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Russell Branyan
St. Louis Cardinals [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Designated Hitter
Bats L
Age 32
6' 3"
195 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 NAS 3A 20 4 4 0 1 3 3 8 0 0 0.0 .294 .400 .706 .529 .176 .300 .412 .259 -0.3 0.1
2005 MIL MJ 242 23 11 0 12 31 39 80 1 0 -0.1 .257 .378 .490 .175 .248 .372 .480 .292 14.7 52-3B -3 2.2
2006 TBA MJ 193 23 10 0 12 27 19 62 2 0 1.2 .201 .286 .473 -.101 .204 .297 .485 .264 0.2 41-RF -2 0.7
2006 SDN MJ 89 14 1 0 6 9 15 27 0 0 -0.2 .292 .416 .556 .333 .306 .427 .583 .337 8.1 20-3B -3 1.1
2007 BUF 3A 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0.0 .000 .000 .000 -1.187 .000 .000 .000 .000 -1.4 0.0
2007 SDN MJ 146 16 5 1 7 19 21 48 1 0 -1.3 .197 .322 .426 -.046 .207 .336 .463 .275 1.6 17-3B 4 1.6
2007 SLN MJ 39 4 0 0 1 2 7 15 0 0 -0.3 .188 .333 .281 -.238 .188 .333 .281 .228 -1.3 0.1
2007 PHI MJ 9 2 0 0 2 5 0 6 0 0 0.0 .222 .222 .889 .428 .222 .222 .889 .318 1.1 0.1


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 7:13 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 171 33 8 1 11 25 27 49 2 1 -0.2 .264 .384 .560 .220 .263 .384 .582 .316 14.4 44-DH 2.0
75o 157 25 7 1 9 22 23 47 2 1 -0.2 .238 .355 .499 .073 .236 .355 .518 .291 7.8 41-DH 1.4
60o 147 21 6 0 8 19 21 45 2 1 -0.2 .219 .334 .457 -.030 .218 .335 .474 .273 3.7 39-DH 1.0
50o 144 20 6 0 7 18 20 45 2 1 -0.1 .215 .330 .447 -.054 .214 .330 .464 .269 2.9 38-DH 0.9
40o 136 17 5 0 6 17 18 43 2 1 -0.1 .201 .314 .416 -.129 .200 .314 .432 .255 0.3 36-DH 0.7
25o 117 11 4 0 4 12 15 39 2 0 -0.1 .170 .278 .345 -.300 .169 .278 .359 .220 -4.5 32-DH 0.2
10o 85 5 2 0 2 7 9 31 1 0 -0.1 .131 .231 .256 -.518 .130 .231 .266 .165 -7.6 25-DH -0.2
Weighted Mean 113 14 4 0 6 16 16 35 1 0 -0.1 .217 .332 .452 -.041 .216 .332 .470 .270 5.3 31-DH 1.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

21%

35%

39%

56%

1.43

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 32) 113 14 4 0 6 16 16 35 1 0 -0.1 .217 .332 .452 -.041 .216 .332 .470 .270 5.3 31-DH 1.0
2009 (age 33) 114 15 4 0 6 17 16 35 2 0 -0.1 .227 .341 .469 .004 .223 .336 .479 .278 2.4 31-DH 0.5
2010 (age 34) 129 18 5 0 7 19 19 40 2 1 -0.1 .229 .345 .465 .007 .225 .340 .474 .277 1.6 35-DH 0.3
2011 (age 35)
-- out of baseball --
2012 (age 36)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 37)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 38)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .191 .304 .414
vs RHP .224 .347 .488
Split -.033 -.043 -.074
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.6 0.4 1.0 $1,675,000 4.3 4.2
2009 0.4 0.1 0.5 $900,000 1.6 1.5
2010 0.2 0.1 0.3 $725,000 1.0 0.7
2011 0.2 0.0 0.2 $525,000 0.2 0.5
2012 0.2 0.0 0.2 $600,000 0.5 0.5
2013 0.1 0.0 0.1 $450,000 0.0 0.3
2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 $450,000 0.0 0.0
Peak 2.3 $2,225,000 7.6 7.6


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .291 .269 .220 .270
2009 .293 .273 .241 .278
2010 .288 .279 .246 .277
2011
-- out of baseball --
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 56% 0% 21%
2009 75% 47% 12%
2010 80% 63% 9%
2011 90% 73% 5%
2012 85% 82% 8%
2013 97% 84% 7%
2014 99% 96% 6%

