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Casey Blake
Cleveland Indians [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Third Base
Bats R
Age 34
6' 2"
210 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Indians Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
1B 5 Casey Blake 5 34 .264 58 14 66 4 .333 .432 9.6
3B 9 Casey Blake 75 469 .264 58 14 66 4 .333 .432 9.6
2   2008 Total 80 503 .264 58 14 66 4 .333 .432 9.6

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 CLE MJ 583 72 32 1 23 58 43 116 4 5 1.5 .241 .308 .438 -.024 .249 .325 .462 .266 4.4 133-RF 8 4.0
2006 LKC 1B 4 1 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0.0 .500 .750 2.000 2.180 .500 .750 .999 .703 1.7 0.2
2006 AKR 2A 3 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.0 .333 .333 .667 .470 .333 .333 .667 .318 0.4 0.0
2006 CLE MJ 456 63 20 1 19 68 45 93 6 0 -1.9 .282 .356 .479 .109 .280 .363 .487 .293 22.4 93-RF 2 3.8
2007 CLE MJ 662 81 36 4 18 78 54 123 4 5 2.1 .270 .339 .437 .037 .272 .346 .461 .274 17.6 134-3B -8 3.9


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 6:49 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 536 77 29 2 20 80 51 98 5 3 -0.6 .289 .364 .486 .137 .287 .363 .504 .298 30.5 126-3B -1 5.2
75o 502 65 27 2 17 71 46 94 5 2 -0.5 .278 .350 .461 .071 .275 .349 .477 .286 20.6 118-3B -2 4.2
60o 476 56 25 2 15 65 42 91 4 2 -0.5 .269 .339 .442 .022 .266 .338 .458 .277 13.9 113-3B -3 3.4
50o 454 50 23 2 13 60 39 88 4 2 -0.4 .262 .330 .427 -.018 .259 .329 .442 .270 8.9 108-3B -3 2.9
40o 435 45 22 2 12 55 36 85 4 2 -0.4 .256 .322 .414 -.052 .253 .321 .429 .263 5.0 103-3B -4 2.4
25o 404 38 20 1 10 48 32 81 3 2 -0.4 .246 .310 .393 -.107 .244 .309 .407 .252 -0.6 96-3B -4 1.7
10o 334 25 15 1 7 35 23 70 3 1 -0.3 .226 .284 .350 -.220 .224 .283 .363 .228 -9.6 81-3B -5 0.5
Weighted Mean 496 58 26 2 15 66 43 95 4 2 -0.4 .264 .333 .432 -.004 .262 .332 .448 .272 9.5 117-3B -3 3.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

10%

36%

28%

21%

0.87

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 34) 496 58 26 2 15 66 43 95 4 2 -0.4 .264 .333 .432 -.004 .262 .332 .448 .272 9.5 117-3B -3 3.5
2009 (age 35) 463 51 23 2 13 58 40 88 3 2 -0.3 .259 .329 .418 -.034 .260 .333 .441 .266 5.1 110-3B -8 1.9
2010 (age 36) 325 31 16 1 10 44 30 63 3 1 -0.3 .257 .330 .425 -.025 .258 .334 .449 .269 4.3 79-3B -7 1.4
2011 (age 37) 310 28 15 1 9 38 26 62 2 1 -0.2 .249 .319 .412 -.064 .251 .323 .435 .260 1.3 75-3B -6 0.8
2012 (age 38)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 40)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .276 .351 .457
vs RHP .260 .325 .414
Split +.016 +.026 +.043
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 1.9 1.6 3.5 $6,375,000 10.5 8.4
2009 1.2 0.7 1.9 $2,650,000 2.6 4.9
2010 1.0 0.4 1.4 $1,925,000 1.6 2.2
2011 0.5 0.3 0.8 $1,000,000 0.0 2.0
2012 0.3 0.1 0.4 $625,000 -0.6 1.0
2013 0.2 0.1 0.3 $675,000 0.4 0.5
2014 0.1 0.1 0.2 $525,000 -0.4 0.4
Peak 8.3 $10,175,000 14.6 19.1


