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A.J. Burnett
Toronto Blue Jays [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 31
6' 4"
230 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Blue Jays Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP
Starter-2 A.J. Burnett 185 28 3.83 1.29 170 67 15 165 11 9 0 34.7

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2005 FLO MJ 12 12 0 32 32 209.0 184 79 198 12 60% .304 26 1.26 3.44 3.29 3.99 7.5 3.1 7.8 0.5 30.5 4.6 7.0
2006 DUN 1C 0 0 0 2 2 8.1 9 2 6 0 56% .360 -9 1.36 3.33 6.09 5.14 11.6 3.9 3.9 0.0 0.4 0.1
2006 NHP 2A 1 0 0 1 1 6.1 2 3 9 1 40% .111 16 0.82 1.48 4.26 5.06 5.1 5.1 10.1 3.4 0.3 0.2
2006 SYR 3A 1 0 0 1 1 5.2 0 1 7 0 75% .000 45 0.19 0.00 0.94 0.00 0.0 1.8 9.0 0.0 3.1 0.5
2006 TOR MJ 10 8 0 21 21 135.7 138 39 118 14 53% .317 22 1.30 3.98 4.21 4.18 9.0 2.4 7.4 0.8 25.3 3.0 4.6
2007 SYR 3A 0 0 0 1 1 5.0 3 1 7 0 64% .273 40 0.80 1.80 2.53 1.80 5.4 1.8 9.0 0.0 2.1 0.1
2007 TOR MJ 10 8 0 25 25 165.7 131 66 176 23 56% .262 28 1.19 3.75 3.95 3.75 7.4 3.2 8.9 1.2 37.5 4.3 5.8


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 7:21 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 15 8 0 31 31 206.7 174 68 191 16 53% .279 25 1.17 3.02 2.94 2.97 7.3 2.7 7.2 0.7 63.2 7.9 7.9
75o 13 8 0 29 29 195.7 170 67 179 16 53% .284 24 1.21 3.30 3.13 3.24 7.5 2.8 7.1 0.7 53.3 6.8 6.9
60o 12 9 0 28 28 182.7 165 65 165 15 53% .291 22 1.26 3.63 3.37 3.57 7.8 2.9 7.0 0.7 42.5 5.6 5.8
50o 11 9 0 27 27 175.3 162 64 157 15 53% .294 21 1.29 3.82 3.50 3.75 7.9 3.0 7.0 0.8 36.7 5.0 5.2
40o 10 9 0 26 26 163.0 155 62 144 14 53% .300 19 1.34 4.14 3.73 4.07 8.2 3.2 6.9 0.8 27.8 4.0 4.3
25o 8 9 0 24 24 146.0 146 59 126 14 53% .309 16 1.40 4.59 4.05 4.52 8.6 3.3 6.7 0.8 16.8 2.8 3.1
10o 6 8 0 20 20 116.3 126 52 97 12 53% .323 11 1.53 5.43 4.65 5.33 9.3 3.7 6.5 0.9 1.7 1.1 1.4
Weighted Mean 11 9 0 28 28 182.0 168 67 163 16 53% .294 21 1.29 3.83 3.50 3.76 7.9 3.0 7.0 0.8 34.2 5.2 5.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

19%

54%

18%

15%

1.18

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 31) 11 9 0 28 28 182.0 168 67 163 16 53% .294 21 1.29 3.83 3.50 3.76 7.9 3.0 7.0 0.8 34.2 5.2 5.1
2009 (age 32) 10 9 0 27 27 167.0 162 62 146 16 53% .302 18 1.34 3.94 3.81 3.85 8.3 3.1 6.8 0.8 28.9 4.6 4.4
2010 (age 33) 10 8 0 25 25 158.0 148 59 141 14 53% .297 19 1.31 3.82 3.66 3.73 8.1 3.1 7.0 0.8 26.0 4.5 3.8
2011 (age 34) 9 8 1 32 20 141.0 135 50 124 13 53% .300 13 1.31 3.96 3.69 3.87 8.3 2.9 6.8 0.8 20.3 3.6 3.2
2012 (age 35) 8 8 1 33 19 134.7 130 49 115 13 52% .298 11 1.33 4.12 3.82 4.03 8.3 3.0 6.7 0.9 15.8 3.2 2.6
2013 (age 36) 6 6 1 34 13 105.0 102 40 90 10 52% .300 7 1.35 4.09 3.85 4.00 8.4 3.1 6.7 0.9 13.1 2.3 2.1
2014 (age 37) 3 4 1 21 7 60.7 63 22 52 6 52% .316 6 1.40 4.40 4.14 4.29 9.0 3.0 6.7 0.9 8.3 1.1 1.5

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .242 .332 .358
vs RHB .231 .308 .353
Split +.011 +.024 +.005
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 5.1 $13,200,000 35.5 44.8
2009 4.4 $11,775,000 30.1 36.6
2010 3.8 $10,875,000 27.0 31.5
2011 3.2 $9,100,000 21.2 25.1
2012 2.6 $7,525,000 16.6 18.3
2013 2.1 $6,425,000 13.8 14.9
2014 1.5 $4,400,000 8.9 9.5
Peak 21.2 $48,575,000 130.4 171.2


