Daniel Barone

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Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	JCY	0R	0	0	0	1	0	1.0	1	0	1	1	33%	.000	-216	1.00	9.00	24.06	27.00	27.0	0.0	0.0	27.0	-1.7		-0.1
2005	JAM	1A	2	0	2	9	0	19.7	14	4	17	1	49%	.245	-21	0.91	0.46	5.24	2.65	7.9	4.2	3.2	1.6	5.6		1.0
2005	GRB	1B	2	2	1	12	6	39.3	35	10	29	4	38%	.272	-29	1.15	4.12	6.71	6.82	10.0	4.5	3.1	2.1	-4.6		0.0
2006	GRB	1B	4	0	0	9	6	49.1	36	9	60	1	41%	.292	13	0.92	2.38	4.62	4.91	8.8	3.3	6.3	0.6	3.4		0.9
2006	JUP	1C	3	5	0	17	8	73.0	84	18	57	9	48%	.333	-27	1.40	4.32	9.71	8.91	13.0	3.7	4.0	2.5	-24.2		-1.6
2006	CAR	2A	1	0	0	3	2	20.2	13	6	13	1	41%	.211	3	0.94	1.78	3.24	2.84	6.2	3.3	3.8	0.9	5.8		0.6
2007	CAR	2A	1	3	0	13	13	74.7	68	18	60	7	46%	.290	2	1.15	3.86	5.10	5.14	9.5	2.6	4.8	1.4	3.6		1.0
2007	ABQ	3A	7	0	0	10	10	61.7	60	14	31	6	46%	.274	0	1.20	4.08	3.94	4.18	8.4	2.2	3.3	0.9	9.5		1.8
2007	FLO	MJ	1	3	0	16	6	41.0	50	19	18	11	41%	.295	-24	1.68	5.71	7.37	5.75	9.7	3.5	3.8	2.2	-2.8	0.3	0.4

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 6:22 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	9	9	1	50	22	151.3	157	55	92	18	43%	.287	-3	1.40	4.11	4.81	4.19	9.3	2.9	4.7	1.0	23.4	3.1	4.2
75^o	7	9	1	49	21	141.0	155	53	85	20	43%	.294	-7	1.47	4.79	5.34	4.91	9.8	3.0	4.6	1.2	10.0	1.7	2.8
60^o	6	9	1	48	20	132.3	151	52	79	21	43%	.300	-10	1.53	5.37	5.79	5.52	10.2	3.1	4.6	1.4	0.0	0.7	1.7
50^o	6	9	1	47	19	128.0	150	51	75	21	43%	.303	-11	1.56	5.68	6.02	5.85	10.4	3.2	4.5	1.5	-4.7	0.2	1.2
40^o	5	9	1	46	19	123.3	147	50	72	22	43%	.306	-13	1.60	6.01	6.28	6.19	10.6	3.2	4.5	1.6	-9.5	-0.2	0.7
25^o	5	9	0	45	18	114.0	143	47	66	23	44%	.313	-17	1.66	6.66	6.78	6.88	11.1	3.3	4.5	1.7	-17.8	-1.1	-0.2
10^o	3	8	0	40	15	96.3	130	42	55	23	44%	.324	-23	1.79	8.01	7.76	8.28	12.0	3.5	4.4	2.1	-30.7	-2.4	-1.7
Weighted Mean	6	10	1	50	20	133.7	154	53	79	22	43%	.301	-11	1.54	5.52	5.87	5.69	10.3	3.1	4.6	1.4	-2.3	0.5	1.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
14%	41%	24%	13%	1.15

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 25)	6	10	1	50	20	133.7	154	53	79	22	43%	.301	-11	1.54	5.52	5.87	5.69	10.3	3.1	4.6	1.4	-2.3	0.5	1.2
2009 (age 26)	5	8	1	46	15	108.3	130	42	62	19	43%	.307	-15	1.58	5.78	6.16	5.94	10.7	3.1	4.4	1.5	-4.5	0.0	0.6
2010 (age 27)	4	7	1	45	12	96.0	115	37	55	18	42%	.303	-16	1.57	5.93	6.23	6.09	10.6	3.0	4.4	1.6	-4.6	-0.2	0.3
2011 (age 28)	3	5	1	39	9	78.0	94	29	45	12	43%	.312	-15	1.57	5.68	6.06	5.84	10.8	2.9	4.4	1.4	-1.8	0.0	0.4
2012 (age 29)	4	5	1	41	9	82.7	97	31	47	13	43%	.303	-15	1.54	5.54	5.82	5.71	10.4	3.0	4.3	1.4	-1.0	0.1	0.4
2013 (age 30)	4	5	1	45	7	83.3	96	30	48	13	43%	.300	-14	1.51	5.28	5.70	5.42	10.3	2.8	4.4	1.4	0.5	0.3	0.5
2014 (age 31)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.279	.374	.454
vs RHB	.272	.344	.448
Split	+.007	+.031	+.007
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	1.2	$1,225,000	-2.2	4.2
2009	0.6	$725,000	-4.5	2.5
2010	0.3	$525,000	-4.7	1.1
2011	0.4	$575,000	-1.8	1.7
2012	0.4	$625,000	-1.0	2.8
2013	0.5	$850,000	0.6	1.6
2014	0.6	$1,300,000	2.0	1.8
Peak	3.3	$1,875,000	2.6	13.9

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	4.91	5.85	6.88	5.69
2009	4.84	6.07	7.03	5.94
2010	5.00	6.09	7.52	6.09
2011	4.71	5.68	7.35	5.84
2012	4.63	5.83	7.99	5.71
2013	4.77	5.63	7.46	5.42
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	13%	0%	14%
2009	30%	14%	14%
2010	48%	28%	11%
2011	66%	47%	8%
2012	71%	54%	10%
2013	75%	64%	10%
2014	85%	67%	9%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

72

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Jeff Karstens	2007	70		11	Chris Baker	2002	62
2	Trey Hodges	2003	69		12	Paul Anderson	1994	61
3	Brandon Knight	2000	67		13	Virgil Vasquez	2007	61
4	Greg Perschke	1992	67		14	Brett Jodie	2002	61
5	David Hutcheson	1996	64		15	Mike Esposito	2006	60
6	Ryan Franklin	1998	63		16	Travis Harper	2001	60
7	Keith Morrison	1995	63		17	Michael Laplante	1995	60
8	Gary Wilson	1995	62		18	Calvin Maduro	1999	58
9	Brian Conroy	1993	62		19	Tim Brown	1993	58
10	Pep Harris	1997	62		20	Robert Toth	1997	57

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