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Miguel Cairo
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
First Base
Bats R
Age 35
6' 1"
210 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 NYA MLB 244 28 12 3 0 30 13 31 13 1 0.9 .239 .280 .320 -.328 .227 .273 .305 .219 -4.1 36-2B 6 11-SS 2 0.4
2007 MEM AAA 38 8 2 0 0 3 5 6 2 0 0.0 .290 .421 .355 -.265 .219 .324 .281 .229 -1.5 0.0
2007 NYA MLB 121 12 7 0 0 10 8 19 8 1 -0.3 .252 .308 .318 -.267 .243 .305 .299 .233 -1.9 18-1B -1 6-SS 2 0.0
2007 SLN MLB 72 8 2 2 0 5 3 5 2 1 -0.2 .254 .296 .343 -.163 .269 .310 .358 .231 -1.3 10-3B 0 5-2B 0 0.0
2008 SEA MLB 250 34 14 2 0 23 18 32 5 2 -0.9 .249 .316 .330 -.160 .259 .325 .345 .240 -4.1 45-1B -6 13-3B 2 -0.7


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 10:17 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 166 31 10 2 1 13 14 20 5 2 0.3 .301 .368 .418 .052 .301 .368 .424 .278 6.1 43-1B 3 0.9
75o 156 25 9 1 1 12 12 20 4 2 0.3 .276 .342 .380 -.062 .277 .343 .386 .258 1.6 41-1B 3 0.5
60o 146 20 7 1 1 11 11 20 4 2 0.3 .256 .321 .348 -.157 .257 .321 .353 .240 -1.8 39-1B 3 0.1
50o 138 16 6 1 1 11 10 20 4 1 0.2 .239 .302 .321 -.238 .239 .303 .326 .224 -4.2 37-1B 2 -0.2
40o 136 15 6 1 1 10 10 20 4 1 0.2 .234 .297 .313 -.261 .234 .297 .318 .220 -4.9 36-1B 2 -0.2
25o 129 13 5 1 0 10 9 20 4 1 0.2 .222 .283 .294 -.319 .222 .284 .298 .207 -6.4 35-1B 2 -0.4
10o 78 4 2 0 0 6 5 15 2 1 0.1 .151 .203 .183 -.649 .151 .204 .186 .109 -9.8 23-1B 1 -0.9
Weighted Mean 116 14 6 1 1 9 9 16 3 1 0.2 .253 .317 .343 -.165 .253 .318 .348 .237 -0.8 32-1B 2 0.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

32%

45%

35%

55%

1.01

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 35) 116 14 6 1 1 9 9 16 3 1 0.2 .253 .317 .343 -.165 .253 .318 .348 .237 -0.8 32-1B 2 0.1
2010 (age 36) 148 19 6 1 1 10 11 19 5 1 0.2 .248 .311 .326 -.227 .245 .307 .326 .233 -1.7 39-1B 2 0.0
2011 (age 37) 129 16 6 1 0 9 10 18 4 0 0.1 .251 .315 .325 -.219 .247 .311 .326 .233 -0.8 35-1B 1 0.0
2012 (age 38)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 40)
-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 41)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .269 .338 .373
vs RHP .248 .308 .329
Split +.021 +.029 +.044
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -4.0 2.0 0.1 $450,000 -0.4 0.6
2010 -5.6 2.0 0.0 $400,000 -1.6 0.4
2011 -4.9 1.0 0.0 $450,000 -0.9 0.4
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --
Peak 0.1 $75,000 0.0 1.6


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .258 .224 .207 .237
2010 .249 .223 .198 .233
2011 .251 .231 .168 .233
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 55% 0% 32%
2010 73% 46% 18%
2011 85% 65% 17%
2012 91% 85% 11%
2013 97% 91% 7%
2014 100% 99% 3%
2015 100% 99% 3%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