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .286 .270 .252 .272
2009 .279 .263 .236 .266
2010 .279 .256 .233 .269
2011 .276 .248 .216 .260
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 21% 0% 10%
2009 43% 21% 5%
2010 68% 36% 6%
2011 76% 54% 3%
2012 87% 71% 4%
2013 91% 84% 3%
2014 93% 87% 1%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Blake blossomed into a big leaguer in 2003 at the advanced age of 29, but the bloom seemed to be off the rose after a 2005 season that was just plain bad. After pushing off speculation that his job was in jeopardy with a torrid start to 2006, hitting .330/.411/.566 through early June, Blake was already cooling when a strained left oblique sent him to the DL for a month. He continued to hit well upon returning in mid-July, but an ankle injury that shelved him for twenty days in August finally derailed his momentum. From his August 25 return until the end of the season, he batted .211/.268/.325 with just 3 home runs in 114 at-bats. For the season, he was a league-average right fielder--not great, not bad, but good enough for the Indians to pick up his $3.75 million extension for 2007. He`ll get plenty of at-bats as a platoon option at both corner outfield positions and as a back-up first baseman.

2006

After five years as a waiver-wire hot potato, Blake had his career year in 2004 at the age 30, while playing a brutal third base. Shifted to right field to make room for Aaron Boone, Blake went back to being a spud. Despite leading the AL in pitches per plate appearance in 2005, Blake`s bat is light for an infield or outfield corner, which are the only spots he`s "capable" of playing (he was second among AL right fielders in errors last year). The Indians inked him to a two-year, $5.4 million deal after his 2004 season, one of Mark Shapiro`s few mistakes.

2005

Blake unexpectedly peaked, exceeding his 90th-percentile PECOTA projection with room to spare. Still, his horror show defense (including 26 errors) created a need for Aaron Boone in the organization's mind, and so Blake will begin 2005 as a potential right fielder in a crowded outfield. At 31, it's likely that we've just seen the best 600 ABs of Blake's career, but he should retain enough value to be at least an average contributor. He's a lock to outperform the .245/.338/.395 Cleveland got out of right field in '04, should he fend off challenges from everyone this side of Rocky Colavito.

2003

Blake isn’t suited for a role as a platoon hitter. He kills junk from righties or lefties, but he can be overpowered. As managers like McCarthy, Stengel, and Weaver demonstrated, platooning doesn’t have to be about righty-lefty splits, so Blake could have value as a spare part on a team that needs somebody who can put the hurt on Jamie Moyer or John Stephens with equal aplomb. He has a chance to be the Tribe’s Opening Day third baseman.

2002

A refugee from the Blue Jays' system, Blake is potentially a very useful player on the right club. He can play any infield position for short periods of time, and given 500 at-bats in an emergency situation, could definitely push a team towards a title, a la Randy Velarde.

2001

Not a lot of guys like Casey Blake make the book, but we’re in Ron Coomer territory here, and natural laws of selection don’t always apply. Blake has helped himself by playing a little bit of shortstop and first base. The Twins already have a good set of utility men, and getting a platoon mate for Koskie isn’t that high a priority or even necessary. Blake will need a break to have as much of a career as Archi Cianfrocco or Craig Paquette.

2000

He may be the Jays’ answer the third-base question in 2000, but Blake is more problem than solution. His defensive reputation is good, in contrast to his numbers, and that’s the best part of his game. If Toronto is going to contend, they’ll have to do better than this at the hot corner.

1999

He had an excellent season after he gave up on trying to pull everything, as he had been doing in his first two years. He's come along much better than most scouts expected, and he's become a much more consistent defensive player. Nevertheless, keep in mind that he's neither the hitter nor the defensive player that Tom Evans is, and he's both older and behind Evans in the chain.


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