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Josh Beckett
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 28
6' 5"
220 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Red Sox Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP
Starter-1 Josh Beckett 200 30 3.74 1.24 189 58 19 172 13 8 0 41.3

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2005 FLO MJ 15 8 0 29 29 178.7 153 58 166 14 44% .294 27 1.18 3.37 3.29 3.59 7.4 2.7 7.7 0.7 34.0 5.2 7.1
2006 BOS MJ 16 11 0 33 33 204.7 191 73 158 36 46% .265 13 1.29 5.01 3.92 4.30 7.4 3.0 6.4 1.3 19.9 3.9 6.6
2007 BOS MJ 20 7 0 30 30 200.7 189 40 194 17 48% .307 32 1.14 3.27 3.62 3.37 8.7 1.6 8.1 0.7 58.6 6.2 8.7


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 6:28 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 18 6 0 33 33 231.0 195 57 211 17 46% .278 31 1.09 2.68 2.71 2.67 7.1 2.0 7.5 0.6 80.9 9.8 9.6
75o 15 7 0 31 31 210.0 189 57 186 18 46% .286 28 1.17 3.24 3.13 3.21 7.6 2.2 7.3 0.8 59.6 7.5 7.5
60o 14 8 0 30 30 200.0 185 57 175 18 46% .290 26 1.21 3.52 3.34 3.47 7.8 2.3 7.2 0.8 50.1 6.5 6.5
50o 13 8 0 29 29 189.0 181 56 162 19 46% .295 24 1.25 3.84 3.58 3.78 8.1 2.4 7.1 0.9 40.3 5.5 5.6
40o 12 8 0 28 28 182.3 178 56 154 19 46% .297 22 1.28 4.03 3.72 3.96 8.2 2.5 7.0 0.9 34.7 4.9 5.0
25o 10 9 0 26 26 164.0 168 54 135 19 45% .304 19 1.35 4.57 4.13 4.48 8.7 2.7 6.8 1.0 20.8 3.3 3.5
10o 9 9 0 25 25 150.0 160 52 120 19 45% .310 16 1.41 5.00 4.46 4.89 9.0 2.8 6.6 1.1 11.4 2.3 2.6
Weighted Mean 14 9 0 31 31 204.3 193 60 176 20 46% .293 24 1.24 3.74 3.50 3.68 8.0 2.4 7.1 0.8 42.2 6.1 5.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

17%

46%

20%

11%

1.01

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 28) 14 9 0 31 31 204.3 193 60 176 20 46% .293 24 1.24 3.74 3.50 3.68 8.0 2.4 7.1 0.8 42.2 6.1 5.9
2009 (age 29) 13 9 0 30 30 199.3 194 57 169 20 47% .297 22 1.26 3.89 3.64 3.83 8.2 2.3 7.0 0.9 36.2 5.6 5.2
2010 (age 30) 13 9 0 30 30 195.3 191 52 166 19 46% .300 23 1.25 3.84 3.59 3.78 8.3 2.2 7.0 0.9 33.7 5.6 4.8
2011 (age 31) 13 9 0 29 29 191.0 188 54 151 19 47% .294 19 1.27 3.97 3.69 3.91 8.3 2.3 6.5 0.9 27.6 5.2 4.1
2012 (age 32) 12 9 1 40 26 186.7 187 53 139 19 47% .295 13 1.28 3.92 3.75 3.86 8.5 2.3 6.2 0.9 25.1 4.9 3.7
2013 (age 33) 9 8 1 40 19 144.7 148 41 104 16 46% .295 7 1.30 4.14 3.94 4.05 8.6 2.3 5.9 1.0 17.8 3.3 2.8
2014 (age 34) 3 3 0 15 7 51.3 52 15 38 6 46% .292 7 1.30 4.15 3.91 4.06 8.6 2.4 6.1 1.0 15.1 1.2 2.4

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .246 .332 .399
vs RHB .240 .299 .367
Split +.006 +.033 +.032
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 5.9 $16,225,000 42.6 53.2
2009 5.2 $14,850,000 36.7 45.1
2010 4.8 $14,500,000 34.1 41.9
2011 4.1 $12,475,000 28.0 31.5
2012 3.7 $12,025,000 25.4 26.3
2013 2.8 $8,950,000 18.2 18.0
2014 2.4 $7,900,000 15.4 16.1
Peak 26.6 $65,275,000 166.7 215.9


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 3.21 3.78 4.48 3.68
2009 3.39 3.94 4.34 3.83
2010 3.27 3.83 4.62 3.78
2011 3.48 3.93 4.74 3.91
2012 3.46 4.12 4.68 3.86
2013 3.50 4.34 5.19 4.05
2014 3.51 4.16 4.84 4.06


