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Royce Clayton
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Shortstop
Bats R
Age 38
6'
200 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 ARI MJ 573 59 28 4 2 44 38 105 13 3 1.3 .270 .320 .351 -.109 .265 .319 .345 .238 7.3 131-SS -7 2.8
2006 WAS MJ 338 36 22 1 0 27 19 53 8 3 -1.4 .269 .315 .348 -.129 .277 .321 .362 .244 1.9 82-SS 1 2.4
2006 CIN MJ 164 13 8 0 2 13 11 32 6 3 0.0 .235 .290 .329 -.245 .233 .293 .333 .222 -3.8 38-SS -4 0.6
2007 PAW 3A 30 2 3 0 0 3 2 10 0 0 -0.1 .143 .200 .250 -.485 .143 .200 .250 .136 -4.0 -0.2
2007 TOR MJ 210 23 14 0 1 12 14 50 2 1 -0.2 .254 .304 .344 -.188 .262 .319 .358 .242 -1.6 56-SS 1 1.5
2007 BOS MJ 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0.0 .000 .000 .000 -1.334 .000 .000 .000 .000 -1.6 0.0


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 8:10 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 204 26 15 1 3 21 14 41 4 1 -0.2 .290 .342 .420 .015 .282 .339 .429 .272 8.8 51-SS -4 1.6
75o 188 19 12 1 2 18 12 39 3 1 -0.2 .258 .308 .363 -.143 .251 .305 .370 .242 1.1 48-SS -4 0.9
60o 183 17 11 1 1 17 11 39 3 1 -0.2 .249 .299 .347 -.185 .243 .296 .354 .233 -0.7 47-SS -4 0.7
50o 179 15 10 0 1 17 11 38 3 1 -0.1 .242 .291 .333 -.222 .235 .288 .341 .225 -2.3 46-SS -4 0.5
40o 174 14 9 0 1 16 10 37 3 1 -0.1 .233 .281 .318 -.264 .227 .278 .325 .216 -4.0 45-SS -4 0.4
25o 151 8 6 0 0 12 8 34 2 1 -0.1 .200 .244 .256 -.430 .194 .242 .262 .173 -9.4 39-SS -3 -0.2
10o 123 5 4 0 0 8 6 29 1 1 -0.1 .171 .212 .205 -.568 .167 .210 .209 .121 -11.8 33-SS -3 -0.5
Weighted Mean 177 15 10 0 1 17 11 38 3 1 -0.1 .239 .288 .329 -.234 .233 .285 .336 .222 -2.5 45-SS -4 0.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

22%

44%

35%

47%

1.08

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 38) 177 15 10 0 1 17 11 38 3 1 -0.1 .239 .288 .329 -.234 .233 .285 .336 .222 -2.5 45-SS -4 0.9
2009 (age 39) 155 13 8 0 1 16 9 34 2 1 -0.1 .249 .297 .338 -.200 .246 .298 .352 .229 -0.6 40-SS -2 0.4
2010 (age 40)
-- out of baseball --
2011 (age 41)
-- out of baseball --
2012 (age 42)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 43)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 44)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .253 .310 .357
vs RHP .235 .280 .316
Split +.018 +.030 +.042
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.0 1.0 0.9 $975,000 -4.5 0.3
2009 0.0 0.4 0.4 $550,000 -1.0 0.7
2010 0.0 0.1 0.1 $425,000 -0.9 0.2
2011 0.0 0.1 0.1 $450,000 0.1 0.2
2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 $425,000 -0.4 0.0
2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 $425,000 0.0 0.0
2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 $450,000 0.0 0.0
Peak 1.5 $775,000 0.0 1.5


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .242 .225 .173 .222
2009 .257 .225 .204 .229
2010
-- out of baseball --
2011
-- out of baseball --
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 47% 0% 22%
2009 82% 51% 15%
2010 94% 77% 7%
2011 98% 91% 5%
2012 100% 93% 3%
2013 100% 100% 1%
2014 100% 99% 0%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

A shadow of a once useful player, and now the second entry under `Mostly Harmless` in The Hitchhiker`s Guide to the Galaxy. At this point, his skills are limited to running the bases well, dropping bunts on command, and playing a merely functional short. Bound for Toronto and a battle for playing time, at least he`ll not be in any danger of being tarred and feathered for being part of the Kearns/Lopez deal.

