318 .342 -.174 .237 .315 .342 .227 1.1 40-C -2 0.3
2010 (age 38) 160 14 7 1 2 14 15 41 0 0 -0.4 .230 .307 .325 -.259 .224 .299 .321 .218 -1.4 42-C -3 0.0
2011 (age 39) 87 5 3 0 1 9 9 21 0 0 -0.1 .212 .294 .304 -.319 .207 .287 .300 .207 -1.0 25-C -1 0.0
2012 (age 40)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 41)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 42)
-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 43)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .210 .283 .293
vs RHP .250 .336 .371
Split -.040 -.053 -.077
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -1.0 -2.0 0.3 $550,000 -2.4 2.3
2010 -2.5 -3.0 0.0 $400,000 -3.6 0.1
2011 -2.2 -1.0 0.0 $400,000 -1.6 0.2
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --
Peak 0.2 $325,000 0.1 2.7


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .243 .222 .169 .227
2010 .248 .229 .188 .218
2011 .242 .211 .066 .207
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 57% 0% 51%
2010 76% 43% 47%
2011 92% 66% 30%
2012 99% 89% 23%
2013 99% 97% 13%
2014 99% 98% 8%
2015 100% 98% 4%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

12

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Jim Sundberg 1988 35 11 Keith Osik 2005 26
2 Ron Hassey 1990 32 12 John Mabry 2007 26
3 Tom Prince 2001 32 13 Jerry McNertney 1973 26
4 Del Rice 1959 32 14 Jim Hegan 1957 26
5 Greg Myers 2003 30 15 Bill Haselman 2003 26
6 Tony Pena 1994 28 16 Clyde McCullough 1954 26
7 Tim Laker 2006 28 17 Jose Hernandez 2006 25
8 Joe Girardi 2001 27 18 Brad Ausmus 2006 23
9 Damian Miller 2006 27 19 Kurt Bevacqua 1984 22
10 Jamie Quirk 1991 26 20 Mike Difelice 2006 22

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

Bako was the primary backup to Ramon Hernandez last year. He and the Orioles' other reserve backstops-Alberto Castillo, Gus Molina, and J.R. House-combined to hit .201/.267/.308 in 2007, turning the catcher spot into the Springfield Mystery Spot whenever Hernandez was unavailable, which turned out to be more than a third of the season altogether. The Orioles have bought into the idea that their backup catcher must be a strong defender and guide the young pitchers. The results have been so spectacular, haven't they?

2007

A message to all you parents out there: if your son dreams of one day joining the International Brotherhood of Backup Catchers--hey, it`s easier to join than the Priory of Sion--get him working on his left-handed swing. Bako has hit under .230 in five of the last seven years, he`s hit one homer in the last four, yet he keeps finding teams interested in a left-handed stick to complement their right-handed starter. The latest is the Orioles, who are paying him $900,000 to impersonate a minimum-wage backup.

2006

A good-field/no-hit catcher whose defensive abilities are somewhat overstated, Bako tore his ACL in a rundown in June, shelving him for the season. The injury wasn`t a total loss, as it forced the team to take a long look at Navarro, with happy results. Despite being 34 and coming off of knee surgery, the Royals have signed him to provide the veteran gravitas John Buck lacks. We imagine something like Edwin Newman in a mask.

2005

Gabor is coasting on his defensive reputation, but over the course of his career, he's caught just under 31% of attempted basestealers, a figure no better than pedestrian. Reputedly he works well with pitchers and helps old ladies cross the street and all that, but there's nothing separating him from 10 or 15 catchers in the International League. None of this is meant to be an endorsement of Henry Blanco, who was brought in to be Bako's replacement, but at least Blanco does his job as advertised.

2003

Bako is what he is: an adequate backup who bats lefty for spice. Acquired by the Cubs in their ingenious plot to acquire every solid backup catcher, except that they’re already running out of roster room to bring the scheme to fruition. If they don’t add anybody else, he should be Damian Miller’s caddy.

2002

“Bits” is your basic good backup to a slugging right-handed-hitting catcher with a few defensive limitations. In other words, he's a great guy to have when Javy Lopez is your regular starter. Lopez's return to Atlanta should guarantee another year of employment for Bako, catching Greg Maddux every fifth game.

2001

The season-ending injury to Eddie Perez left the Braves with only Fernando Lunar behind Javy Lopez, so claiming Paul Bako off waivers was a good idea. Bako, a left-handed, low-power, average defensive backstop, is a near-perfect complement to Lopez. He'll be around for a while and have a lot of years like 1998.

2000

A curious addition to the Brad Ausmus trade, Bako’s value was no mystery after Mitch Meluskey went out for the season in late April. A .260 hitter who can work the count a little and throw out 35% of attempted base-stealers can make a useful player: just look at Tony Eusebio. When you can do that and bat left-handed like Bako, you can stay in the majors for 10 years. Now that Eusebio has been re-signed, Bako may be the odd man out in Houston.

1999

He's been touted as one of the bright spots to the season, but he's no long-term answer. His dexterity behind the plate doesn't compensate for a weak stick, and he turns 27 in June. If he's able to recapture the ability to draw walks he showed in 1994-95, he could stick in a platoon role, and left-handed hitters are valuable behind the plate. But Rob Fick, also a lefty, has grabbed on to his collar and is ready to pull.

1998

Bako’s a good defensive catcher who had shown improvement in his hitting. He’s qualified to be a major league backup right now, and could play about even with Joe Oliver as Eddie Taubensee’s backup. Traded to Detroit, where the competition isn’t as stiff. I think he’ll be above average for the position in 1998.

1997

Naturally, the second Bako started hitting, his defensive reputation started to slip. A good hitter who will get better, and I think he’s fine behind the plate. The Reds probably have more depth at catcher and shortstop than any other organization. They’ve also got the most Marge Schott. Bako will start the year in Indianapolis and likely will stay there until September.


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