Luke Carlin

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Projected Playing Time
Diamondbacks Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)

Pos Order Name PT% PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP

C 8 Luke Carlin 5 11 .200 1 0 1 0 .300 .292 -0.3

1 2009 Total 5 11 .200 1 0 1 0 .300 .292 -0.3

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	POR	AAA	297	27	14	1	4	29	49	54	0	0	0.0	.266	.392	.381	-.143	.231	.347	.339	.249	-2.0	71-C -1	0.9
2007	POR	AAA	353	35	20	2	0	17	47	77	0	3	-0.2	.220	.326	.300	-.414	.179	.280	.244	.185	-29.3	79-C -1 5-2B -2	-1.7
2008	POR	AAA	111	12	3	0	4	19	19	27	0	0	-0.5	.261	.396	.432	-.168	.217	.339	.337	.248	-1.5	26-C -2	0.1
2008	SDN	MLB	105	12	3	1	1	6	10	34	0	0	0.3	.149	.238	.234	-.521	.149	.238	.234	.156	-7.7	29-C -1	-0.7

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 12:29 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	268	45	16	2	8	30	39	64	2	1	-0.2	.274	.385	.466	.078	.267	.376	.454	.289	15.7	66-C 0	2.6
75^o	248	35	14	1	6	26	34	60	1	1	-0.2	.255	.361	.423	-.029	.248	.353	.413	.269	8.4	61-C -1	1.7
60^o	236	30	13	1	5	24	31	57	1	0	-0.2	.244	.347	.399	-.089	.238	.340	.389	.257	4.6	59-C -1	1.3
50^o	225	26	12	1	5	22	28	55	1	0	-0.2	.235	.335	.379	-.141	.229	.328	.370	.247	1.7	56-C -2	0.9
40^o	208	20	10	1	4	19	24	52	1	0	-0.2	.221	.316	.346	-.224	.215	.309	.338	.229	-2.4	52-C -2	0.4
25^o	191	16	9	1	3	17	21	48	0	0	-0.2	.208	.300	.318	-.295	.203	.293	.311	.212	-5.4	49-C -3	0.0
10^o	107	4	4	0	0	7	9	29	0	0	-0.1	.163	.235	.216	-.562	.158	.230	.211	.128	-9.7	30-C -4	-0.9
Weighted Mean	195	21	10	1	4	19	25	48	1	0	-0.2	.239	.340	.387	-.077	.233	.333	.378	.251	5.0	49-C -1	1.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
69%	75%	18%	48%	1.12

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 28)	195	21	10	1	4	19	25	48	1	0	-0.2	.239	.340	.387	-.077	.233	.333	.378	.251	5.0	49-C -1	1.0
2010 (age 29)	176	17	8	1	4	17	22	42	1	0	-0.1	.218	.318	.353	-.229	.209	.307	.340	.232	-1.4	45-C 0	0.6
2011 (age 30)	167	17	8	1	4	18	20	42	1	0	-0.1	.240	.338	.399	-.125	.231	.326	.384	.252	2.1	43-C 0	0.8
2012 (age 31)	151	14	7	0	4	15	20	38	0	0	0.0	.220	.328	.376	-.181	.211	.316	.362	.243	0.2	40-C -1	0.4
2013 (age 32)	200	22	9	1	5	21	27	45	1	0	0.0	.227	.336	.374	-.168	.218	.324	.360	.245	0.5	51-C -2	0.4
2014 (age 33)	226	26	11	1	4	22	30	54	1	0	0.0	.236	.343	.370	-.154	.227	.331	.356	.248	0.8	56-C -2	0.4
2015 (age 34)	148	14	5	0	4	15	20	39	0	0	0.0	.219	.328	.365	-.196	.211	.316	.352	.240	0.0	39-C -2	0.2

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.244	.338	.380
vs RHP	.237	.342	.392
Split	+.006	-.004	-.013
LgAvg	+.004	-.004	+.007

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	3.1	-1.0	1.0	$1,375,000	2.9	6.8
2010	-0.5	0.0	0.6	$850,000	-2.2	3.5
2011	3.0	0.0	0.8	$1,250,000	1.3	5.8
2012	1.3	-1.0	0.4	$875,000	-1.0	2.5
2013	2.1	-2.0	0.4	$975,000	-0.2	2.0
2014	3.1	-2.0	0.4	$1,025,000	-0.2	1.1
2015	0.8	-2.0	0.2	$850,000	-1.2	0.8
Peak			3.5	$3,075,000	0.7	21.7

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.269	.247	.212	.251
2010	.254	.222	.166	.232
2011	.275	.232	.201	.252
2012	.259	.232	.190	.243
2013	.267	.238	.216	.245
2014	.275	.250	.222	.248
2015	.275	.244	.198	.240

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	48%	0%	69%
2010	61%	20%	47%
2011	66%	30%	49%
2012	77%	44%	40%
2013	77%	55%	43%
2014	76%	60%	44%
2015	84%	65%	40%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

37

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Tim Blackwell	1981	52		11	Darren Daulton	1990	28
2	Marcus Jensen	2001	52		12	Hobie Landrith	1958	27
3	George Williams	1997	51		13	Sandy Martinez	1999	26
4	Chad Kreuter	1993	46		14	Henry Blanco	2000	25
5	Kelly Stinnett	1998	44		15	Don Werner	1981	25
6	Mike O'Berry	1982	42		16	Alan Ashby	1980	25
7	Chris Bando	1984	37		17	Gregg Zaun	1999	25
8	Jeff Tackett	1994	33		18	Doug Camilli	1965	24
9	Raul Casanova	2001	32		19	Choo Choo Coleman	1966	23
10	Mark L. Johnson	2004	32		20	Biff Pocoroba	1982	21

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