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Josh Bard
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats B
Age 31
6' 3"
210 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Nationals Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 8 Josh Bard 50 111 .237 8 1 11 0 .317 .336 -0.7
1   2009 Total 50 111 .237 8 1 11 0 .317 .336 -0.7

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 SDN MLB 263 28 19 0 9 40 27 39 1 0 -0.5 .338 .406 .537 .358 .351 .420 .554 .329 29.1 55-C 2 3.3
2006 BOS MLB 21 2 1 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 -0.2 .278 .381 .333 -.250 .222 .333 .278 .224 0.4 6-C -3 -0.3
2007 SDN MLB 443 42 27 2 5 51 50 58 0 1 -4.2 .285 .364 .404 .061 .295 .378 .422 .281 24.4 102-C -8 2.0
2008 LEL A+ 11 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0.0 .111 .273 .111 -.812 .100 .182 .100 .000 -2.1 -0.2
2008 POR AAA 17 2 0 0 1 1 2 3 0 0 0.1 .133 .235 .333 -.411 .133 .235 .333 .194 -1.4 0.0
2008 SDN MLB 198 11 9 0 1 16 18 25 0 0 -0.3 .202 .279 .270 -.368 .202 .279 .275 .195 -7.5 46-C -6 -1.2


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 12:57 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 334 52 23 1 7 41 35 45 1 0 -1.8 .298 .376 .458 .096 .290 .370 .463 .290 20.8 81-C -4 2.8
75o 300 39 19 1 5 35 30 40 0 0 -1.5 .281 .355 .419 -.004 .273 .349 .423 .271 11.7 73-C -4 1.8
60o 268 29 16 0 4 29 25 36 0 0 -1.3 .265 .336 .385 -.092 .258 .331 .389 .254 5.1 66-C -4 1.1
50o 259 27 15 0 3 28 24 35 0 0 -1.3 .261 .331 .376 -.116 .254 .326 .379 .249 3.4 64-C -4 0.9
40o 244 23 14 0 3 25 21 33 0 0 -1.2 .254 .323 .360 -.157 .247 .317 .364 .241 0.9 60-C -4 0.6
25o 215 17 12 0 2 21 18 29 0 0 -1.0 .241 .307 .332 -.229 .235 .302 .335 .225 -2.8 54-C -4 0.2
10o 165 9 8 0 1 14 12 22 0 0 -0.7 .222 .283 .289 -.342 .215 .278 .291 .198 -6.4 43-C -3 -0.4
Weighted Mean 245 25 15 0 4 26 23 33 0 0 -1.2 .265 .337 .386 -.058 .258 .331 .389 .253 4.9 61-C -3 1.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

18%

34%

37%

26%

0.79

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 31) 245 25 15 0 4 26 23 33 0 0 -1.2 .265 .337 .386 -.058 .258 .331 .389 .253 4.9 61-C -3 1.0
2010 (age 32) 231 23 13 0 3 26 23 31 0 0 -1.0 .263 .338 .380 -.082 .259 .337 .388 .253 3.6 57-C -3 0.9
2011 (age 33) 252 26 14 0 3 26 25 34 0 0 -0.9 .264 .339 .373 -.088 .260 .338 .381 .251 3.1 62-C -4 0.7
2012 (age 34) 180 15 9 0 2 19 18 25 0 0 -0.6 .261 .337 .366 -.104 .257 .335 .374 .249 1.8 46-C -3 0.4
2013 (age 35) 293 32 16 0 4 31 28 43 0 0 -0.5 .259 .332 .366 -.114 .255 .331 .374 .246 1.2 71-C -5 0.4
2014 (age 36) 309 36 17 0 4 32 34 45 0 0 -0.4 .258 .342 .366 -.096 .254 .341 .373 .251 1.4 75-C -4 0.3
2015 (age 37) 277 31 15 0 3 28 30 37 0 0 -0.3 .265 .348 .372 -.073 .260 .347 .380 .256 1.4 68-C -6 0.2

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .274 .336 .407
vs RHP .263 .337 .373
Split +.011 -.002 +.035
LgAvg +.004 -.004 +.007

