Matt Belisle

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Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time
Reds Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)

Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP

Spot Matt Belisle 70 11 4.57 1.41 79 19 8 47 3 4 0 7.5

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 6:30 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	13	9	0	30	30	195.3	201	48	138	21	47%	.295	16	1.27	3.68	3.96	3.66	9.0	2.0	5.6	0.9	43.3	5.8	6.4
75^o	11	9	0	29	29	180.3	194	47	125	21	47%	.303	13	1.34	4.10	4.35	4.09	9.4	2.1	5.6	1.0	31.2	4.5	5.1
60^o	10	10	0	28	28	168.3	188	46	116	21	47%	.310	11	1.39	4.45	4.68	4.44	9.8	2.2	5.5	1.1	22.2	3.5	4.1
50^o	9	10	0	26	26	156.7	182	45	106	21	47%	.316	9	1.45	4.81	5.01	4.80	10.1	2.3	5.4	1.2	14.2	2.6	3.3
40^o	8	10	0	26	26	153.0	180	45	103	21	47%	.318	8	1.46	4.92	5.11	4.91	10.2	2.4	5.4	1.2	11.9	2.4	3.0
25^o	7	10	0	25	25	140.0	171	43	93	21	47%	.325	5	1.53	5.34	5.50	5.33	10.6	2.5	5.3	1.3	4.2	1.5	2.1
10^o	4	9	0	29	18	106.7	144	37	68	19	47%	.343	-7	1.69	6.46	6.54	6.43	11.8	2.8	5.1	1.5	-10.3	-0.3	0.3
Weighted Mean	10	10	0	28	28	169.7	192	47	116	22	47%	.312	11	1.41	4.57	4.78	4.56	9.9	2.3	5.5	1.1	18.3	3.3	3.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
11%	47%	14%	15%	0.99

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 28)	10	10	0	28	28	169.7	192	47	116	22	47%	.312	11	1.41	4.57	4.78	4.56	9.9	2.3	5.5	1.1	18.3	3.3	3.4
2009 (age 29)	9	9	0	26	26	157.0	176	42	108	21	47%	.308	10	1.38	4.55	4.72	4.54	9.8	2.2	5.5	1.1	15.8	3.1	2.9
2010 (age 30)	8	9	0	25	25	149.3	170	39	104	19	47%	.314	10	1.40	4.61	4.78	4.60	9.9	2.2	5.6	1.1	13.6	2.9	2.6
2011 (age 31)	8	9	0	35	22	141.3	163	40	93	21	47%	.309	0	1.43	4.79	5.03	4.76	10.0	2.3	5.2	1.3	10.2	2.3	2.2
2012 (age 32)	6	8	1	37	17	120.0	142	33	75	19	47%	.311	-4	1.46	5.12	5.21	5.12	10.3	2.2	5.0	1.3	4.5	1.4	1.3
2013 (age 33)	4	5	1	33	9	77.7	91	23	50	11	46%	.312	-6	1.46	5.05	5.15	5.04	10.2	2.4	5.1	1.2	4.3	0.8	1.1
2014 (age 34)	3	4	1	27	7	60.3	72	17	37	9	46%	.317	-7	1.48	5.16	5.28	5.15	10.5	2.3	4.9	1.2	2.7	0.6	0.8

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.277	.355	.458
vs RHB	.271	.326	.423
Split	+.006	+.029	+.035
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	3.4	$7,150,000	17.9	18.6
2009	2.9	$6,375,000	15.4	16.2
2010	2.6	$5,850,000	13.3	13.4
2011	2.2	$4,875,000	9.8	11.2
2012	1.3	$2,650,000	4.2	6.5
2013	1.1	$2,475,000	4.0	5.6
2014	0.8	$1,750,000	2.4	4.0
Peak	13.5	$23,600,000	60.6	71.6

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	4.09	4.80	5.33	4.56
2009	3.88	4.51	5.38	4.54
2010	3.99	4.56	5.42	4.60
2011	4.30	4.76	6.16	4.76
2012	4.34	5.65	6.70	5.12
2013	4.61	5.68	6.58	5.04
2014	4.17	5.14	7.65	5.15

