Lance Broadway

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Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time
White Sox Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)

Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP

Spot Lance Broadway 30 5 6.11 1.74 35 16 4 18 1 2 0 -1.2

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 6:59 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	7	7	0	30	18	117.7	121	60	79	14	49%	.294	1	1.54	4.56	4.55	4.33	8.8	4.1	5.5	1.0	16.1	2.3	2.8
75^o	5	8	0	31	17	109.7	121	58	71	14	48%	.303	-4	1.63	5.29	5.08	5.01	9.4	4.3	5.3	1.2	5.8	1.2	1.7
60^o	5	8	0	31	16	103.7	120	57	65	15	48%	.311	-8	1.71	5.89	5.52	5.57	9.9	4.5	5.1	1.3	-1.7	0.5	0.9
50^o	4	8	0	31	15	99.7	120	56	61	15	48%	.316	-11	1.76	6.29	5.82	5.95	10.3	4.6	5.0	1.4	-6.2	0.0	0.5
40^o	4	8	0	31	15	97.7	119	56	59	16	48%	.319	-12	1.79	6.49	5.97	6.14	10.4	4.6	4.9	1.4	-8.4	-0.2	0.2
25^o	3	7	0	31	14	89.7	117	54	51	16	48%	.329	-18	1.90	7.33	6.60	6.92	11.1	4.8	4.7	1.6	-16.4	-1.1	-0.6
10^o	3	7	0	30	12	79.3	112	51	42	16	48%	.342	-25	2.05	8.48	7.46	7.98	12.1	5.2	4.3	1.8	-24.9	-1.9	-1.5
Weighted Mean	4	8	0	32	15	102.0	121	57	63	15	48%	.314	-9	1.74	6.11	5.68	5.78	10.1	4.5	5.0	1.3	-4.2	0.2	0.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
12%	39%	24%	18%	1.11

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 24)	4	8	0	32	15	102.0	121	57	63	15	48%	.314	-9	1.74	6.11	5.68	5.78	10.1	4.5	5.0	1.3	-4.2	0.2	0.8
2009 (age 25)	4	7	0	33	13	94.7	112	51	59	14	48%	.316	-11	1.72	5.95	5.57	5.64	10.1	4.3	5.1	1.3	-2.2	0.3	0.9
2010 (age 26)	4	6	0	31	11	81.7	98	43	46	12	47%	.315	-14	1.73	6.06	5.67	5.73	10.3	4.3	4.6	1.3	-2.5	0.1	0.6
2011 (age 27)	3	5	0	31	9	74.0	91	38	44	10	47%	.324	-14	1.74	6.29	5.75	5.96	10.6	4.1	4.8	1.2	-4.1	-0.1	0.4
2012 (age 28)	3	5	0	29	7	69.0	80	31	43	10	48%	.310	-9	1.60	5.62	5.12	5.34	9.9	3.6	5.1	1.3	0.7	0.4	0.7
2013 (age 29)	2	4	0	23	5	51.3	61	25	32	8	48%	.316	-12	1.69	6.05	5.54	5.73	10.2	4.0	5.0	1.3	-1.5	0.0	0.4
2014 (age 30)	2	3	0	24	5	51.3	62	23	31	7	47%	.319	-11	1.65	5.73	5.47	5.39	10.4	3.6	4.9	1.3	0.2	0.2	0.4

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.282	.396	.458
vs RHB	.279	.372	.436
Split	+.004	+.024	+.022
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	0.8	$900,000	-2.7	3.5
2009	0.9	$1,000,000	-0.9	3.8
2010	0.6	$775,000	-1.5	3.2
2011	0.4	$600,000	-3.1	2.6
2012	0.7	$1,175,000	1.4	3.2
2013	0.4	$600,000	-0.9	2.4
2014	0.4	$800,000	0.7	0.6
Peak	3.8	$2,300,000	2.0	18.7

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	5.01	5.95	6.92	5.78
2009	4.64	5.64	6.88	5.64
2010	4.67	5.79	7.37	5.73
2011	5.01	5.92	7.46	5.96
2012	4.37	5.70	7.39	5.34
2013	4.99	6.51	7.79	5.73
2014	4.61	5.48	6.60	5.39

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	18%	0%	12%
2009	22%	9%	21%
2010	41%	16%	22%
2011	45%	24%	14%
2012	60%	34%	21%
2013	69%	46%	13%
2014	82%	66%	9%

62

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Jamie McAndrew	1992	67		11	Jason Bell	1999	47
2	Greg Gohr	1992	55		12	Ricky Stone	2000	47
3	Marc Valdes	1996	54		13	Mike Drumright	1999	46
4	Brian Williams	1993	53		14	C.J. Nitkowski	1998	45
5	Jason Standridge	2003	52		15	Matt Belisle	2005	45
6	JOHNNY ARD	1992	51		16	Bob Wickman	1993	45
7	Chris Bootcheck	2003	49		17	John Burke	1994	44
8	Steve Soderstrom	1997	48		18	Colby Lewis	2004	44
9	Dan Serafini	1998	48		19	Ryan Bradley	2000	43
10	Rocky Biddle	2001	47		20	Carlton Loewer	1998	43

Player Comments

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2007

Don`t be fooled by that gaudy ERA in Birmingham; it came in one of the best pitchers` parks in the minor leagues and was accompanied by less-than-impressive strikeout numbers. Broadway should get to the big leagues on the strength of a plus curveball and good mechanics, but he doesn`t miss enough bats to project as more than a fourth starter. What chance he has to be more than that probably depends on his developing something with a little sink on it, because hitters are going to tee off on his middling fastball in the Cell. Failing that, he looks like more of an Off-Broadway production.

2006

In contrast to Bajenaru, Broadway deserves some extra credit relative to his statistics. For one thing, he generates a large number of groundballs, a critical skill when you`re planning on moving up to Charlotte and, eventually, Chicago. For another, he played professional ball after already having logged 117 innings at TCU, and the White Sox didn`t have him throw his breaking stuff very often. Perhaps as a result of the fatigue, his fastball velocity was erratic; we have reports of his hitting as high as 94 MPH, but he wasn`t there consistently. Broadway is a sleeper, especially in an organization that can afford to treat him carefully over the next year or two.

Pos	Name	IP	GS	ERA	WHIP	H	BB	HR	SO	W	L	SV	VORP
Spot	Lance Broadway	30	5	6.11	1.74	35	16	4	18	1	2	0	-1.2

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	WNS	1C	1	3	0	11	11	55.0	68	20	58	4	53%	.400	-12	1.60	4.58	8.72	7.77	13.5	5.2	5.4	1.3	-11.7		-0.2
2006	BIR	2A	8	8	0	25	25	154.2	160	40	111	10	49%	.316	0	1.30	2.74	5.36	4.80	10.2	2.8	4.1	1.1	13.0		3.7
2006	CHR	3A	0	0	0	1	1	6.0	5	1	6	0	54%	.296	25	1.00	3.00	3.58	4.76	9.5	1.6	6.4	0.0	0.5		0.1
2007	CHR	3A	8	9	0	26	26	155.0	155	78	108	17	49%	.299	-10	1.50	4.65	6.54	6.28	10.1	5.1	4.5	1.5	-10.9		1.6
2007	CHA	MJ	1	1	0	4	1	10.3	5	5	14	0	36%	.238	33	0.97	0.87	2.08	1.69	4.2	3.4	9.3	0.0	5.0	0.5	0.8

Projected Playing Time

Historical Stats