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Erik Bedard
Seattle Mariners [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws L
Age 29
6' 1"
195 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Mariners Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP
Starter-1 Erik Bedard 200 30 3.37 1.24 173 74 15 214 12 9 0 45.3

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2005 DEL 1B 1 0 0 1 1 5.0 3 1 9 0 63% .375 46 0.80 0.00 1.21 0.00 8.3 4.2 10.4 0.0 2.7 0.5
2005 BOW 2A 0 1 0 1 1 2.0 2 1 4 0 25% .500 11 1.50 9.00 8.93 10.80 16.2 5.4 10.8 0.0 -1.0 -0.2
2005 BAL MJ 6 8 0 24 24 141.7 139 57 125 10 41% .323 23 1.38 4.00 4.15 4.06 8.8 3.7 7.9 0.6 24.7 3.7 4.0
2006 BAL MJ 15 11 0 33 33 196.3 196 69 171 16 50% .314 23 1.35 3.76 3.65 3.72 8.2 2.9 7.3 0.6 40.2 5.4 7.2
2007 BAL MJ 13 5 0 28 28 182.0 141 57 221 19 50% .287 38 1.09 3.16 3.18 2.95 6.9 2.5 9.6 0.9 54.9 6.0 7.3


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 6:29 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 15 8 0 31 31 213.3 165 74 239 14 48% .282 36 1.12 2.56 2.68 2.66 6.8 2.8 8.8 0.6 74.2 9.0 8.9
75o 14 8 0 30 30 202.3 164 72 223 14 48% .290 34 1.17 2.86 2.93 2.97 7.1 2.9 8.6 0.6 62.7 7.8 7.8
60o 12 9 0 29 29 191.7 162 70 209 15 48% .296 32 1.21 3.16 3.18 3.27 7.4 3.0 8.5 0.7 52.4 6.7 6.8
50o 12 9 0 28 28 185.3 161 69 200 15 48% .301 31 1.24 3.34 3.33 3.46 7.6 3.1 8.4 0.7 46.3 6.0 6.2
40o 11 9 0 28 28 179.3 159 68 191 15 48% .305 30 1.27 3.52 3.48 3.64 7.7 3.1 8.4 0.7 40.7 5.4 5.6
25o 9 10 0 26 26 163.3 154 65 170 14 49% .315 27 1.34 3.99 3.88 4.12 8.2 3.3 8.2 0.8 27.5 4.0 4.2
10o 6 10 0 23 23 133.0 140 58 132 14 49% .334 20 1.48 4.95 4.69 5.09 9.2 3.5 7.8 0.9 6.4 1.7 2.0
Weighted Mean 12 10 0 30 30 195.0 169 73 210 15 48% .301 31 1.24 3.37 3.36 3.50 7.6 3.1 8.4 0.7 44.2 6.2 6.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

18%

50%

24%

10%

1.14

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 29) 12 10 0 30 30 195.0 169 73 210 15 48% .301 31 1.24 3.37 3.36 3.50 7.6 3.1 8.4 0.7 44.2 6.2 6.1
2009 (age 30) 12 9 0 29 29 187.3 165 70 200 15 48% .303 29 1.26 3.43 3.44 3.55 7.7 3.1 8.4 0.7 38.0 5.9 5.3
2010 (age 31) 11 9 0 27 27 172.3 153 64 180 14 48% .302 28 1.26 3.48 3.47 3.60 7.8 3.1 8.2 0.7 31.8 5.3 4.5
2011 (age 32) 10 10 1 39 24 173.7 156 59 162 14 48% .292 19 1.24 3.42 3.41 3.54 7.8 2.8 7.3 0.7 32.8 5.2 4.7
2012 (age 33) 12 11 1 44 26 193.7 175 65 181 17 49% .292 19 1.24 3.39 3.44 3.50 7.9 2.7 7.3 0.8 30.1 5.9 4.3
2013 (age 34) 8 9 2 42 19 147.0 141 51 139 12 49% .308 16 1.30 3.64 3.70 3.77 8.4 2.8 7.4 0.8 23.6 3.9 3.6
2014 (age 35) 5 5 1 24 10 78.0 71 26 74 6 50% .299 17 1.24 3.46 3.44 3.59 8.0 2.7 7.5 0.7 22.2 2.2 3.3

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .206 .298 .294
vs RHB .222 .302 .338
Split -.016 -.003 -.045
LgAvg -.020 -.021 -.054