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 11% 0% 17%
2009 16% 3% 14%
2010 27% 6% 10%
2011 34% 15% 9%
2012 42% 22% 9%
2013 53% 31% 6%
2014 61% 36% 6%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

57

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Andy Benes 1995 61 11 Freddy Garcia 2003 47
2 John Smoltz 1995 53 12 Jim Bunning 1959 47
3 Pete Vuckovich 1980 53 13 Roger Clemens 1990 47
4 Bill Singer 1972 52 14 Javier Vazquez 2004 47
5 Kerry Wood 2005 51 15 Dennis Leonard 1979 46
6 Don Wilson 1973 51 16 John Lackey 2006 46
7 Bob Rush 1954 51 17 Melido Perez 1994 46
8 Len Barker 1983 51 18 Alex Fernandez 1997 45
9 Don Drysdale 1964 50 19 Burt Hooton 1978 44
10 Fergie Jenkins 1971 49 20 Chris Short 1965 44

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

The centerpiece of last winter`s master plan, Beckett was expected to front the Sox`s rotation. While he avoided the blister problems that have disabled him six times so far--enabling his first 200-inning campaign--the solution was a costly one. Beckett covered his middle finger with a Band-Aid between starts, but the remedy prevented him from throwing his curve during bullpen sessions. He then struggled to locate it during games and was forced to over-rely on a very straight fastball. The results were predictable; his 36 homers allowed tied for second in the majors, and his 10 first-pitch homers tied for first. Despite his troubles, the Sox signed him to a three-year, $30-million extension in July, a smart move in light of the winter`s drastic salary inflation. Beckett has the talent to justify that faith, but he`ll need to adjust to succeed in the AL.

2006

In selecting Beckett`s comparables, PECOTA had injuries on its mind; Bradley and Busby were young pitchers who were pushed extremely hard by their managers and burned out in just a few years. Their misfortune was that they had the strength to endure the heavy workload, at least in the short term, whereas Beckett has hit the DL nine times in the last four seasons, buying his arm a respite. That`s looking at the glass as half full. The contrary POV would be that Beckett, who has never pitched 200 innings in a season, lacks the durability to lead the Red Sox`s staff or endure the more grueling games in the DH league. If Beckett survives and prospers, it will be because of his improving control--he`s cut his walk rate in every season of his career--and Terry Francona realizing that he has another Pedro Martinez-style hothouse flower, a pitcher who might do great work for you if you treat him gently.

2005

As aggravating as Beckett's blister problems have been for the right-hander and his team, they may end up as a long-term benefit, as they've kept his workload down during a critical period for a young pitcher. His performance hasn't varied much in three seasons, and he's at an age where he can be expected to add innings and show improvement. He could have the kind of big-step-forward performance that another right-hander, Ben Sheets, had in his fourth season.

2003

Beckett’s got scorching heat, but he needs to be able to throw it without the blister problems he experienced in 2002. Two separate trips to the DL and missed turns in the rotation due to blistering on his middle finger put a damper on his season. Beckett doesn’t have a history of blisters, and the injuries kept Torborg from pitching Beckett as hard as he did Burnett, so this could be a blessing in disguise. Look for a full-strength season in 2003, and some enjoyable Beckett-Prior duels down the road.

2002

Stud. He shook off concerns about the shoulder tendinitis that cut short his 2000 season to have one of the great pitching-prospect years of recent times. He'll open 2002 in the Marlins' rotation; hopes are high, but Beckett is still basically a two-pitch pitcher, and he has fewer than 100 innings above A ball. Be realistic in your expectations for 2002.

2001

Josh Beckett began what, contractually, has to be a rapid rise to the big leagues. He showed the ability and poise that caused some scouts to call him the best pitching prospect of his generation, throwing a 95-mph fastball, a big breaking curveball, and a change-up so improved that it became his number-two pitch. He made just 12 starts, twice being shut down with shoulder tendinitis that he says resulted from pumping too much iron. Injury is the only thing that can derail him from assuming a permanent role in The Show by 2004.

2000

The #2 overall pick in the 1999 draft, Beckett demanded and received a major-league contract from the Marlins. This puts a tremendous amount of pressure on him and the organization, and almost guarantees that he’ll be asked to do too much before he’s physically ready. Drafting high-school pitchers is risky enough without mandating that they take up valuable space on your 40-man roster. Beckett is a fastball/curveball pitcher, just like Kerry Wood.


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