33

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Darren Lewis 2002 43 11 Dave Hollins 2001 20
2 Gino Cimoli 1965 42 12 Harry Walker 1951 19
3 Mike Devereaux 1998 37 13 Bert Haas 1949 19
4 John Wathan 1984 34 14 Rich Amaral 1997 18
5 Jim Busby 1962 26 15 Joe Orsulak 1997 17
6 Jeff Cirillo 2004 23 16 Trenidad Hubbard 2001 17
7 Glenn Beckert 1975 23 17 Dickie Thon 1993 16
8 Scott Fletcher 1993 22 18 Andy Etchebarren 1978 16
9 Al Martin 2003 21 19 Mike Mordecai 2003 16
10 Greg Pryor 1984 21 20 Billy Hitchcock 1951 16

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

Another August pickup, Miguel Cairo made some starts at third base after injuries ended Rolen's season early yet again. He still can't hit

2007

The best evidence that a million dollars means less to the Yankees than it does to normal people. What differentiates Cairo from a hundred minor leaguers with his skill set is Yankee management`s peculiar ability to see value in him that isn`t there. He can`t hit, but, for what it`s worth, he did have a good baserunning year. The Yankees decided to wring a final drop of blood from the Cairo stone and brought him back for another season.

2006

It was not the Mets intention to give Cairo this much playing time, but the ever-accelerating disappointment of Kaz Matsui opened the door. That Cairo proved to be slightly more productive is not an endorsement of his season but a further indictment of Matsui`s. Not offered arbitration, Cairo signed on for his second stint with the Yankees in 2006.

2005

A year ago we wrote, "Any team that uses him as a regular isn't serious." The Yankees were even less serious than that, pretending Enrique Wilson was the starter before falling back on Cairo. That Cairo then went out and had a season lodged somewhere between his 75th and 90th percentile PECTOTA forecast was just pure, dumb luck. Expecting it to happen again would be like expecting to win the lottery twice. Cairo is a fine utility player, but that's all. Apparently the Yankees think so too, because they signed Tony Womack to play second. That doesn't make them any more serious than they were last year.

2003

Rarely was so much wishful thinking expended on such an odd, unworthy vessel. The Cardinals wish and sometimes pretend that Cairo is as good as Placido Polanco, but he isn’t. He doesn’t hit, and as he showed in the playoffs, he’s really only an emergency third baseman—if he plays anywhere other than second, he’s trouble. Why the Cardinals set up their postseason roster to carry Cairo and Wilson Delgado, and not anyone who could hit, is one of those little annoying areas where you wish that Jocketty would reign in LaRussa’s fascination with players about as good as LaRussa was.

2002

Cairo represents another type of player that Tony LaRussa likes. He can play second base very well, third base slightly less so, he puts the ball in play, and he can run a little. The Cardinals are collecting these guys like they're expecting a rule change that will force defenders to switch positions for each batter. Cairo has more name value than some of the others, so he might be moved or end up somewhere else in February.

2001

Never one of our favorites, Miguel Cairo wore out his welcome in Tampa Bay this year, taking criticism for the way he did the "little things." He was released at the end of the season. He's not good enough to be a regular, and he doesn't have a utility infielder's skills, so his career hangs by a thread.

2000

An undisciplined slap-hitter, Cairo is a novelty because he uses a split grip at the plate. His greatest assets are his speed and range, both of which were limited last year by hamstring injuries in both legs. Deceived by his batting average, the Devil Rays consider him a solution, not a problem. Rumors persist that he will be traded to the Angels.

1999

The Tampa Bay prototype: Small. Fast. Good glove. Hacker at the plate. He did exactly as well as should have been expected. It wasn't worth all that much, and won't get much better.

1998

The All-Star second baseman in the American Association, Cairo was the first Cub taken in the Expansion Draft, by Tampa Bay. He’s a good defender, fast, and showed some line drive sock at Iowa with 35 doubles. He’s projected as the Devil Rays’ starter.

1997

Although his defense wins rave reviews, Cairo’s bat is so weak that he’s in no better position to take hold of the second base position than any of the other Blue Jays’ options. For whatever reason, Cairo was named a top 10 prospect in the California League in ’94, which probably tells us more about how easy it is for Dodgers to make those lists than it does about Cairo’s talent.


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