2006

Baseball is a simple game. You hit the ball, you catch the ball, you throw the ball. Clayton`s ability to do all three declined once again, though the "you have to watch him play every day" camp might disagree. While his defensive reputation is still intact, and fans still point to the (increasingly) occasional highlight-reel play, most defensive metrics (Clay Davenport`s numbers, Ultimate Zone Rating, Range Factor) show him as squarely middle-of-the-road, if not bottom-of-the-barrel. Cintron could have done the same job for less money. In fact, he did. Clayton wasn`t offered arbitration, so in 2006 he`ll join his fifth team in five years.

2005

An aging defensive specialist hits .279/.338/.397 in Coors Field, and his defense deteriorates due to age in front of the eyes of a dwindling fan base. The obvious thing to do? Let him go. The Rockies nailed this one, letting Clayton leave for grayer pastures in Arizona, where he signed a one-year deal for $1.35 million. You know what he'll do.

2003

Clayton was one of the worst players in the majors in 2002. That said, he is the kind of player you might take a chance on if you need leather at short and can deal with light offensive contributions. Clayton’s last year was bad enough that he stood a chance of scaring that market away, leaving him the rare veteran bit player that comes cheap enough to make him worth the bother. It didn’t happen this time; the Brewers will be paying him too much to start for them at short in 2003.

2002

Know any people who can't resist a bargain? Ooh, there's a '30% Off' sale at "Useless Crap'R'Us!" They buy things just because the price is right, irrespective of whether they need or want the items. It's the thrill of the buy, of getting something at less than cost. That's how Kenny Williams ended up with Royce Clayton. The price was a couple of B-/C+ arms, because the Rangers had just signed Alex Rodriguez. Of course, the Sox didn't need a shortstop—Jose Valentin had just re-upped for three seasons—and even if they had needed one, they certainly didn't need Royce Clayton. Clayton was terrible in the first half, helping bury the Sox. His big second half helped them get over .500, but on the whole, he was the shortstop equivalent of a set of hand-stitched leg warmers going for $4.99 a pair.

2001

Ugggg. PAX-TV had a better season than Royce Clayton, behind such fine family fare as Diagnosis Murder and Pablum Theatre. At the end of 1999, Clayton appeared to have turned an offensive corner, posting career highs in OBP and slugging average. As it turns out, the improvement was short-lived, and his season was effectively a total loss. He had identical extra-base-hit numbers in 1999 and 2000 but lost ten singles and made an extra 50 outs. Barring another run-in with the gentleman below, expect a mild comeback in 2001.

2000

A shoulder injury hampered both his fielding and hitting in the first half (639 pre-break OPS). After the break, he joined the growing list of players converting to the new Sam Bat, and he suddenly started hitting like he wanted to join the Jeter/Rodriguez/Garciaparra club (912 post-break OPS). With the shoulder problem behind him, I think there's a good chance we'll see a career year from Clayton in 2000.

1999

One of the top few fielding shortstops in the game, by reputation and by numbers. The only questions are the bat and the price tag. Is the difference between him and Elster (or him and Sheldon) worth Tatis? At $5 million a year? My answers: no, no, and no.

1998

Clayton will wind up being one of the unrecognized defensive greats: the window of opportunity for him to get recognized with at least a Gold Glove never existed, because of Barry Larkin and now the Rey Ordonez publicity machine. Unlike Ordonez, he’s a ballplayer.

1997

An absolute disaster as the leadoff man. He had a .321 OBP on the season, .314 when batting leadoff. He handled the LaRussa-Smith war as well as you could hope. Clayton is an excellent defensive player, but the Cardinals are touting him as an up and coming young player, when he’s at the peak of his career right now; to hope for more offense is unrealistic.

1996

A poor hitter even by shortstop standards, Royce has been anointed to take over the position long held by Ozzie Smith is St. Louis. His defense is well-regarded, but hardly overwhelming. Of course, he does meet the Cardinal credo of speed.


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