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Michael Barrett
San Diego Padres [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 31
6' 3"
210 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Padres Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 8 Michael Barrett 30 189 .248 17 4 21 1 .306 .381 4.5
1   2008 Total 30 189 .248 17 4 21 1 .306 .381 4.5

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 CHN MJ 477 48 32 3 16 61 40 61 0 3 0.7 .276 .345 .479 .120 .269 .340 .479 .276 28.3 115-C -9 4.0
2006 CHN MJ 418 54 25 3 16 53 33 41 0 1 -2.3 .307 .368 .517 .209 .299 .362 .507 .293 31.3 96-C -14 3.3
2007 POR 3A 11 2 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 0.0 .182 .182 .273 -.598 .182 .182 .364 .173 -1.0 0.0
2007 CHN MJ 231 23 9 0 9 29 17 36 2 2 -1.4 .256 .307 .427 -.056 .249 .304 .426 .248 5.0 53-C -4 1.3
2007 SDN MJ 136 6 8 0 0 12 2 21 0 0 -1.9 .226 .235 .286 -.385 .235 .250 .288 .179 -7.1 32-C -3 0.0


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 6:08 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 332 43 17 1 10 42 27 46 2 1 -1.0 .284 .345 .449 .030 .292 .354 .480 .281 20.7 80-C -9 2.8
75o 313 36 16 1 8 38 24 44 2 1 -0.9 .268 .328 .419 -.051 .276 .336 .448 .266 13.2 76-C -8 2.2
60o 295 30 14 1 7 33 22 42 2 1 -0.8 .254 .313 .391 -.127 .261 .320 .418 .251 6.9 72-C -8 1.6
50o 289 28 14 1 7 32 21 41 2 1 -0.8 .249 .307 .382 -.153 .256 .314 .408 .246 4.9 71-C -8 1.4
40o 277 25 13 1 6 30 19 39 1 1 -0.7 .240 .297 .365 -.199 .247 .304 .390 .236 1.6 68-C -7 1.1
25o 259 20 11 1 5 26 17 37 1 1 -0.6 .227 .283 .340 -.267 .234 .289 .364 .222 -2.9 64-C -7 0.7
10o 209 11 8 0 2 17 12 30 1 1 -0.5 .196 .247 .281 -.430 .202 .253 .300 .182 -10.7 53-C -6 0.0
Weighted Mean 279 26 13 1 6 31 20 39 1 1 -0.7 .248 .306 .381 -.157 .256 .313 .407 .244 6.6 68-C -6 1.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

9%

30%

42%

30%

0.99

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 31) 279 26 13 1 6 31 20 39 1 1 -0.7 .248 .306 .381 -.157 .256 .313 .407 .244 6.6 68-C -6 1.7
2009 (age 32) 252 23 11 1 6 28 19 37 2 1 -0.6 .249 .308 .379 -.155 .252 .310 .398 .245 4.0 62-C -5 1.2
2010 (age 33) 224 19 10 1 5 24 17 32 2 1 -0.5 .252 .310 .380 -.148 .255 .312 .399 .246 3.6 56-C -6 1.0
2011 (age 34) 208 16 9 1 5 23 14 32 1 1 -0.4 .243 .299 .371 -.186 .246 .301 .389 .238 1.4 52-C -5 0.7
2012 (age 35) 187 13 8 0 3 18 12 29 1 0 -0.3 .240 .292 .351 -.228 .243 .295 .368 .229 0.0 48-C -5 0.4
2013 (age 36) 140 8 6 0 2 13 10 21 0 0 -0.2 .223 .287 .322 -.286 .226 .289 .338 .216 -0.9 37-C -4 0.2
2014 (age 37) 205 15 8 1 3 21 15 27 1 1 -0.2 .246 .309 .345 -.201 .250 .311 .362 .235 0.3 52-C -7 0.3

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .260 .323 .406
vs RHP .245 .299 .366
Split +.016 +.023 +.040
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.5 1.2 1.7 $1,825,000 -0.9 3.4
2009 0.4 0.8 1.2 $1,400,000 -2.1 2.5
2010 0.4 0.6 1.0 $1,200,000 -2.0 2.0
2011 0.2 0.5 0.7 $875,000 -3.0 0.4
2012 0.0 0.4 0.4 $650,000 -3.5 0.4
2013 0.0 0.2 0.2 $500,000 -2.6 0.0
2014 0.0 0.2 0.3 $600,000 -1.5 0.2
Peak 5.2 $3,650,000 0.0 8.7


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .266 .246 .222 .244
2009 .263 .250 .221 .245
2010 .269 .250 .217 .246
2011 .262 .233 .213 .238
2012 .254 .228 .208 .229
2013 .252 .234 .149 .216
2014 .259 .243 .209 .235


