Joseph Bisenius

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/10/09 3:30 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	4	3	1	25	8	65.3	61	36	54	7	41%	.281	8	1.47	4.42	0	4.58	8.3	4.3	6.4	1.0	8.1	1.0	1.4
75^o	3	4	0	24	7	59.3	61	36	48	8	42%	.296	3	1.62	5.30	0	5.46	9.1	4.8	6.2	1.2	1.4	0.4	0.7
60^o	3	4	0	23	7	55.7	61	36	44	9	42%	.306	-1	1.73	5.89	0	6.04	9.7	5.1	6.1	1.4	-2.5	0.0	0.2
50^o	3	4	0	23	7	54.0	60	36	42	9	42%	.311	-3	1.79	6.20	0	6.34	10.0	5.3	6.0	1.5	-4.3	-0.2	0.0
40^o	2	4	0	22	6	51.7	60	36	40	9	42%	.317	-5	1.85	6.58	0	6.72	10.3	5.5	6.0	1.6	-6.4	-0.4	-0.2
25^o	2	3	0	20	6	45.0	58	35	34	10	42%	.334	-12	2.06	7.77	0	7.88	11.5	6.1	5.8	1.9	-11.6	-0.9	-0.8
10^o	1	3	0	17	4	34.0	50	30	24	10	43%	.358	-22	2.37	10.10	0	10.22	13.1	7.0	5.5	2.4	-17.9	-1.5	-1.5
Weighted Mean	2	3	0	22	6	51.0	57	34	40	9	42%	.311	-2	1.78	6.17	0	6.31	10.0	5.3	6.1	1.5	-3.9	-0.1	-0.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
9%	28%	33%	17%	1.04

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2009 (age 26)	2	3	0	22	6	51.0	57	34	40	9	42%	.311	-2	1.78	6.17	0	6.31	10.0	5.3	6.1	1.5	-3.9	-0.1	-0.1
2010 (age 27)	3	3	0	23	6	54.7	56	37	46	8	42%	.300	1	1.69	5.51	0	5.67	9.1	5.3	6.5	1.2	-0.1	0.2	0.2
2011 (age 28)	3	3	0	22	6	52.0	56	32	44	8	41%	.312	2	1.69	5.82	0	5.99	9.6	4.9	6.6	1.3	-0.9	0.0	0.1
2012 (age 29)	2	3	0	18	5	41.3	48	26	29	6	42%	.316	-5	1.76	5.81	0	5.97	10.2	4.9	5.4	1.2	-0.6	0.0	0.1
2013 (age 30)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 31)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 32)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.254	.387	.441
vs RHB	.255	.366	.405
Split	-.001	+.021	+.036
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2009	0.0	$400,000	-4.7	0.8
2010	0.2	$625,000	-0.6	1.6
2011	0.1	$475,000	-1.2	0.7
2012	0.1	$525,000	-0.9	0.3
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak	0.5	$275,000	0.0	4.2

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	5.46	6.34	7.88	6.31
2010	4.87	5.88	7.70	5.67
2011	4.73	6.14	7.73	5.99
2012	4.69	5.94	7.81	5.97
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	17%	0%	9%
2010	42%	28%	15%
2011	64%	51%	13%
2012	73%	61%	11%
2013	82%	75%	10%
2014	86%	77%	10%
2015	90%	86%	6%

72

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Bobby Rodgers	2001	69		11	Mike Grzanich	1999	59
2	Brandon Puffer	2002	66		12	Jared Hoerman	2004	59
3	Bert Snow	2004	65		13	Ike Pettaway	1981	59
4	Mark Silva	1985	63		14	Mike James	1994	58
5	David Shafer	2008	63		15	Rusty Ford	1987	58
6	Jayson Durocher	2001	63		16	T.R. Bryden	1985	58
7	Billy Sylvester	2003	62		17	Andy Croghan	1996	58
8	Joe Valentine	2006	61		18	Pat Flury	1999	58
9	Gary Knotts	2003	60		19	Dave Latter	1993	57
10	Keith Glauber	1998	59		20	Mike Roesler	1990	57

Player Comments

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2008

Joe Bisenius made the Phils' Opening Day roster last year, but only as a seat-warmer for an injured veteran. He's your standard low-90s fastball/slider reliever, or he was until his command took a giant step backwards at Triple-A Ottawa.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	CLR	A+	4	1	2	35	0	60.1	48	22	62	4	54%	.283	-3	1.16	1.95	-2	4.00	10.0	4.5	5.2	1.5	9.6	0.0	1.6
2006	REA	AA	4	2	5	16	0	23.0	14	8	33	2	39%	.286	14	0.96	3.13	0	5.49	8.7	4.1	8.7	1.4	0.2	0.0	0.6
2007	OTT	AAA	3	4	0	35	0	46.0	52	31	41	5	37%	.370	-17	1.80	5.48	0	7.44	11.5	6.6	5.5	1.7	-8.6	0.0	-0.5
2007	PHI	MLB	0	0	0	2	0	2.0	2	2	3	0	0%	.500	19	2.00	0.00	0	0.00	10.8	10.8	10.8	0.0	1.3	0.0	0.1
2008	REA	AA	3	3	0	28	0	42.0	33	24	33	5	44%	.262	-18	1.36	3.43	6	5.72	8.0	5.0	5.3	1.6	-0.5	0.0	0.5
2008	LEH	AAA	0	2	0	15	0	21.7	24	18	21	1	42%	.390	-15	1.94	7.05	-1	8.44	10.1	7.6	5.5	0.8	-6.7	0.0	-0.4

Historical Stats