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 4.7 -3.0 1.0 $1,275,000 1.3 5.4
2010 4.2 -3.0 0.9 $1,250,000 1.3 4.7
2011 4.2 -4.0 0.7 $1,100,000 0.1 2.7
2012 2.5 -3.0 0.4 $900,000 -0.8 1.7
2013 3.5 -5.0 0.4 $925,000 -0.6 1.7
2014 5.2 -4.0 0.3 $975,000 0.1 1.2
2015 5.9 -6.0 0.2 $875,000 -0.2 0.9
Peak 3.7 $3,100,000 1.5 17.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .271 .249 .225 .253
2010 .274 .250 .212 .253
2011 .277 .250 .225 .251
2012 .269 .242 .220 .249
2013 .273 .235 .216 .246
2014 .266 .243 .224 .251
2015 .269 .243 .227 .256


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 26% 0% 18%
2010 47% 15% 15%
2011 46% 18% 16%
2012 68% 35% 11%
2013 69% 49% 10%
2014 73% 64% 11%
2015 80% 72% 10%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

48

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Chad Kreuter 1995 50 11 Greg Olson 1991 37
2 Jason Varitek 2003 48 12 Bob Stinson 1977 35
3 Alan Ashby 1982 46 13 Joe Azcue 1970 35
4 Brent Mayne 1999 46 14 J.C. Martin 1968 34
5 Ron Hassey 1984 42 15 Fran Healy 1977 34
6 Tony Eusebio 1998 40 16 George Williams 2000 33
7 Chris Bando 1987 39 17 Andy Etchebarren 1974 32
8 Brian Schneider 2008 39 18 Les Moss 1956 30
9 Bill Fahey 1981 38 19 Rick Sweet 1983 30
10 Joe Nolan 1982 38 20 Jeff Reed 1994 30

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

The power Bard showed in 2006 was a fluke. Everything else is a skill, making him a very valuable property-a switch-hitting catcher with real on-base skills. That he started 33 games in the middle of the order last year is a reflection of the Padres' problems assembling a lineup, not an endorsement of his bat. That he allowed 121 stolen bases in 108 games (7.6 percent caught stealing) is not an endorsement of his arm, but there's some evidence that Pads pitchers share the blame, especially Chris Young, on whom basestealers went a perfect 44-0 in their attempts last year. Bard threw out 33.6 percent of thieves in his career prior joining the Padres.

2007

After Bard took to being knuckleballer Tim Wakefield`s personal catcher like a duck takes to being repeatedly poked with a fork, the Red Sox panicked and flipped him to San Diego for his predecessor, Doug Mirabelli. They never could have anticipated he`d hit like he did in San Diego, just as there`s no reason for the Padres to expect him to do it again. Still, Bard`s a true switch-hitter, solid against both righties and lefties, and PECOTA expects him to maintain his new-found plate discipline, so he`ll still be one of the better players at his position. Although properly considered the better-throwing alternative to Mike Piazza on last year`s Pads, Bard didn`t surpass him by much. Throwing out only 18 percent of opposing baserunners isn`t very special, but, in Bard`s defense, he`s done better before; perhaps Pads pitchers need to work on holding runners as much as their catchers need to work on throwing.

2006

Appropriately enough, nobody is claiming to be the author of this Bard`s work. A backup catcher straight out of central casting, Bard has a better defensive rep than Victor Martinez, but hasn`t shown any ability to hit from either side of the plate. His value in a trade as a plausible starting catcher for somebody else has just about been used up.

2005

Muscled out of the way by an emergent Victor Martinez, Bard spent the year in Buffalo as a replacement-level catcher. With a sunny personality, strong defensive reputation, and .310 major league OBP, Bard could be a backup forever.

2003

I don’t know about you, but I’m going to name my first kid “Josh” and teach him to be a backup catcher like Josh Paul and Josh Bard. Key drills will include smiling and “aw, shucks” interviews, playing baseball like it was meant to be played, calling a good game, being white, and hiring a good agent. I’ll be retiring to Phoenix in about twenty years. So long, suckers!

Josh Bard’s game-winning heroics during his call-up may lead the Indians to do something really stupid, like trade Victor Martinez or otherwise hold up Victor’s development. In the short term, though, Bard will be the Indians’ starting catcher next year unless he’s awful in spring training, while Martinez starts throwing out baserunners.

2002

Part of the booty acquired from the Rockies for Jacob Cruz, Bard is primarily noted as a defensive catcher with a good arm. He has hit for a reasonable average and has shown some doubles power while maintaining decent strikeout-to-walk ratios. Unlike most of the prospects we highlight, Bard isn't a high-upside guy. As a switch-hitter who can throw, though, he's going to make the majors, and he is going to be around for a while.


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