Player Comments

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2007

Consider calling him a `4C` for the four corner positions where he`ll be used: first, third, right and left. Having being fished out of the bargain bin, the left-handed Branyan probably won`t be used in a true platoon with Kevin Kouzmanoff at third, but he`ll make up for it by getting at-bats at the other three positions. Branyan remains the leader in Three True Outcome percentage since 1969 (min. of 1000 PA) having delivered a homer, walk, or whiff an amazing 52.3 percent of his plate appearances. Rounding out the top ten: Rob Deer 49.1, Adam Dunn 49, Mel Nieves 49, Jim Thome 47.5, Ryan Howard 47.4, Mark Bellhorn 45.7, Mark McGwire 45.6, Bo Jackson 45, and Bobby Estalella 44.3. Ten years ago, the list would have had names like Mickey Tettleton, Sam Horn, and Ken Phelps--you know, DHs. It`s an interesting reflection on how much the game has changed, as the benefits of trying to get your cookie and make it into your meal ticket seem pretty well understood among the beefier set.

2005

All hail the Three True Outcomes™. Branyan stepped to the big league plate 182 times in 2004. In 99 of those plate appearances (54%), the men wearing gloves were irrelevant, as Branyan walked to first, struck out, or launched a souvenir over the outfield wall. In the past 30 years, only Mark McGwire, Jack Clark, and Rob Deer have posted higher TTO percentages in a season with at least 182 plate appearances. As is usually the case with TTO players, Branyan produced a solid season despite a miserable .224 average. In a perfect world, he would go to spring training as the favorite for the third base job, but Milwaukee is nobody's idea of paradise.

2003

Bowden’s penchant for monster mashers put Branyan behind the wheel careening down I-71 last June. While Branyan was only too happy to put Indians’ hitting coach Eddie Murray in the rearview mirror, the road to Cincinnati ended in more part-time work. Since Bob Boone likes Branyan’s power off the bench, that’ll be his role in 2003. It’s maddening to see a valuable player underutilized simply because he too frequently carries his own bat back to the dugout after making an out. It makes as much sense as keeping an Esperante parked in the driveway out of fear the paint will get chipped. Branyan underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder last December and is expected to miss all of spring training.

2002

One of the reasons an extreme player, such as Branyan, has difficulty establishing himself is that he requires a manager with extraordinary patience. An all-or-nothing style is going to lead to bad stretches, and 2-for-43 just looks worse when it includes 30 strikeouts, as opposed to eight strikeouts and a bunch of groundouts and pop-ups. The Indians could help Branyan by picking a role for him and sticking with it for a full season. Even a platoon job would allow him to get 400 at-bats without worrying that a bad day will push him to the bench. The moving around—third base, left field, DH—is not helping his development, and he is a player of tremendous potential value.

2001

Russ Branyan gets compared to Dave Kingman for his strikeouts, and like Kong he also has the gift for making himself unloved. Upon his last promotion from Buffalo, a local reporter wrote about how great the move was for the Bisons. Branyan fought with Kenny Lofton in July and has irritated all of his minor-league managers. With Manny Ramirez gone and the Tribe employing a bunch of expensive outfield temps, Branyan will DH if he isn’t added to the list of traded prospects.

2000

Branyan is the ultimate high-stakes batter. Situational hitting? That’s for people who aren’t in scoring position when they come to the plate. Call it nostalgia for Rob Deer, but I really want to see what happens if Branyan gets 500 plate appearances. Sure, he could set a major-league record for strikeouts while struggling to stay above the Mendoza line. He could still pop 30 home runs while playing a solid third base.

1998

A conservative projection of his future marks him as a Dave Kingman clone: massive power, massive strikeouts. Has hit 79 homers the last two seasons, while his glove at third base has improved to the Bobby Bonilla level. Struggled a bit at Double-A. Baseball America named him the top prospect in the Carolina League.

1997

Branyan is very young, very streaky and very raw. He strikes out prodigiously, 286 times in the last two seasons alone. He led all A-ball players with 40 home runs, but Columbus shifted its fences this year, and was a very easy place to mash taters. He’s considered absent-minded on defense, as in he forgets he has to play it.


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