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	15%	0%	11%
2009	30%	6%	17%
2010	39%	19%	13%
2011	46%	19%	11%
2012	55%	28%	7%
2013	65%	38%	6%
2014	73%	50%	4%

67

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	John Burkett	1992	73		11	La Marr Hoyt	1983	61
2	Danny Cox	1987	70		12	Bob Milacki	1992	61
3	Doc Medich	1977	69		13	Dick Tidrow	1975	61
4	Carl Pavano	2004	67		14	Dick Bosman	1972	58
5	Jose Mesa	1994	67		15	Dick Donovan	1956	58
6	Mark Clark	1996	66		16	Dave Lemanczyk	1978	56
7	Tim Leary	1987	65		17	Tom Poholsky	1957	56
8	Dick Fowler	1949	63		18	Brian Moehler	2000	54
9	Jon Lieber	1998	62		19	Joe Coleman	1950	53
10	Bobby Jones	1998	61		20	Russ Kemmerer	1959	53

Player Comments

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2007

In Old Testament Hebrew, belial means `without worth.` While Matt`s not that bad, it`s time to cue up Peggy Lee and accept that this is all that there is. You could cut him some slack over the back injury that cost him more than two months in 2006, but he wasn`t all that good in 2005, and that wasn`t the first major back injury he`s endured. With pedestrian stuff, he`s in danger of falling into the dreaded Quadruple-A class of pitching talent, perpetually hoping for a fifth starter`s job or garbage time out of the pen.

2006

Belisle`s top prospect label was removed after a serious back injury in 2001. Now he`s yet another spear-carrier in the Reds phalanx of hard-working, blue-collar former high school pitchers with middling stuff (fastball, slider, change). His 2006 role is unsettled, as he could end up in middle relief or be inserted into the rotation, but he`ll end up in Louisville quickly if he doesn`t learn how to mix up his pitches to left-handed hitters.

2005

Getting Belisle for Kent Mercker in a late-season dump trade with the Braves in 2003 was the kind of move teams like the Reds need to make to help themselves. So far the deal only looks good on paper, after Belisle gave up 1.5 baserunners per inning in Louisville. Whether it's the result of struggling at higher levels or the residual effects of his injury, Belisle has grown more and more mediocre every year since missing all of 2001 due to a ruptured disc in his back. He's still got time to turn it around.

Pos	Name	IP	GS	ERA	WHIP	H	BB	HR	SO	W	L	SV	VORP
Spot	Matt Belisle	70	11	4.57	1.41	79	19	8	47	3	4	0	7.5

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	CIN	MJ	4	8	1	60	5	85.7	101	26	59	11	54%	.330	-5	1.48	4.41	5.01	4.78	9.8	2.4	5.5	1.1	3.5	0.6	2.4
2006	DYT	1B	1	0	1	2	0	4.1	3	0	3	0	69%	.250	-15	0.73	0.00	3.64	4.50	6.8	2.2	2.2	0.0	0.5		0.2
2006	CHT	2A	0	0	0	2	1	3.1	3	0	4	0	56%	.333	41	0.97	0.00	0.66	0.00	9.0	0.0	9.0	0.0	1.9		0.1
2006	LOU	3A	1	0	0	8	1	9.2	4	1	9	0	77%	.182	19	0.54	0.00	0.30	0.00	4.0	1.0	6.0	0.0	5.6		0.7
2006	CIN	MJ	2	0	0	30	2	40.0	43	19	26	5	50%	.306	-7	1.55	3.60	4.80	3.57	9.1	3.6	5.4	0.9	9.0	0.4	1.1
2007	LOU	3A	0	1	0	1	1	6.0	7	2	7	0	79%	.368	21	1.50	3.00	4.82	7.50	10.5	3.0	7.5	0.0	-1.3		0.0
2007	CIN	MJ	8	9	0	30	30	177.7	212	43	125	26	43%	.336	12	1.44	5.32	4.86	4.79	9.8	1.8	5.9	1.2	7.7	1.7	3.9

Projected Playing Time

Historical Stats