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 3.24 3.75 4.52 3.76
2009 3.47 3.95 4.77 3.85
2010 3.24 3.98 5.03 3.73
2011 3.33 4.06 5.22 3.87
2012 3.56 4.25 5.13 4.03
2013 3.49 4.38 5.51 4.00
2014 3.81 4.27 5.62 4.29


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 15% 0% 19%
2009 25% 7% 13%
2010 37% 12% 16%
2011 45% 23% 13%
2012 48% 31% 10%
2013 60% 40% 6%
2014 72% 50% 1%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

45

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Matt Clement 2006 46 11 Dave Goltz 1980 34
2 Chris Carpenter 2006 40 12 Bruce Hurst 1989 34
3 Jack Morris 1986 39 13 Chris Bosio 1994 32
4 Roger Clemens 1994 39 14 Jose Guzman 1994 32
5 Jim Beattie 1985 38 15 Kevin Appier 1999 32
6 Kelvim Escobar 2007 38 16 Jose DeLeon 1992 31
7 Andy Messersmith 1977 38 17 Freddy Garcia 2006 31
8 Mike Krukow 1983 37 18 Erik Hanson 1996 31
9 Orel Hershiser 1990 36 19 Bill Singer 1975 30
10 Gaylord Perry 1970 36 20 Jack Billingham 1974 27

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

The first reaction that most people will have to A.J. Burnett`s 2006 is: `see, he got hurt again.` Still, there`s a lot to like about what he accomplished. He kept his ERA under 4.00, which is no small feat pitching in Rogers Centre against AL East opponents. His control numbers were the best of his career. And his mechanics improved in the second half, as he had more time to work with pitching coach Brad Arnsberg. Considering the inflation in the system, Burnett could well provide as much value over the remaining four years of his deal as any pitcher that was on this winter`s market. What, you`d rather have Gil Meche`s contract?

2006

One of the most sought-after free agents in a weak class, Burnett got the big wampum from the Blue Jays, signing for five years and $55 million, also known as `Dreifort Money.` But for being briefly sidelined by some elbow inflammation, Burnett stayed healthy for a change and had one of his strongest campaigns. Other than his history of ill health, Burnett`s fall clashes with management after a rough month were troubling--time has proved Burnett right about the Marlins being mismanaged, but management wasn`t the cause of his 5.93 ERA in September. Finally, as with all pitchers exiting the DH-free league and a friendly ballpark, at least half a run of ERA will be lost in translation.

2005

Burnett came back from Tommy John surgery in just over 13 months to post the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career, and he was devastating for much of the second half. The bad news is that inflammation in the repaired elbow shut him down in early September. No damage was found, and he made a token relief appearance on the last weekend of the season, so he has a green light. He could be a top-10 starter in 2005.

2003

Burnett’s impressive but flawed performance in 2001 was followed up by a very good season last year, and he’s assumed the mantle of Marlins ace. How long he’ll merit that title is a disturbing question; as a 25-year-old, Burnett pitched a league-leading nine games of more than 120 pitches, and he hit the DL in September with a “bone bruise.” Hopefully, Jeff Torborg will realize that Burnett’s health is more important to the franchise than a complete-game shutout with the team 10 games back in August, and go easier on him in 2003.

2002

One of the better mysteries in baseball right now is A.J. Burnett's strikeout rate. He throws hard, with a good knuckle-curve as a pitch he can use for strike three, and he's shown himself to be hard to hit at times. He's a hairsbreadth from exploding on the National League, and he’s a better candidate for the All-Star team this year than Beckett is.

2001

There was some concern that A.J. Burnett would miss the entire season after he ruptured a ligament in his pitching thumb in spring training. Much to management’s delight, he busted his tail in rehab and returned in late July, stronger than he was before the injury. Not surprisingly, he struggled to find a consistent rhythm after returning. The only thing nastier than Burnett’s repertoire (95-octane gas and a Mussina-like spike curve) is his mound personality. I expect him to strike fear in the league in 2001.

2000

There was considerable talk in the spring that Burnett would open the season in the major leagues, jumping from the Midwest League. He ended up at Portland, where he struggled and was eventually removed from the rotation. Burnett throws hard with a knee-buckling curveball and improving change-up and should be up for good by midseason. They’re nipple rings, people: get over it.

1999

A big Arkansas kid, and possibly the best thing they got from the Mets in their various deals. Yes, potentially better than Yarnall. Burnett had a very slow start, missing April and most of May with a broken hand. Coming back on strict pitch counts, he completely dominated the Midwest League. The translation should give you an idea: its extremely difficult to pitch well enough in a low A-league to get something that ends up looking this good. He has good mechanics and a deceptive delivery, throwing hard and mixing in a knuckle-curve and a good change. The future doesn’t get any brighter for a low A-ball pitcher than this.


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