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 6.1 $17,000,000 44.8 58.8
2009 5.3 $15,325,000 38.6 50.0
2010 4.5 $13,325,000 32.3 40.9
2011 4.7 $15,225,000 33.3 42.3
2012 4.3 $14,600,000 30.5 37.2
2013 3.6 $12,250,000 24.1 29.1
2014 3.3 $11,925,000 22.6 29.1
Peak 28.5 $71,825,000 179.5 258.3


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 2.97 3.46 4.12 3.50
2009 3.06 3.59 4.52 3.55
2010 3.10 3.78 4.44 3.60
2011 3.07 3.61 4.63 3.54
2012 3.08 3.77 4.14 3.50
2013 3.22 3.93 4.57 3.77
2014 3.21 3.83 4.82 3.59


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 10% 0% 18%
2009 24% 2% 11%
2010 29% 13% 9%
2011 34% 12% 11%
2012 42% 27% 14%
2013 43% 24% 9%
2014 53% 34% 11%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

28

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Mark Langston 1989 42 11 Hideo Nomo 1997 33
2 Floyd Bannister 1984 42 12 Jack Sanford 1958 31
3 Harvey Haddix 1955 39 13 Ewell Blackwell 1952 27
4 Sonny Siebert 1966 38 14 Whitey Ford 1958 27
5 Ron Guidry 1979 37 15 Teddy Higuera 1988 27
6 David Cone 1992 36 16 Roger Clemens 1991 26
7 Jack Harshman 1956 36 17 Billy Pierce 1956 26
8 Kevin Appier 1997 36 18 Len Barker 1984 23
9 Bob Gibson 1965 35 19 Bob Lemon 1950 21
10 Mickey Lolich 1970 35 20 Jim Maloney 1969 21

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Bedard is one of the best pitchers in the majors right now. In terms of rate stats, he basically repeated his very good 2005 last year, but what made 2006 even better was that he stayed healthy, throwing more than 150 innings for the first time in his professional career. Staying healthy is a skill; now that Bedard has done it once, the chances of his doing it again are better. Even so, the odds still favor more injury time. Another encouraging sign was that Bedard got better as the season went on, perhaps having shaken off some World Baseball Classic fatigue.

2006

Bedard was on his way to a spectacular season when he sprained his knee in May. What was supposed to be a minimal 15-day stay on the DL dragged on for eight weeks. Somewhere in there, Bedard lost his release point and never recovered it. Following his return, his walk rate more than doubled, his hit rate jumped, and things just kept getting worse the longer the season went on. His stuff is undeniably good, but his control and his inability to stay healthy have held him back.

2005

Judging solely by how he'd pitched before, 2004 wasn't so good for Bedard: He was far more hittable and wilder than normal, and consequently gave up a lot more runs. Considering that it was his first active duty since having Tommy John surgery, and that he was able to strike opposing batters out at an above-average rate, the results were actually pretty decent. Durability is still a big concern—last year's 137 innings is his professional best for a season—and he needs control to be the great pitcher that's within his realm of the possible. The Orioles did a good job of protecting him from over work, but it will be interesting to see if they let him work deeper into games this season.

2003

Oriole medicine, part 2 (see David Segui for part 1). Bedard was, without a doubt, the best pitcher in the Oriole system at the start of 2002: left-handed, with an above-average fastball, a better curve, totally and completely unhittable by left-handed hitters (who were 2–37 against him in 2002). So the Orioles bring him to major league camp, and leave him there until mid-March, at which point he’s thrown just 11 competitive innings. He starts the season on a 50-pitch limit, 25 behind the other Bowie starters. But no problem, he is just as dominating as ever, and even gets a quick little call-up to Baltimore. Still, he’s tearing up the league, up until June 26. On that day, throwing a two-hitter, he went out for the eighth inning, even though he had already reached his pitch count. The manager thought it was just so much fun, and then pop goes the elbow. The MRI showed that he had a partially torn ligament. The Orioles’ medical staff prescribed rest, hoping that the tear would heal on its own. Six weeks later, without taking another MRI to see if it had healed at all, they had Bedard resume throwing. The very next day, the pain was back, and Bedard was heading for surgery. He won’t pitch in 2003; he’s unlikely to be effective until the second half of 2004, if then. As you can see, that’s a shame.

2002

A big-time prospect whose name people don't yet know, Bedard came from a Canadian high school with no baseball team. He then had to walk on to a community college team, so he is quite inexperienced for his age. He allowed just 27 runs in 17 starts, with 13 of those runs coming in back-to-back disasters. His pitches have a lot of movement, breaking in on and destroying left-handed hitters. He missed six weeks with tendinitis, then pitched well at Frederick and in the Arizona Fall League.


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