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 30% 0% 9%
2009 43% 11% 7%
2010 57% 19% 15%
2011 68% 34% 6%
2012 75% 46% 5%
2013 89% 66% 4%
2014 87% 75% 5%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Protective gear in baseball has come a long way, but it wasn`t enough to save Barrett from a foul tip. Barrett took a hit that broke his cup, leaving him with an interscrotal hematoma that ended his season in early September. The shame of it was that he was on his way to a career year at the plate. His already poor defense took a turn for the worse in 2006, though much of that may have been related to turnover on the pitching staff. He threw out only 15 percent of opposing baserunners, and he`s had his problems handling power stuff. Another poor year behind the plate could put a big dent in his 2008 date with free agency.

2006

Since Ron Santo`s day, Cubs fans have fetishized their concern over third base. But their catching hasn`t been too solid either, not since Randy Hundley was Santo`s teammate. An underrated player, Barrett became the first Cubs starting catcher to post back-to-back good seasons since Jody Davis nearly 20 years ago. He should make it three in a row this year. Concerns about his weakness against the running game are overstated; the Cubs feature a lot of slow-delivery power pitchers and it would take a small howitzer to compensate.

2005

Analysts don't like to give a lot of credence to the notion that a change of scenery ought to produce a marked change in outcomes. But one wonders whether expatriates from the Montreal/San Juan traveling road show warrant an exception, particularly somebody like Barrett, whose minor league numbers had always suggested a player who was underachieving his skill set. It surely also helped that Barrett stayed healthy the entire season and was given the comfort of a regular job at a regular position, and it may be that he is one of those players who benefited from getting the good, mentoring half of Dusty Baker. Barrett enters this season just a hair shy of five years of MLB service time, so the Cubs will have two years to determine whether he's a quick fix or a longer-term solution. PECOTA thinks it's the former.

2003

Though much has been made of his 1999 rookie season and the promise it offered for the future, Barrett has mostly been a hitter who looks good when a few more balls drop in for hits, mediocre when they don’t. After ringing up 53 extra-base hits in Harrisburg in 1998, Barrett’s gotten by largely on his knack for slapping pitches to the opposite field. His .348/.418/.638 April offered a world of hope, then faded from view as the year wore on and his production waned. Barrett may be a few small adjustments away from breaking through. Whether the Expos want to wait on the talented catcher who can’t bring himself to pull the ball enough to be dangerous is another matter. The Expos had a great trade match with Texas staring them in the face, but John Hart blinked and overpaid for Einar Diaz instead, making another year of Barrett likely, at a non-bargain price.

2002

The Expos came to their senses, stationing Barrett behind home plate and leaving him there all season. In last year’s book, we theorized that such a move would cause Barrett’s offense to resurface, but we were mistaken—at least so far. There is a school of thought that says catchers develop more slowly with the bat because they have to focus so much on their defense. The Expos hope that Barrett is enrolled there; if not, he won’t graduate to the level he appeared headed towards in 1999.

2001

Michael Barrett’s core skills are like those of a hockey goalie: he’s all whip-snap reactions, bordering on downright twitchy. That kind of athleticism got him in trouble, because it was impressive enough to coax people into thinking he could play anywhere and everywhere when he’s best left at catcher. He was shut down early with elbow problems that affected his throwing and batting. Barrett is a great bet to start meeting the expectations of a year ago, before the distractions about his position became a problem.

2000

Barrett is an interesting player because his talents are basically all quickness-oriented. Not speed, but quickness: quick wrists as a hitter and quick reactions and nimble footwork at third base or behind the plate. His opportunity came a few months sooner than expected when both Chris Widger and Bob Henley were hurt in spring training, but it helped that he was an already an Alou favorite. Whether they’ll let him become a regular at catcher or third base is up in the air, but he’ll do them the most good behind the plate.

1999

The phenom, as the Montreal press is fond of calling him, took a nice step forward this year by crushing Eastern League pitching. He just switched to catching in '96, so his solid defense there is quite impressive. Still, mentioning him in the same breath as Sir Vlad is premature; Barrett's OPS of .883 pales next to Vlad's Harrisburg OPS of 1.050, and Vlad was only 20 at that time. Like nearly all Expo farmhands, needs to get on base more often.

1998

This former first-round pick is a kind of reverse Biggio, a shortstop-turned-catcher. Hard to know what to make of such a conversion. On one hand, the Expos deserve credit for trying something unusual, but it seems likely Barrett’s progress as a hitter will not be helped by the on-the-job training he’s getting behind the plate. Only 21, plenty of time to develop.


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